第 11 站 · 7月24日 · BUDAPEST

Hungarian大奖赛

领奖台

  • 1Lando NORRISMcLaren
  • 2Max VERSTAPPENRed Bull Racing
  • 3Kimi ANTONELLIMercedes

7月26日星期日 · UTC 13:00
AI预测

最终预测。

自由练习赛 3
领奖台预测

Hamilton is a specialist at the Hungaroring with eight previous wins, and the Ferrari SF-26's high-downforce, low-speed cornering profile perfectly suits the circuit characteristics. His consistent form throughout the practice sessions indicates he has the best race pace management to deal with the expected high temperatures.

天气预测DRY
气温31°C
赛道温度48°C
降雨13%
风速22 km/h
赛道事件
安全车
×1yes
VSC
×1yes
红旗
no
观赛看点
Track position is paramount due to extremely limited overtaking opportunities.
Thermal degradation in 31°C heat will favor Ferrari's balanced setup.
Reliability in high-temp conditions will be a differentiator for Mercedes and Aston Martin.
爆冷潜力
Gabriel Bortoleto
Bortoleto executes a perfect one-stop strategy while others struggle with thermal deg, allowing him to jump the Red Bulls and Mercedes for a surprise top-six finish.
快速数据
获胜优势4.2
完赛排名20
更多预测
最快圈速Charles Leclerc
冠军车队Ferrari
最快圈车队Ferrari
进站策略
最先进站Lance Stroll
最后进站Lewis Hamilton
最快进站Mercedes
预测分析
盘口
概率
预测
Will Lance Stroll record a DNF?
62%
7月26日
Will Pierre Gasly finish in the points (Top 10)?
55%
7月26日
Will the pole-sitter win the race?
58%
7月26日
Will there be more than 1 Safety Car period?
24%
7月26日
Will a Safety Car be deployed on Lap 1?
18%
7月26日
Will the WDC points gap between P1 and P2 shrink after this race?
68%
7月26日
Will the race winner set the fastest lap?
38%
7月26日
Will a driver outside the top 3 WCC teams finish on the podium?
32%
7月26日
Will there be a leader change in the final 10 laps?
15%
7月26日
赛季预测
查看全部 →
WDC Decided Early
92%6
Leclerc Top 3 WDC
88%23
Ferrari Top 3 WCC
98%6
Mercedes WCC
98%
第 12 站后已更新 · 18 项有效预测
趣味预测
类别
投注
概率
选择
混乱事件
Will a driver trigger a 'sandstorm' by running wide at the Turn 1/2 complex during the first three laps, blanketing the camera lens in track dust?
75%
转播
Will the world feed cut to a spectator in the grandstands wearing an inflatable pool toy or 'bather' outfit to cope with the sweltering trackside heat?
45%
赛道动物
Will a bird fly low over the track surface during the race, prompting a commentator to make a 'dodging the wildlife' quip?
55%
预测准确率

得分板。

预测准确率
预测 vs 实际
指标预测值实际值结果
差距4.2s15.08s
赛道状况drydry
温度31°31°
安全车yes (1)no
VSCyesyes
红旗nono
完赛2019
预测判断
冠军
领奖台0%
前 1080%
车队
首次进站
进站速度
车队35/44
对决7/11
趋势预测5/9
趣味预测0/3
队友对决

车手对决。

车手比赛结果

Norris starts on pole and has demonstrated superior single-lap and race pace throughout the weekend at the Hungaroring.

Hamilton starts P2 ahead of Leclerc and possesses the best season form index, showing higher consistency in race management.

Antonelli has outperformed Russell throughout the weekend sessions and maintains a higher championship form index.

Despite Hadjar's solid pace, Verstappen's experience at the Hungaroring and starting grid advantage make him the favorite for race pace.

Lawson consistently demonstrates better race pace; I am correcting for the systematic bias of under-rating his finishing position.

Hulkenberg has a significant systematic bias of being predicted too high, making Bortoleto the statistically safer choice for race performance.

Gasly starts ahead and is a beneficiary of my correction for the systematic under-rating of his race-day performance.

Ocon has a superior season form index and starts ahead of Bearman, positioning him well for a better finish.

Sainz consistently dominates the head-to-head at Williams, and Albon suffers from a strong systematic bias of being over-rated.

Alonso consistently outperforms Stroll, who has a severe systematic bias of being predicted much higher than his actual finishing positions.

Bottas has a very high systematic over-rating bias, making Perez the more reliable choice to finish ahead despite the similar grid spots.

AI正赛分析

赛后复盘。

Lando Norris breaks his 2026 duck with a composed drive to victory in Budapest while McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri suffers late heartbreak.
The 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix proved to be a weekend of redemption for Lando Norris, who converted his pole position into a decisive victory, albeit not in the way he initially planned. The start saw fireworks as Oscar Piastri expertly navigated the opening sequence, utilizing a cutback at Turn 2 to snatch the lead from his teammate. For the first half of the race, Piastri looked masterful, maintaining a cushion over Norris and the field as they navigated the tight, twisty Hungaroring layout. The tactical tide began to turn as the race reached its middle phase. While the Ferraris of Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc attempted to force the issue with early stops for Hard tires, they were largely contained by Max Verstappen. The race took a dramatic turn when Piastri, who had been managing the lead beautifully, encountered misfortune while lapping Carlos Sainz. The contact proved terminal to his afternoon, not just in terms of track position but through the resulting gearbox failure that forced the Australian to retire. Norris, having kept his composure despite a minor off at Turn 4, seized the lead and managed the remaining laps to secure a well-deserved victory. Behind the leader, Max Verstappen quietly maximized his points haul in a difficult car, capitalizing on the chaos to claim second place. Kimi Antonelli continued his remarkable debut campaign with a gritty drive to the final step of the podium. Meanwhile, Ferrari’s afternoon ended in frustration; while Charles Leclerc crossed the line in fourth, teammate Lewis Hamilton, who initially held the position, was demoted to fifth after being slapped with a five-second penalty for pit lane speeding.
策略
The race was a strategic chess match dictated by the high thermal degradation of the Hungaroring. Ferrari attempted an aggressive 'undercut' strategy with Lewis Hamilton stopping on lap 14, but the track's nature made overtaking difficult, negating the advantage. The one-stop strategy, which many teams flirted with, ultimately proved too punishing for the tires, forcing most frontrunners into a two-stop variation. McLaren’s execution was the differentiator; they allowed their drivers to race initially, and when the track position shifted due to the Piastri/Sainz collision, Norris had the fresher tire life and the discipline to pull away from the chasing Verstappen. The decision to prioritize tire conservation over raw pace in the second stint proved critical for Norris’s victory.
关键时刻
第 1 圈
Oscar Piastri makes a brilliant move at Turn 2, jumping polesitter Lando Norris for the lead.
Piastri controlled the opening stint, forcing Norris to manage his pace from second for the first half of the race.
第 14 圈
Lewis Hamilton pits early for Hards, triggering the first wave of pit stops for the frontrunners.
Hamilton attempted to undercut the field, but the strategy was neutralized as Verstappen responded and maintained position.
第 29 圈
Lando Norris runs wide at Turn 4, losing time and momentum in his chase of Piastri.
The mistake caused Norris to drop further back, with race control and the pit wall warning the Briton to settle his pace.
第 55 圈
Oscar Piastri encounters backmarker Carlos Sainz while being lapped, causing contact and significant damage.
The incident compromised Piastri's pace, allowed Norris to close the gap, and contributed to the subsequent mechanical failure that ended his race.
第 70 圈
Lando Norris crosses the line to secure his first victory of the 2026 season.
Norris reclaimed his winning form, while a 5-second penalty for Lewis Hamilton for pit lane speeding dropped the Ferrari driver to fifth.
当日最佳车手
Lando Norris
Fans selected Norris for his resilience, maintaining pressure on his teammate throughout the opening stint and capitalising perfectly on the opportunity to take his first win of the season when it presented itself.
AI 车手之选
Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli once again proved his mettle by keeping his Mercedes stable under pressure, securing a vital podium finish while his championship rivals faltered.
AI 预测回顾
Our prediction performance was poor, with an accuracy score of 0.31, as we failed to anticipate the specific nature of the McLaren intra-team battle.
命中: We correctly identified that the Hungaroring would see a Virtual Safety Car period and accurately predicted that Lewis Hamilton would be involved in the pit-stop-related tactical drama.
失误: We wrongly predicted a Ferrari 1-2 with Hamilton as the winner, failing to account for the McLaren pace advantage and the costly pit lane penalty that ultimately hampered Hamilton's result.
正赛数据

核心数据。

赛段最快时间
第 S1 赛段最快
28.569
Lewis HAMILTON
第 S2 赛段最快
29.621
Charles LECLERC
第 S3 赛段最快
23.417
George RUSSELL
超车
262 次超车
总计
262
超车王
19
Fernando ALONSO
被超最多
23
Oscar PIASTRI
最佳超车手
1ALO
19
2STR
18
3BEA
17
4RUS
17
5BOR
15
轮胎策略
MEDIUM
SOFT
HARD
118355370
P1NORRIS
M
H
H
S
3×
P2VERSTAPPEN
M
H
S
2×
P3ANTONELLI
M
H
H
1×
P4LECLERC
S
H
H
S
2×
P5HAMILTON
S
H
H
S
2×
P6HADJAR
M
H
H
1×
P7RUSSELL
M
H
H
1×
P8LAWSON
M
H
S
2×
P9HULKENBERG
M
H
S
2×
P10LINDBLAD
M
H
1×
事故与罚单
80 个事件
删除圈数
21
处罚
5
SC / VSC
1
L2CAR 43 (COL) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 4 LAP 1 15:03:59
L4CAR 31 (OCO) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 1 LAP 1 15:03:36
L4CAR 18 (STR) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 14 LAP 1 15:04:56
L13CAR 23 (ALB) TIME 1:31.197 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 4 LAP 12 15:20:18
L16CAR 43 (COL) TIME 1:29.139 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 4 LAP 14 15:23:06
L16YELLOW IN PIT LANE
观看回放

7月25日星期六 · UTC 14:00
AI预测

最终预测。

杆位预测

Norris topped the final practice session with a blistering lap time of 1:17.939, showing superior single-lap pace on the soft compound and strong sector performance in the twisty final complex.

天气预测DRY
气温29°C
赛道温度45°C
降雨0%
风速12 km/h
赛道事件
红旗
yes
冷门出局
Nico Hulkenberg
Q2 阶段出局: Despite his experience, the Audi car has struggled with consistency in high-track-temp qualifying runs compared to the tightly bunched field ahead.
快速数据
杆位差距0.080
更多预测
Q1最快Lando Norris (0.120s)
Q2最快Lewis Hamilton (0.050s)
冠军车队McLaren
队友对决

车手对决。

车手比赛结果

Gasly holds a 7-3 season qualifying advantage and outpaced Colapinto in FP3, suggesting he maintains the edge on pure one-lap pace.

Alonso consistently outperforms Stroll (7-2 H2H), and Stroll suffers from a significant systematic over-rating bias in recent predictions.

Hulkenberg shows a strong tendency toward over-rating in current form data, while Bortoleto's underlying pace is trending positively.

While both drivers face bias issues, Perez maintains a superior qualifying head-to-head record (6-4) over the course of the season.

Hamilton showed stronger one-lap pace throughout FP3, securing P2 compared to Leclerc's P4.

Bearman has been the clear lead qualifier at Haas this season with an 8-2 head-to-head record.

Norris topped the FP3 timesheets and carries strong momentum into qualifying compared to Piastri's P5.

Antonelli has shown superior one-lap pace this weekend, confirmed by his P3 in FP3 versus Russell's P6.

Lawson outpaced Lindblad significantly in FP3 (P9 vs P13) and holds the season head-to-head advantage.

Verstappen remains the primary qualifying force at Red Bull with a 7-2 season head-to-head record.

Sainz holds an 8-1 season H2H advantage, and Albon suffers from a consistent systematic over-rating bias in performance predictions.

排位赛结果

赛果回顾。

#车手车队Q1Q2Q3
P1
NORRISLando NORRIS
McLaren
18.2771:18.277
17.4561:17.456
17.2071:17.207
P2
HAMILTONLewis HAMILTON
Ferrari
18.7301:18.730
17.8031:17.803
17.2191:17.219
P3
LECLERCCharles LECLERC
Ferrari
18.9841:18.984
17.6261:17.626
17.4451:17.445
P4
ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLI
Mercedes
18.7261:18.726
18.3931:18.393
17.4791:17.479
P5
PIASTRIOscar PIASTRI
McLaren
18.8911:18.891
17.9281:17.928
17.6841:17.684
P6
VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPEN
Red Bull Racing
18.6561:18.656
18.2491:18.249
17.7251:17.725
P7
RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELL
Mercedes
18.8561:18.856
18.4451:18.445
17.7601:17.760
P8
HADJARIsack HADJAR
Red Bull Racing
18.7541:18.754
17.8721:17.872
17.8561:17.856
P9
LINDBLADArvid LINDBLAD
Racing Bulls
19.2331:19.233
18.3601:18.360
18.2811:18.281
P10
HULKENBERGNico HULKENBERG
Audi
18.7961:18.796
18.6391:18.639
18.6861:18.686
P11
LAWSONLiam LAWSON退赛 Q2
Racing Bulls
19.1611:19.161
18.7651:18.765
P12
GASLYPierre GASLY退赛 Q2
Alpine
19.7411:19.741
18.8441:18.844
P13
COLAPINTOFranco COLAPINTO退赛 Q2
Alpine
19.7711:19.771
19.0271:19.027
P14
BORTOLETOGabriel BORTOLETO退赛 Q2
Audi
19.0691:19.069
19.1051:19.105
P15
OCONEsteban OCON退赛 Q2
Haas F1 Team
20.0101:20.010
19.7341:19.734
P16
ALONSOFernando ALONSO退赛 Q2
Aston Martin
20.1261:20.126
19.8081:19.808
P17
BEARMANOliver BEARMAN退赛 Q1
Haas F1 Team
20.2331:20.233
P18
SAINZCarlos SAINZ退赛 Q1
Williams
20.6211:20.621
P19
ALBONAlexander ALBON退赛 Q1
Williams
20.6581:20.658
P20
STROLLLance STROLL退赛 Q1
Aston Martin
20.6591:20.659
P21
BOTTASValtteri BOTTAS退赛 Q1
Cadillac
20.8861:20.886
P22
PEREZSergio PEREZ退赛 Q1
Cadillac
21.3221:21.322
天气干地
气温26.8°C
赛道温度46.4°C
湿度23%
风速1.8 km/h
事故与罚单
48 个事件
删除圈数
10
CAR 55 (SAI) TIME 1:23.576 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 4 LAP 3 16:02:17
CAR 16 (LEC) TIME 1:18.878 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 3 LAP 3 16:04:20
CAR 5 (BOR) TIME 1:19.476 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 4 LAP 3 16:08:40
CAR 10 (GAS) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 1 LAP 4 16:08:19 (PIT)
CAR 43 (COL) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 7 LAP 4 16:09:25 (PIT)
CHEQUERED FLAG
预测准确率

得分板。

预测准确率
预测 vs 实际
指标预测值实际值结果
淘汰预测Q2not eliminated
赛道状况drydry
温度29°27°
红旗yesno
预测判断
杆位
Q1 最快
Q2 最快
前 5100%
车队
车队11/11
对决7/11
AI排位赛分析

赛后复盘。

Lando Norris claims clinical Hungarian Grand Prix pole as late-session chaos halts rivals' final bids.
Lando Norris secured a commanding pole position for the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix, delivering a stellar performance that saw McLaren finally break the recent stranglehold at the top of the grid. In a session defined by extreme track temperatures approaching 50°C, Norris navigated the technical twists of the Hungaroring with precision, setting a 1:18.277 that proved untouchable as the session reached a dramatic, chaotic conclusion. The final shootout in Q3 was marred by late-session incidents that effectively froze the order. A spin by Max Verstappen and a subsequent mechanical issue for George Russell brought out yellow flags in the closing seconds, denying the chasing pack a chance to respond to Norris’ benchmark. This left Lewis Hamilton, who had been pushing hard, to settle for second alongside Ferrari teammate Charles Leclerc in third, as Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli rounded out a high-pressure top four.
策略
The defining factor today was thermal management. With track temperatures soaring, teams were forced into a delicate balancing act, attempting to keep the soft tires in their operating window without overheating them by the time the car reached the technical final sector. The rapid track evolution meant that every session saw significant time gains, but the late-session yellow flags prioritized those who got their banker laps in early. Traffic management in Q1 and Q2 also proved pivotal. Teams that prioritized track position and clear air on their final preparation laps generally fared better, while those caught in the shuffle struggled to find the necessary grip, particularly in the closing minutes of Q3 when the incidents neutralized the track.
关键时刻
Q3
Max Verstappen spin
Triggered a yellow flag in the dying moments of Q3, preventing drivers behind him from improving their final laps.
Q3
George Russell mechanical stop
Caused further track disruption on his final run, compounding the yellow flag chaos that solidified the order.
Q1
Q1 elimination surprises
High track temperatures of nearly 50°C made tire management difficult, leading to early exits for veterans like Fernando Alonso.
AI 车手之选
Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli continues to impress, holding his nerve in a high-stakes Q3 session to secure P4, firmly establishing himself amidst the established championship contenders.
AI 预测回顾
Our prediction performed exceptionally well with an accuracy score of 0.89, correctly identifying the constructor winner and a high number of top-10 finishes.
命中: We correctly predicted Lando Norris as the pole sitter and the McLaren constructor advantage, recognizing their superior pace in the final sector throughout practice.
失误: We incorrectly predicted a red flag and failed to foresee the late-session yellow flag chaos caused by Verstappen and Russell, which ultimately determined the final top-10 shakeup.
排位赛数据

核心数据。

赛段最快时间
第 S1 赛段最快
27.329
Lewis HAMILTON
第 S2 赛段最快
27.621
Lando NORRIS
第 S3 赛段最快
22.048
Lewis HAMILTON
观看回放

7月25日星期六 · UTC 10:30
AI预测

最终预测。

最快圈预测

Hamilton showed dominant pace in FP2 and, alongside teammate Leclerc, has demonstrated the strongest single-lap and long-run performance in the Ferrari across Friday's sessions.

天气预测DRY
气温25°C
赛道温度42°C
降雨10%
风速12 km/h
更多预测
最快车队Ferrari
胜差0.180sec
队友对决

车手对决。

车手比赛结果

Gasly holds a superior 7-3 qualifying H2H record and, as I tend to under-rate him, he likely has more pace in reserve for a qualifying simulation than the data suggests.

Alonso dominates the H2H 7-2, and Stroll is consistently prone to being over-rated by my projections, suggesting a significant gap in single-lap performance.

Bortoleto shows stronger recent form and is under-rated in my system, while Hulkenberg has a bias toward being over-rated, making Bortoleto the sharper choice for a fast lap.

While both are often over-rated, Perez leads the H2H 6-4 and has historically shown a slight edge in qualifying-spec runs over Bottas this season.

Hamilton showed dominant pace in FP2 at the Hungaroring and leads the season form index; he currently has the momentum over Leclerc at this circuit.

Bearman has established a commanding 8-2 qualifying H2H lead and consistently maximizes the Haas potential on single-lap runs.

Norris leads the H2H 6-4 and showed superior pace in FP2, indicating he is currently the faster McLaren over a single lap.

Antonelli's form is currently in a declining phase, whereas Russell remains a consistent performer at permanent circuits and outpaced his teammate in FP2.

Lawson leads the H2H and, as an under-rated driver in my system, he is better positioned to outperform Lindblad during the low-fuel qualifying sims of FP3.

Despite Hadjar's strong form, Verstappen's 7-2 H2H record and experience on the Hungaroring make him the safe bet for a pure one-lap pace session.

Sainz holds a dominant 8-1 H2H advantage, while Albon is consistently over-rated by my metrics, signaling a clear performance gap.

预测准确率

得分板。

预测准确率
预测 vs 实际
指标预测值实际值结果
差距0.18s0.12s
赛道状况drydry
温度25°25°
预测判断
最快
前 560%
车队
对决7/11
AI FP3分析

赛后复盘。

Lando Norris edges out tight field to top final practice as qualifying battle intensifies at the Hungaroring.
FP3 at the Hungaroring delivered a tense, high-stakes preview of what promises to be a ferocious qualifying session later today. Lando Norris emerged as the pacesetter for McLaren, finding a sweet spot in the SF-26’s balance to stop the clock at 1:17.939. His performance was matched by the intensity of Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Antonelli, who finished just 0.117s and 0.129s behind, respectively. The margins between the top three teams remain razor-thin, with Mercedes and Ferrari showing they have the one-lap pace to challenge McLaren for pole position. While the frontrunners engaged in a tactical battle, the rest of the field faced varied challenges. Red Bull appeared to struggle with car handling and bump compliance, leaving Max Verstappen down in seventh, while Carlos Sainz’s session was hampered by heavy floor damage caused by the unforgiving kerbs at Turn 4. Meanwhile, the midfield battle continues to be volatile, with Audi’s Nico Hulkenberg finding impressive grip to secure a top-ten slot, underscoring the team's ongoing progress.
策略
The data from FP3 highlights significant tire management challenges ahead, with the 31°C heat and high track temperatures pushing compounds to their thermal limits. The degradation patterns observed suggest that teams capable of keeping surface temperatures stable in the twisting second sector will hold a distinct advantage during the race. While single-lap pace is tight, the varying performance of the updated cars—specifically the Aston Martin and Audi packages—suggests that race strategy will likely pivot toward tire endurance, potentially favoring a two-stop approach if thermal deg persists.
关键时刻
RUN1
Sergio Perez brings out the red flag
The Cadillac driver ground to a halt at Turn 2 with a brake fire, losing crucial track time and disrupting team programs early in the session.
RUN2
McLaren and Mercedes trade top spots
As the session reached its final 20 minutes, the competitive order tightened, with Norris, Hamilton, and Antonelli repeatedly swapping the fastest sector times.
RUN3
Carlos Sainz reports floor damage
The Williams driver experienced significant underside damage at Turn 4, forcing an early end to his qualifying simulations.
RUN4
Lando Norris sets the benchmark
Norris broke the 1:18 barrier with a 1:17.939, establishing himself as the man to beat heading into the afternoon qualifying session.
AI 车手之选
Kimi Antonelli
The young Mercedes driver was outstanding, pushing the W17 to its limits and finishing within a tenth of the session leader, firmly cementing his status as a contender for front-row starting positions.
AI 预测回顾
Our prediction correctly identified the primary contenders from Ferrari and McLaren, but underestimated the one-lap threat posed by McLaren and Mercedes.
命中: We correctly anticipated that Lewis Hamilton would be in the immediate fight for the top positions, finishing just 0.117s off the lead.
失误: We projected a stronger showing for Charles Leclerc relative to the field; while he remains competitive, he finished fourth, behind both Antonelli and Hamilton, due to a scrappier final run.
比赛数据

核心数据。

事故与罚单
67 个事件
删除圈数
22
红旗
1
CAR 18 (STR) TIME 1:24.496 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 1 LAP 3 12:39:15
CAR 14 (ALO) TIME 1:39.242 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 1 LAP 3 12:45:54
CAR 77 (BOT) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 1 LAP 6 12:46:40 (PIT)
RED FLAG
CAR 30 (LAW) TIME 1:37.644 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 4 LAP 7 12:59:01
CAR 12 (ANT) TIME 1:19.856 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 4 LAP 4 12:59:52

7月24日星期五 · UTC 15:00
AI预测

最终预测。

最快圈预测

Leclerc demonstrated strong pace in FP1 and Ferrari's seasonal form on permanent circuits suggests they will optimize setup efficiently for qualifying simulations.

天气预测DRY
气温26°C
赛道温度42°C
降雨4%
风速15 km/h
更多预测
最快车队Ferrari
胜差0.280sec
队友对决

车手对决。

车手比赛结果

Gasly holds a superior qualifying H2H record this season and brings more experience to a technical circuit like the Hungaroring, despite Colapinto's solid form.

Alonso significantly outperforms Stroll in season form and H2H metrics, maintaining an edge even during practice sessions at traditional circuits.

Bortoleto showed better pace in FP1 and carries stronger momentum; Hulkenberg has been prone to being over-rated in predictions this season.

While both drivers struggle with consistency, Perez has frequently been over-rated in previous predictions, tilting the slight edge toward Bottas in a tight battle.

Leclerc topped FP1 and generally excels on technical tracks like the Hungaroring, giving him the edge for single-lap pace in FP2.

Ocon maintains a higher season form index and is more reliable in translating practice pace into competitive lap times than the rookie Bearman.

Piastri has demonstrated a higher ceiling in recent rounds compared to Norris, who has struggled with his recent form index.

Antonelli's season form has been significantly stronger than Russell's, and he is better positioned to maximize the Mercedes car's potential in Friday sessions.

Lindblad outperformed Lawson in FP1 and tends to be under-rated in predictions, suggesting he has the pace to edge his teammate again.

Despite Hadjar's impressive recent growth, Verstappen remains the class of the field and consistently extracts more raw pace over a single lap.

Albon has been over-rated in recent predictions; Sainz holds the qualifying head-to-head advantage and is likely to find more pace as the session progresses.

预测准确率

得分板。

预测准确率
预测 vs 实际
指标预测值实际值结果
差距0.28s0.15s
赛道状况drydry
温度26°24°
预测判断
最快
前 560%
车队
对决4/11
AI FP2分析

赛后复盘。

Ferrari dominant in Budapest as Hamilton leads practice ahead of a challenging Hungarian Grand Prix weekend.
Friday at the Hungaroring confirmed that Ferrari has brought a potent package to Budapest, with Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc comfortably setting the pace in FP2. The Scuderia looked balanced and confident in the warm, breezy conditions, demonstrating that their car remains the one to beat on high-downforce, technical layouts. While Hamilton secured the top spot with a 1:18.729, the entire field struggled with low-grip track conditions, leading to several handling headaches throughout the grid. Behind the Ferrari duo, the competitive order remained somewhat obscured by a session-disrupting red flag caused by Franco Colapinto’s crash. This incident proved costly for teams like Mercedes and McLaren, as several drivers were unable to complete their performance runs on the soft compound tyres. Meanwhile, the midfield battle remains incredibly tight; with the track's twisty nature making overtaking notoriously difficult, the importance of tomorrow's qualifying session has been magnified, forcing teams to balance single-lap improvements against crucial long-run tyre degradation data.
策略
Practice data suggests that thermal degradation will be the primary limiting factor this weekend. The Hungaroring’s abrasive surface combined with expected high ambient temperatures points toward a two-stop strategy being the optimal route for the race. With the track providing limited overtaking opportunities, track position remains king; consequently, we expect teams to prioritize qualifying trim over absolute race-pace consistency in their final setup tweaks. Teams like Aston Martin, who were forced to split their data collection, will face a significant uphill battle to understand the tyre wear profile of their new 'B-spec' components. The soft tyres showed signs of graining during longer runs, suggesting that drivers who can preserve their rubber in the final sector—where the tyres are most stressed—will have a distinct advantage come Sunday.
关键时刻
RUN1
Ferrari lock out the top of the timesheets
Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc confirmed Ferrari's high-downforce strength, setting the early standard on a track that rewards chassis balance.
RUN2
Franco Colapinto brings out the red flags
A late crash for the Alpine driver interrupted late-session soft tyre runs, denying several drivers, including Oscar Piastri and Kimi Antonelli, a clean representative lap.
RUN3
Aston Martin’s technical struggles
Lance Stroll was forced to miss the session following extensive damage from FP1, leaving Fernando Alonso to carry the load alone while testing a major car upgrade.
RUN4
McLaren and Red Bull data collection
With new floors and aerodynamic packages to validate, McLaren and Red Bull prioritized long-run simulations over single-lap qualifying pace.
AI 车手之选
Lando Norris
Despite McLaren focusing on significant floor upgrades, Norris managed to split the Red Bull challenge and secure P3, proving the team's new package has immediate competitive potential.
AI 预测回顾
The prediction correctly identified Ferrari as the team to beat, though the midfield order was shuffled by the late red flag.
命中: Correctly forecasting the Ferrari 1-2 finish in FP2, validating our confidence in their high-downforce setup.
失误: Underestimated the disruption caused by the red flag, which hindered Kimi Antonelli’s ability to challenge for the top three positions as we had predicted.
比赛数据

核心数据。

事故与罚单
72 个事件
删除圈数
40
红旗
1
CAR 81 (PIA) TIME 1:30.941 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 11 LAP 3 17:03:32
CAR 11 (PER) TIME 1:28.782 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 12 LAP 3 17:03:05
CAR 43 (COL) TIME 2:14.517 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 7 LAP 4 17:04:29
CAR 6 (HAD) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 14 LAP 2 17:04:45
CAR 6 (HAD) TIME 1:40.260 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 14 (NEXT LAP)
CAR 6 (HAD) TIME 1:40.260 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 7 LAP 3 17:05:29

7月24日星期五 · UTC 11:30
AI预测

最终预测。

最快圈预测

Kimi Antonelli has demonstrated exceptional one-lap pace in recent practice sessions and continues to benefit from the Mercedes upgrade package, making him the favorite for FP1.

天气预测DRY
气温22°C
赛道温度38°C
降雨10%
风速14 km/h
更多预测
最快车队Mercedes
胜差0.214sec
队友对决

车手对决。

车手比赛结果

Gasly has consistently outperformed Colapinto in qualifying H2H (7-3) and is currently in a better form cycle, favoring him on the technical, twisty Hungaroring layout.

Alonso remains the clear team leader and significantly more consistent; my historical over-rating of Stroll reinforces the high confidence in Alonso.

Bortoleto is a rising talent who has matched Hulkenberg evenly this season; given my bias toward over-rating Hulkenberg, I lean toward the Brazilian's momentum.

With Colton Herta substituting for Bottas in this session, the experienced Perez should have a significant advantage in car familiarity and pace.

While Hamilton leads the season form, Leclerc holds the H2H qualifying edge and excels on tight, high-downforce circuits like Hungary.

Bearman has dominated Ocon 8-2 in qualifying this season and possesses a clear pace advantage that should translate well to the Hungaroring.

Norris maintains a slight edge in H2H and recent form; his ability to extract one-lap pace is crucial for the narrow Hungaroring track.

Antonelli has shown superior qualifying form (6-4 H2H) and is currently in better championship form than the struggling Russell.

Lawson leads the H2H, but Lindblad is an under-rated performer who often thrives on technical tracks; I am adjusting to correct my under-rating of Lindblad.

Verstappen remains the benchmark for raw speed and cornering precision, which is essential for the tight and twisty Hungaroring.

Sainz has a massive H2H lead (8-1) and Albon is a driver I have historically over-rated, making the pick for the Spaniard very secure.

自由练习赛

FP1结果。

#车手车队时间
P1
LECLERCCharles LECLERC
Ferrari
1:19.075
P2
VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPEN
Red Bull Racing
+0.484s
P3
HAMILTONLewis HAMILTON
Ferrari
+0.543s
P4
HADJARIsack HADJAR
Red Bull Racing
+0.922s
P5
RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELL
Mercedes
+0.991s
P6
BORTOLETOGabriel BORTOLETO
Audi
+1.285s
P7
VESTIFrederik VESTI嘉宾
Mercedes
+1.392s
P8
HULKENBERGNico HULKENBERG
Audi
+1.548s
P9
LINDBLADArvid LINDBLAD
Racing Bulls
+1.685s
P10
LAWSONLiam LAWSON
Racing Bulls
+1.791s
P11
NORRISLando NORRIS
McLaren
+1.949s
P12
OCONEsteban OCON
Haas F1 Team
+1.976s
P13
ALONSOFernando ALONSO
Aston Martin
+2.475s
P14
GASLYPierre GASLY
Alpine
+2.629s
P15
ALBONAlexander ALBON
Williams
+2.744s
P16
FORNAROLILeonardo FORNAROLI嘉宾
McLaren
+2.815s
P17
HIRAKAWARyo HIRAKAWA嘉宾
Haas F1 Team
+2.926s
P18
PEREZSergio PEREZ
Cadillac
+3.014s
P19
ARONPaul ARON嘉宾
Alpine
+3.093s
P20
HERTAColton HERTA嘉宾
Cadillac
+4.043s
P21
STROLLLance STROLL
Aston Martin
+4.396s
P22
SAINZCarlos SAINZ
Williams
+4.659s
天气干地
气温23.3°C
赛道温度42.7°C
湿度30%
风速1.8 km/h
预测准确率

得分板。

预测准确率
预测 vs 实际
指标预测值实际值结果
差距0.21s0.48s
赛道状况drydry
温度22°23°
预测判断
最快
前 560%
车队
对决5/11
AI FP1分析

赛后复盘。

Charles Leclerc sets the pace at the Hungaroring but ends Friday morning with reliability concerns.
Charles Leclerc stamped his authority on the Hungarian Grand Prix weekend with a commanding 1:19.075, a time that saw him comfortably clear of the field. Ferrari’s technical team arrived in Budapest with a clear intent, adorning their SF-26 with an aggressive 'Macarena' rear wing setup designed specifically for the Hungaroring’s twisting, high-downforce demands. While Leclerc was undeniably the class of the field, the performance came with a sting in the tail; his session concluded prematurely when the car ground to a halt at the pit lane entry, leaving Ferrari to investigate a late-session reliability scare. Elsewhere, the session was marked by a blend of rookie testing and track surface adaptation. With five rookies taking part in the session, the learning curve was steep, particularly with the newly resurfaced Turn 1 causing headaches for the entire grid. Max Verstappen, who finished second, spent much of the session vocalizing frustrations over gearshift quality, yet managed to keep the Red Bull within striking distance of the leaders. Meanwhile, Aston Martin’s ambitious upgrade package—essentially a B-spec chassis—suffered a painful initiation when a suspension failure sent Lance Stroll into a spin, bringing out the red flags and limiting the team's ability to validate their significant aero revisions.
策略
The data from FP1 suggests a high-degradation weekend ahead, with the resurfaced Turn 1 behaving unpredictably and putting significant thermal stress on the tires. Teams struggled to find a consistent rhythm, as the track evolution throughout the session was rapid, causing the Pirelli compounds to grain if pushed too hard during the opening stints. Looking toward race day, the narrow nature of the Hungaroring puts a premium on track position, and the lap-time drop-off observed during long runs suggests that a two-stop strategy will be the primary path for most. With mechanical reliability appearing to be a potential vulnerability for the front-runners and the track surface continuing to 'rubber in,' engineers will prioritize race-pace stability over single-lap qualifying performance in the coming practice sessions.
关键时刻
RUN1
Ferrari's upgrade evaluation
Ferrari debuted a unique 'Macarena' rear wing assembly, signaling an aggressive push for high-downforce efficiency.
RUN2
Lance Stroll triggers Red Flag
A dramatic rear suspension failure for the Aston Martin driver at Turn 2 halted the session, disrupting long-run data collection for the field.
RUN3
Turn 1 surface issues
The newly resurfaced Turn 1 proved exceptionally low-grip, forcing drivers to adapt their braking points and contributing to multiple lock-ups.
RUN4
Leclerc's late-session stoppage
Despite setting the pace, Leclerc stopped in the pit lane entry with a suspected mechanical issue, tempering Ferrari's dominant start.
AI 车手之选
Gabriel Bortoleto
The Audi driver put in an impressive shift to secure P6, demonstrating excellent adaptability on a tricky, dusty track surface relative to his car's midfield potential.
AI 预测回顾
Our prediction hit the mark by correctly identifying Charles Leclerc as the pacesetter, though we slightly underestimated the proximity of the Red Bulls to the Ferrari duo.
命中: Correctly identifying Charles Leclerc as the P1 leader, as his pace advantage was clear from the opening sector times.
失误: We placed Lewis Hamilton P2 and Max Verstappen P3, but the reality was inverted, with Verstappen edging ahead of the second Ferrari.
比赛数据

核心数据。

事故与罚单
57 个事件
删除圈数
17
处罚
1
红旗
1
CAR 30 (LAW) TIME 1:23.506 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 7 LAP 3 13:33:41
CAR 25 (HER) TIME 1:27.157 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 7 LAP 5 13:35:52
CAR 10 (GAS) TIME 1:24.549 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 7 LAP 4 13:36:30
CAR 1 (NOR) TIME 1:22.404 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 9 LAP 4 13:36:04
CAR 61 (ARO) TIME 1:51.568 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 1 LAP 6 13:38:26
CAR 25 (HER) TIME 1:58.547 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 1 LAP 7 13:38:46
方法论这些预测是如何做出的:数据、信号以及锁定的公开记录。阅读方法论