Italian大奖赛Monza
2026 Italian Grand Prix 比赛结果:Autodromo Nazionale di Monza 站正赛全记录、领奖台、排位赛、最快单圈、进站与分段用时,以及我们的 AI 预测得分情况。日期:2026年9月6日。
预测结论
AI 未预测到胜者。
- P1ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedesLeclercCharles Leclerc未命中
- P2RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELLMercedesRussellGeorge Russell已命中
- P3VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull RacingHamiltonLewis Hamilton未命中
得分板。
轮到你了
下一站: United States GP
锁定倒计时
结果对比 AI 预测
关键时刻
Kimi Antonelli delivers a historic masterclass at Monza, charging from 19th on the grid to conquer his home Italian Grand Prix for Mercedes.
- 第 2 圈Charles Leclerc crashes heavily at the Parabolica after intense battles, bringing out a red flag.Ended Ferrari's home hopes early and reset the field with a standing restart.
- 第 6 圈The race resumes with a standing restart, where Kimi Antonelli starts his charge from 12th on medium tires.Launched Antonelli's meteoric rise through the field into the points and lead fight.
- 第 18 圈Kimi Antonelli overtakes George Russell to briefly take the lead in a fierce Mercedes intra-team duel.Highlighted the intense battle at the front before team management stepped in to calm the 'yo-yoing'.
- 第 28 圈A Virtual Safety Car is deployed following Lance Stroll's retirement, prompting Antonelli to pit for fresh mediums.Provided the definitive strategic turning point, leaving Russell exposed on aging hard tires.
- 第 50 圈Antonelli successfully hunts down and passes Russell for the lead in the closing stages.Sealed a fairytale home victory and broke Italy's 60-year win drought at Monza.
车手对决。
Gasly starts from pole position while Colapinto lines up in P8, giving Gasly a massive track-position advantage at Monza.
Alonso starts ahead of Stroll (P21 vs P22) and holds a dominant 8-2 head-to-head advantage in qualifying this season.
Bortoleto starts from P11, outqualifying Hulkenberg in P13, and will look to maintain the upper hand on race day.
Bottas starts from P19 just ahead of Perez in P20, and holds a slight grid advantage for the start.
Leclerc starts from P4 right ahead of Hamilton in P5, and has shown strong race pace throughout the weekend.
Bearman starts from P12 while Ocon lines up further back in P16, giving Bearman a clear edge on track position.
Piastri qualifies up in P3 compared to Norris in P9, putting him in a much stronger position to dictate his race.
Russell starts on the front row in P2, ahead of Antonelli in P7, and has been exceptionally sharp all weekend.
Lindblad starts in P10 inside the top ten, giving him track position over Lawson who starts down in P14.
Verstappen starts from P6 with superior pace and experience, heavily favored over his teammate.
Sainz starts in P15 ahead of Albon in P18, continuing his strong qualifying advantage over his teammate.
比赛周末
- 赛事回放观看回放单圈排名、时间差与旗语AI预测
最终预测。
杆位预测P1RussellGeorge RussellMercedes72%P2LeclercCharles LeclercFerrari68%P3AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes64%George Russell topped FP2 with a stellar lap and has consistently demonstrated superior single-lap execution on low-downforce permanent circuits, maximizing the Mercedes package.
天气预测DRY气温34°C赛道温度48°C降雨3%风速8 km/h赛道事件红旗yes#车手车队信心信心指数P4NorrisLando NorrisMcLaren61%P5HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari57%P6PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren53%P7VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing49%P8HadjarIsack HadjarRed Bull Racing44%P9LawsonLiam LawsonRacing Bulls41%P10LindbladArvid LindbladRacing Bulls38%冷门出局Nico HulkenbergQ1 阶段出局: Audi struggled to find clean air during the chaotic slipstream sorting in Q1, leading to an unexpected early exit.快速数据杆位差距0.082更多预测Q1最快Charles Leclerc (0.124s)Q2最快George Russell (0.065s)冠军车队Mercedes排位赛结果赛果回顾。
#车手车队Q1Q2Q3P1GASLYPierre GASLYAlpine22.6121:22.61222.0771:22.07721.7861:21.786P2RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELLMercedes22.7791:22.77922.1611:22.16121.8461:21.846P3PIASTRIOscar PIASTRIMcLaren22.9241:22.92422.0171:22.01721.9661:21.966P4LECLERCCharles LECLERCFerrari22.9021:22.90222.5091:22.50922.0041:22.004P5HAMILTONLewis HAMILTONFerrari22.8471:22.84722.5161:22.51622.0111:22.011P6VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull Racing22.6311:22.63122.1881:22.18822.0701:22.070P7ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedes22.7581:22.75821.8821:21.88222.0931:22.093P8COLAPINTOFranco COLAPINTOAlpine22.6621:22.66222.4001:22.40022.2201:22.220P9NORRISLando NORRISMcLaren22.6591:22.65922.0671:22.06722.2561:22.256P10LINDBLADArvid LINDBLADRacing Bulls22.7271:22.72722.3451:22.34522.2861:22.286P11BORTOLETOGabriel BORTOLETO退赛 Q2Audi22.9461:22.94622.5171:22.517–P12BEARMANOliver BEARMAN退赛 Q2Haas F1 Team22.9061:22.90622.7561:22.756–P13HULKENBERGNico HULKENBERG退赛 Q2Audi23.4401:23.44022.7791:22.779–P14LAWSONLiam LAWSON退赛 Q2Red Bull Racing22.9891:22.98922.8211:22.821–P15SAINZCarlos SAINZ退赛 Q2Williams23.6161:23.61623.4531:23.453–P16OCONEsteban OCON退赛 Q2Haas F1 Team23.4661:23.46623.4541:23.454–P17TSUNODAYuki TSUNODA嘉宾退赛 Q1Racing Bulls23.7551:23.755––P18ALBONAlexander ALBON退赛 Q1Williams24.3561:24.356––P19BOTTASValtteri BOTTAS退赛 Q1Cadillac24.3641:24.364––P20PEREZSergio PEREZ退赛 Q1Cadillac24.5951:24.595––P21ALONSOFernando ALONSO退赛 Q1Aston Martin25.1501:25.150––P22STROLLLance STROLL退赛 Q1Aston Martin25.2221:25.222––天气干地气温34°C赛道温度53.8°C湿度34%风速1.3 km/h预测准确率得分板。
预测准确率预测 vs 实际指标预测值实际值结果淘汰预测Q1Q2差距0.08s0.17s赛道状况drydry温度34°34°红旗yesno预测判断杆位Q1 最快Q2 最快前 560%车队车队预测8/11 次预测对决8/11队友对决车手对决。
车手比赛结果Gasly holds a strong 7-3 qualifying head-to-head advantage this season and benefits from an under-rating correction that points to superior one-lap execution over Colapinto.
Alonso dominates the intra-team battle 8-2 and consistently extracts maximum pace from the car in qualifying compared to Stroll.
Hulkenberg leads 6-5 head-to-head and showed stronger pace in Friday practice sessions at Monza.
Perez leads the head-to-head 6-4 and Bottas carries a heavy model bias correction indicating over-projected performance.
Leclerc edges the season head-to-head 6-5 and showcased sharper single-lap speed during Friday practice at Monza.
Bearman commands an 8-3 head-to-head lead and was significantly faster than Ocon across the practice sessions.
Norris leads the intra-team qualifying battle 7-4 and consistently finds extra tenths in high-stakes qualifying sessions.
Russell topped FP2 at Monza and possesses the outright one-lap pace to edge out his teammate in qualifying.
Lindblad showed impressive speed in practice (P7 in FP2) and benefits from model under-rating corrections favoring his recent momentum.
Verstappen maintains a clear qualifying superiority and experience advantage over rookie teammate Hadjar.
Sainz commands a crushing 9-1 qualifying head-to-head record over Albon, making him the heavy favorite.
AI排位赛分析赛后复盘。
Pierre Gasly stuns the Formula 1 paddock at Monza with a breathtaking maiden pole position for Alpine.The Autodromo Nazionale Monza played host to one of the most astonishing qualifying sessions in recent memory as Pierre Gasly claimed a sensational maiden pole position for Alpine. Right from the outset, the high-speed Temple of Speed witnessed frantic games of tactical cat-and-mouse as teams hunted desperately for the ultimate aerodynamic tow. Gasly immediately threw down the gauntlet by topping Q1, showcasing unexpected pace from the Mercedes-powered Alpine package alongside teammate Franco Colapinto. As the session progressed into Q2, local favorites Ferrari sent shockwaves through the grandstands by flirting with absolute disaster. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton scraped through to the pole shootout by the narrowest of margins imaginable—Leclerc was just eight thousandths ahead of Audi's Gabriel Bortoleto in P11, while Hamilton squeaked through by a single millisecond. Meanwhile, traffic woes bit hard elsewhere; Liam Lawson encountered a badly timed delay involving Oscar Piastri, ending his competitive Q2 run and depriving Red Bull of a crucial towing partner for Max Verstappen. The stage was set for a blistering Q3 shootout where slipstream execution dictated the pecking order. George Russell briefly looked to have seized pole for Mercedes after utilizing a well-calculated tow. However, Gasly crossed the line moments later, piecing together a flawless final lap to post a 1:21.786. Edging out Russell by just 0.060 seconds, the Frenchman delivered a historic performance, leaving Oscar Piastri third, Ferrari fourth and fifth, and the paddock stunned. Kimi Antonelli finished seventh fastest, though power-unit penalties will shake up the official starting grid.策略Monza's unique low-downforce demands turned qualifying into a delicate exercise of track position and towing mathematics. Teams spent the afternoon jockeying for space, using teammates as tactical battering rams down the long straights to unlock crucial tenths. Alpine mastered this delicate choreography better than anyone, successfully orchestrating the gap for Gasly to reap maximum aerodynamic benefits without overheating his tires in dirty air. Conversely, timing errors and traffic congestion proved costly for several front-running squads. Ferrari's inability to generate clean air during Q2 nearly proved fatal, leaving their drivers vulnerable to track evolution as the asphalt gripped up. Teams will now have to pivot their data toward race strategy, balancing low-downforce setup compromises against the inevitable DRS trains on Sunday afternoon.关键时刻Q1Pierre Gasly tops Q1 ahead of Max Verstappen and Lando Norris, signaling Alpine's genuine pace.Set the tone for an incredible afternoon for the Enstone squad as they mastered slipstream spacing.Q2Ferrari survives a major Q2 scare as Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton sneak through by 0.008s and 0.001s respectively over Gabriel Bortoleto.The Scuderia narrowly avoided a catastrophic double elimination at their home grand prix.Q2Liam Lawson suffers a Q2 elimination after hitting traffic from Oscar Piastri on his final run.Prevented Lawson from providing a vital tow to Max Verstappen and triggered a stewards' investigation for Piastri.Q3Pierre Gasly pulls off a masterclass final run in Q3, snatching pole by 0.060 seconds from George Russell.Secured the first pole position of Gasly's career, Alpine's first as a rebranded entity, and France's first at Monza since 1997.AI 车手之选Franco ColapintoBacked up his teammate brilliantly all afternoon, securing a stellar top-eight grid slot and proving Alpine's raw pace was no fluke.AI 预测回顾Our predictions faced a severe reality check as Monza's chaotic slipstream dynamics and an inspired performance from Alpine upended the expected order, yielding a low accuracy score of 0.35.命中: We successfully anticipated that Mercedes would be a major factor at the sharp end, with George Russell contending directly for the front row.失误: We completely underestimated Alpine's single-lap pace and tactical tow execution, missing Pierre Gasly's stunning surge to pole position and predicting an early exit for Nico Hulkenberg instead of his Q2 appearance. - 赛事回放观看回放单圈排名、时间差与旗语AI预测
最终预测。
FP2后领奖台预测P1LeclercCharles LeclercFerrari67%P2RussellGeorge RussellMercedes58%P3HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari44%Charles Leclerc capitalizes on strong home-race pace and Ferrari's upgrade package, controlling the race from the front after executing a flawless strategy in extreme heat.
模型预测随周末进程不断优化:早期版本准确率为 26%,最终版本为 32%,并在起步前 46 小时锁定。
天气预测DRY气温34°C赛道温度56°C降雨2%风速7 km/h赛道事件安全车×1yesVSC×1yes红旗no#车手车队信心信心指数P4NorrisLando NorrisMcLaren52%P5PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren39%P6AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes63%P7VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing41%P8LawsonLiam LawsonRacing Bulls29%P9LindbladArvid LindbladRacing Bulls22%P10BortoletoGabriel BortoletoAudi18%观赛看点◆Extreme track temperatures and FIA heat hazard declaration impacting tire management◆Ferrari's major aerodynamic upgrade package working effectively at Monza◆Kimi Antonelli serving a grid penalty following an engine change, opening up the front row爆冷潜力Arvid LindbladArvid Lindblad avoids early traffic chaos at the Variante del Rettifilo and extracts superior long-run pace to break into the top ten.快速数据获胜优势4.2完赛排名20更多预测最快圈速Charles Leclerc冠军车队Ferrari最快圈车队Ferrari进站策略最先进站Franco Colapinto最后进站Fernando Alonso最快进站Ferrari车队预测车队前三名前六名积分完赛Ferrari✓✓✓✓Mercedes–✓✓✓McLaren–✓✓✓Red Bull Racing–––✓Racing Bulls––✓✓Alpine–––✓Audi–––✓Haas F1 Team–––✓Williams–––✓Aston Martin–––✓Cadillac–––✓预测分析盘口概率预测Will the WDC points gap between Kimi Antonelli and Lewis Hamilton shrink by more than 5 points?74%是Will Max Verstappen record a DNF?18%否Will more than 3 drivers incur grid penalties for power unit component changes?82%是Will there be a lead change in the final 10 laps?68%是Will the pole sitter win the race?46%否Will there be more than 1 full Safety Car deployment during the race?22%否Will the race winner set the Fastest Lap?38%否Will a driver from outside the top 3 constructors (Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren) finish on the podium?34%否趣味预测类别投注概率选择混乱事件Will a car take an unscheduled shortcut through the Variante del Rettifilo escape road during the race?75%是 ✓名人Will the broadcast cut to an Italian celebrity wearing designer sunglasses in the paddock during the race?65%是 ✓文化Will passionate Tifosi successfully scale the pit straight catch-fences before the podium ceremony?95%是 ✓AI正赛分析赛后复盘。
Kimi Antonelli delivers a historic masterclass at Monza, charging from 19th on the grid to conquer his home Italian Grand Prix for Mercedes.The 2026 Italian Grand Prix delivered a chaotic and historic thriller at the Autodromo Nazionale Monza, headlined by an unforgettable home victory for Mercedes' Kimi Antonelli. Starting down in 19th after taking a back-of-the-grid engine penalty, Antonelli faced a monumental task, while polesitter Pierre Gasly led the field away at the start. Drama struck early on Lap 2 when Ferrari's Charles Leclerc suffered a massive crash at the Parabolica following a fierce multi-car skirmish, bringing out a red flag and dashing Ferrari’s early hopes. At the standing restart on Lap 6, Antonelli began a breathtaking recovery drive on medium tires, slicing through the pack to enter the podium hunt by Lap 14. George Russell and Max Verstappen initially disputed the lead, but Antonelli soon injected himself into the battle, trading blows with his teammate in a fierce sequence of wheel-to-wheel combat. As the race entered its middle phase, Mercedes engineered a temporary ceasefire to manage gaps, but the ultimate strategic pivot arrived on Lap 28 when Lance Stroll's retirement triggered a Virtual Safety Car. While race-leader Russell stayed out on aging hard compounds, Antonelli pitted for fresh medium rubber, wiping out a deficit and setting up a thrilling chase to the checkered flag. Despite a minor excursion through the gravel during his initial assault, Antonelli hunted down Russell and seized the lead on Lap 50, crossing the line to become the first Italian winner at Monza since 1966. Russell settled for second ahead of Verstappen, capping off an extraordinary afternoon of racing.策略Mercedes split their strategic focus during the race's defining phases. While George Russell attempted to coast on a one-stop strategy by staying out on hard tires, the deployment of the Virtual Safety Car on Lap 28 offered a critical window of opportunity. Antonelli and his pit wall capitalized perfectly by diving into the pits for fresh medium tires. Although it initially handed Russell a gap, the severe degradation on Russell's aging rubber completely shifted the performance balance. Antonelli's superior late-race pace allowed him to erase the deficit and make the decisive pass in the dying laps.关键时刻第 2 圈Charles Leclerc crashes heavily at the Parabolica after intense battles, bringing out a red flag.Ended Ferrari's home hopes early and reset the field with a standing restart.第 6 圈The race resumes with a standing restart, where Kimi Antonelli starts his charge from 12th on medium tires.Launched Antonelli's meteoric rise through the field into the points and lead fight.第 18 圈Kimi Antonelli overtakes George Russell to briefly take the lead in a fierce Mercedes intra-team duel.Highlighted the intense battle at the front before team management stepped in to calm the 'yo-yoing'.第 28 圈A Virtual Safety Car is deployed following Lance Stroll's retirement, prompting Antonelli to pit for fresh mediums.Provided the definitive strategic turning point, leaving Russell exposed on aging hard tires.第 50 圈Antonelli successfully hunts down and passes Russell for the lead in the closing stages.Sealed a fairytale home victory and broke Italy's 60-year win drought at Monza.当日最佳车手Kimi AntonelliFans overwhelmingly voted for Antonelli after his sensational, historic charge from 19th on the grid to win his home race.AI 车手之选Kimi AntonelliAn extraordinary recovery from the back of the grid under intense pressure, capped off by flawless tire management and decisive late-race overtakes.AI 预测回顾Our pre-race predictions achieved an overall accuracy score of 0.37, struggling to foresee Ferrari's early disaster and Antonelli's historic surge from the back.命中: We correctly anticipated the deployment of a safety car (and Virtual Safety Car) amid Monza's high-speed chaos, accurately capturing the race's neutralisation dynamics.失误: We heavily favored Charles Leclerc and Ferrari for the win and a dominant home podium, missing Leclerc's early crash and Antonelli's miraculous recovery from 19th.
练习赛
- 第一次练习赛最快圈速: Charles LECLERCAI 预测失误
- 第二次练习赛最快圈速: George RUSSELLAI 预测失误
- 第三次练习赛最快圈速: George RUSSELLAI 预测正确
自由练习赛 1
最终预测。
Ferrari is bringing a significant power unit upgrade to their home race, and with the high-speed nature of Monza, Lewis Hamilton is well-positioned to leverage the extra performance in FP1.
FP1结果。
得分板。
车手对决。
Paul Aron is a reserve driver stepping in for FP1, while Franco Colapinto has the full-time race experience and is already adapted to the current 2026 car setup.
Alonso consistently outperforms Stroll in pace and technical feedback, and his experience will be critical on the low-downforce setup required for Monza.
Hulkenberg's experience in setting up cars for low-downforce, high-speed tracks like Monza typically gives him the edge in practice sessions over the younger Bortoleto.
Perez generally holds a slight qualifying-pace advantage and tends to be more aggressive in FP1, whereas Bottas often takes a more measured approach.
With the new Ferrari engine upgrade debuting, both drivers will be highly competitive, but Hamilton's feedback on power-unit integration often gives him a slight edge in early Friday sessions.
Bearman has shown strong one-lap pace this season and often carries momentum into FP1, whereas Ocon tends to focus more heavily on long-run stability.
Norris is in excellent form and McLaren's new low-drag wing package typically benefits his driving style; he will likely prioritize maximizing the upgrade's potential.
Antonelli has been dominant in FP1 sessions this season and will be pushing hard to make an impression at his home grand prix, despite his upcoming grid penalty.
Lawson has a significant experience advantage and better consistency in adapting to high-speed track layouts compared to rookie teammate Lindblad.
Max Verstappen is sitting out FP1 for a young driver rotation, leaving Hadjar as the clear lead driver for this session.
Sainz has a clear performance advantage in the H2H standings this season and is highly effective at extracting maximum pace from the car on low-downforce setups.
赛后复盘。
自由练习赛 2
最终预测。
Charles Leclerc topped FP1 and Ferrari traditionally shows strong outright single-lap pace at Monza, making them the favorite to lead FP2.
FP2结果。
得分板。
车手对决。
Gasly holds the upper hand in qualifying head-to-head metrics and season experience within the Alpine package, giving him the edge in single-lap pace during FP2.
Alonso's strong historical edge and superior seasonal qualifying form over Stroll make him the clear favorite to extract more pace from the Aston Martin on a high-speed permanent circuit.
Hulkenberg maintains a tight edge in their season qualifying head-to-head and brings valuable experience to setting up the car for Monza's low-downforce demands.
Despite past bias adjustments, Perez has a slight statistical edge in qualifying head-to-head metrics for Cadillac and should edge Bottas in overall single-lap simulation speed.
Leclerc topped FP1 at home soil in Monza and boasts strong single-lap prowess, giving him a slight advantage over Hamilton in high-speed FP2 runs.
Bearman leads their intra-team qualifying battle decisively this season and continues to show strong one-lap pace capability in the Haas.
Norris's formidable championship form and superior head-to-head qualifying record position him to extract peak performance out of the McLaren during FP2.
Antonelli has shown brilliant one-lap form this season and leads the Mercedes qualifying head-to-head battle, making him a slight favorite for top-timesheet positioning.
Lawson holds a steady edge in the overall season head-to-head metrics for the RB package, giving him a reliable advantage in practice session progression.
Verstappen retains a commanding internal advantage in Red Bull machinery, routinely outperforming his teammate on raw pace across all practice conditions.
Sainz has heavily dominated the qualifying head-to-head battle against Albon this season and is well-suited to optimizing low-drag setups at Monza.
赛后复盘。
自由练习赛 3
最终预测。
George Russell topped FP2 and demonstrated blistering single-lap pace, positioning Mercedes as the favorite to lead the final practice session.
FP3结果。
得分板。
车手对决。
Gasly holds the upper hand in their qualifying head-to-head this season and brings stronger single-lap consistency over Colapinto.
Alonso consistently outperforms Stroll across practice and qualifying sessions, leveraging his superior technical feedback and experience at Monza.
Hulkenberg edged Bortoleto in FP2 and maintains a slight edge in overall one-lap execution for Audi.
Perez showed slightly better pace in FP2 relative to Bottas, making him a marginal favorite for the final practice session.
Leclerc has paced the Ferraris closely through FP1 and FP2 at home and historically extracts maximum single-lap speed at Monza.
Bearman showed dominant practice speed relative to Ocon in FP2, securing a comfortable intra-team margin.
Norris's blistering current form and high practice positioning suggest he will edge Piastri in the final low-fuel simulations.
Russell topped FP2 with strong Mercedes long- and short-run pace, giving him a slight edge over Antonelli in FP3.
Lindblad has demonstrated impressive speed across both practice sessions at Monza, consistently outpacing Lawson.
Verstappen remains the undisputed benchmark in the Red Bull stable, comfortably leading practice pace.
Despite close practice times, Sainz's stronger overall qualifying head-to-head record gives him the structural advantage for single-lap pace.
赛后复盘。
Italian Grand Prix 预测常见问题
- 谁被预测将赢得 2026 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)?
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
- 2026 Italian Grand Prix (Monza) 的领奖台预测是什么?
- P1: Charles Leclerc。P2: George Russell。P3: Lewis Hamilton。
- 谁被预测将夺得 2026 Italian Grand Prix (Monza) 的杆位?
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- AI 在进行 Italian Grand Prix 预测时权衡哪些因素?
- Extreme track temperatures and FIA heat hazard declaration impacting tire management. Ferrari's major aerodynamic upgrade package working effectively at Monza.