HungarianグランプリBudapest
2026 Hungarian Grand Prixの結果:Hungaroringでのレース順位、表彰台、予選、ファステストラップ、ピットストップ、セクタータイム、さらにAI予測のスコアを掲載。2026年7月26日。
AIの予測結果
AIは勝者を外しました。
- P1NORRISLando NORRISMcLarenHamiltonLewis Hamilton外れ
- P2VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull RacingLeclercCharles Leclerc外れ
- P3ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedesNorrisLando Norris外れ
スコアカード
あなたの番
次戦: United States GP
予想締切まで
結果とAI予測の比較
キーモーメント
Lando Norris breaks his 2026 duck with a composed drive to victory in Budapest while McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri suffers late heartbreak.
- 1周目Oscar Piastri makes a brilliant move at Turn 2, jumping polesitter Lando Norris for the lead.Piastri controlled the opening stint, forcing Norris to manage his pace from second for the first half of the race.
- 14周目Lewis Hamilton pits early for Hards, triggering the first wave of pit stops for the frontrunners.Hamilton attempted to undercut the field, but the strategy was neutralized as Verstappen responded and maintained position.
- 29周目Lando Norris runs wide at Turn 4, losing time and momentum in his chase of Piastri.The mistake caused Norris to drop further back, with race control and the pit wall warning the Briton to settle his pace.
- 55周目Oscar Piastri encounters backmarker Carlos Sainz while being lapped, causing contact and significant damage.The incident compromised Piastri's pace, allowed Norris to close the gap, and contributed to the subsequent mechanical failure that ended his race.
- 70周目Lando Norris crosses the line to secure his first victory of the 2026 season.Norris reclaimed his winning form, while a 5-second penalty for Lewis Hamilton for pit lane speeding dropped the Ferrari driver to fifth.
直接対決
Norris starts on pole and has demonstrated superior single-lap and race pace throughout the weekend at the Hungaroring.
Hamilton starts P2 ahead of Leclerc and possesses the best season form index, showing higher consistency in race management.
Antonelli has outperformed Russell throughout the weekend sessions and maintains a higher championship form index.
Despite Hadjar's solid pace, Verstappen's experience at the Hungaroring and starting grid advantage make him the favorite for race pace.
Lawson consistently demonstrates better race pace; I am correcting for the systematic bias of under-rating his finishing position.
Hulkenberg has a significant systematic bias of being predicted too high, making Bortoleto the statistically safer choice for race performance.
Gasly starts ahead and is a beneficiary of my correction for the systematic under-rating of his race-day performance.
Ocon has a superior season form index and starts ahead of Bearman, positioning him well for a better finish.
Sainz consistently dominates the head-to-head at Williams, and Albon suffers from a strong systematic bias of being over-rated.
Alonso consistently outperforms Stroll, who has a severe systematic bias of being predicted much higher than his actual finishing positions.
Bottas has a very high systematic over-rating bias, making Perez the more reliable choice to finish ahead despite the similar grid spots.
ウィークエンド
- セッションリプレイリプレイを見るラップごとの順位、ギャップ、フラッグ情報AIレース予想
予想の結論
ポールポジション予想P1NorrisLando NorrisMcLaren71%P2HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari68%P3AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes64%Norris topped the final practice session with a blistering lap time of 1:17.939, showing superior single-lap pace on the soft compound and strong sector performance in the twisty final complex.
天気予報DRY気温29°C路面温度45°C雨0%風12 km/hレースインシデント赤旗yes#ドライバーチーム自信度自信度P4LeclercCharles LeclercFerrari62%P5PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren59%P6RussellGeorge RussellMercedes56%P7VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing54%P8HadjarIsack HadjarRed Bull Racing51%P9LindbladArvid LindbladRacing Bulls48%P10BortoletoGabriel BortoletoAudi45%番狂わせの敗退Nico HulkenbergQ2で敗退: Despite his experience, the Audi car has struggled with consistency in high-track-temp qualifying runs compared to the tightly bunched field ahead.クイックスタッツポールタイム差0.080その他の予想Q1最速Lando Norris (0.120s)Q2最速Lewis Hamilton (0.050s)優勝コンストラクターMcLaren予選結果結果
#ドライバーチームQ1Q2Q3P1NORRISLando NORRISMcLaren18.2771:18.27717.4561:17.45617.2071:17.207P2HAMILTONLewis HAMILTONFerrari18.7301:18.73017.8031:17.80317.2191:17.219P3LECLERCCharles LECLERCFerrari18.9841:18.98417.6261:17.62617.4451:17.445P4ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedes18.7261:18.72618.3931:18.39317.4791:17.479P5PIASTRIOscar PIASTRIMcLaren18.8911:18.89117.9281:17.92817.6841:17.684P6VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull18.6561:18.65618.2491:18.24917.7251:17.725P7RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELLMercedes18.8561:18.85618.4451:18.44517.7601:17.760P8HADJARIsack HADJARRed Bull18.7541:18.75417.8721:17.87217.8561:17.856P9LINDBLADArvid LINDBLADRB F1 Team19.2331:19.23318.3601:18.36018.2811:18.281P10HULKENBERGNico HULKENBERGAudi18.7961:18.79618.6391:18.63918.6861:18.686P11LAWSONLiam LAWSONOUT Q2RB F1 Team19.1611:19.16118.7651:18.765–P12GASLYPierre GASLYOUT Q2Alpine F1 Team19.7411:19.74118.8441:18.844–P13COLAPINTOFranco COLAPINTOOUT Q2Alpine F1 Team19.7711:19.77119.0271:19.027–P14BORTOLETOGabriel BORTOLETOOUT Q2Audi19.0691:19.06919.1051:19.105–P15OCONEsteban OCONOUT Q2Haas F1 Team20.0101:20.01019.7341:19.734–P16ALONSOFernando ALONSOOUT Q2Aston Martin20.1261:20.12619.8081:19.808–P17BEARMANOliver BEARMANOUT Q1Haas F1 Team20.2331:20.233––P18SAINZCarlos SAINZOUT Q1Williams20.6211:20.621––P19ALBONAlexander ALBONOUT Q1Williams20.6581:20.658––P20STROLLLance STROLLOUT Q1Aston Martin20.6591:20.659––P21BOTTASValtteri BOTTASOUT Q1Cadillac F1 Team20.8861:20.886––P22PEREZSergio PEREZOUT Q1Cadillac F1 Team21.3221:21.322––天候ドライ気温26.8°C路面温度46.4°C湿度23%風1.8 km/h予想精度スコアカード
予想精度予想 vs 実績項目予想実績結果脱落予想Q2not eliminatedマージン0.08s0.45s天候drydry気温29°27°レッドフラッグyesno予想ポールポジションQ1最速Q2最速TOP 5100%コンストラクターチーム予想11/11 件の的中直接対決7/11チームメイト対決直接対決
ドライバーリザルトGasly holds a 7-3 season qualifying advantage and outpaced Colapinto in FP3, suggesting he maintains the edge on pure one-lap pace.
Alonso consistently outperforms Stroll (7-2 H2H), and Stroll suffers from a significant systematic over-rating bias in recent predictions.
Hulkenberg shows a strong tendency toward over-rating in current form data, while Bortoleto's underlying pace is trending positively.
While both drivers face bias issues, Perez maintains a superior qualifying head-to-head record (6-4) over the course of the season.
Hamilton showed stronger one-lap pace throughout FP3, securing P2 compared to Leclerc's P4.
Bearman has been the clear lead qualifier at Haas this season with an 8-2 head-to-head record.
Norris topped the FP3 timesheets and carries strong momentum into qualifying compared to Piastri's P5.
Antonelli has shown superior one-lap pace this weekend, confirmed by his P3 in FP3 versus Russell's P6.
Lawson outpaced Lindblad significantly in FP3 (P9 vs P13) and holds the season head-to-head advantage.
Verstappen remains the primary qualifying force at Red Bull with a 7-2 season head-to-head record.
Sainz holds an 8-1 season H2H advantage, and Albon suffers from a consistent systematic over-rating bias in performance predictions.
AI予選分析レース分析
Lando Norris claims clinical Hungarian Grand Prix pole as late-session chaos halts rivals' final bids.Lando Norris secured a commanding pole position for the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix, delivering a stellar performance that saw McLaren finally break the recent stranglehold at the top of the grid. In a session defined by extreme track temperatures approaching 50°C, Norris navigated the technical twists of the Hungaroring with precision, setting a 1:18.277 that proved untouchable as the session reached a dramatic, chaotic conclusion. The final shootout in Q3 was marred by late-session incidents that effectively froze the order. A spin by Max Verstappen and a subsequent mechanical issue for George Russell brought out yellow flags in the closing seconds, denying the chasing pack a chance to respond to Norris’ benchmark. This left Lewis Hamilton, who had been pushing hard, to settle for second alongside Ferrari teammate Charles Leclerc in third, as Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli rounded out a high-pressure top four.戦略The defining factor today was thermal management. With track temperatures soaring, teams were forced into a delicate balancing act, attempting to keep the soft tires in their operating window without overheating them by the time the car reached the technical final sector. The rapid track evolution meant that every session saw significant time gains, but the late-session yellow flags prioritized those who got their banker laps in early. Traffic management in Q1 and Q2 also proved pivotal. Teams that prioritized track position and clear air on their final preparation laps generally fared better, while those caught in the shuffle struggled to find the necessary grip, particularly in the closing minutes of Q3 when the incidents neutralized the track.ハイライトQ3Max Verstappen spinTriggered a yellow flag in the dying moments of Q3, preventing drivers behind him from improving their final laps.Q3George Russell mechanical stopCaused further track disruption on his final run, compounding the yellow flag chaos that solidified the order.Q1Q1 elimination surprisesHigh track temperatures of nearly 50°C made tire management difficult, leading to early exits for veterans like Fernando Alonso.AIの注目ドライバーKimi AntonelliAntonelli continues to impress, holding his nerve in a high-stakes Q3 session to secure P4, firmly establishing himself amidst the established championship contenders.AI予想レビューOur prediction performed exceptionally well with an accuracy score of 0.89, correctly identifying the constructor winner and a high number of top-10 finishes.的中: We correctly predicted Lando Norris as the pole sitter and the McLaren constructor advantage, recognizing their superior pace in the final sector throughout practice.外れ: We incorrectly predicted a red flag and failed to foresee the late-session yellow flag chaos caused by Verstappen and Russell, which ultimately determined the final top-10 shakeup. - セッションリプレイリプレイを見るラップごとの順位、ギャップ、フラッグ情報AIレース予想
予想の結論
FP3終了後表彰台予想Hamilton is a specialist at the Hungaroring with eight previous wins, and the Ferrari SF-26's high-downforce, low-speed cornering profile perfectly suits the circuit characteristics. His consistent form throughout the practice sessions indicates he has the best race pace management to deal with the expected high temperatures.
天気予報DRY気温31°C路面温度48°C雨13%風22 km/hレースインシデントセーフティカー×1yesVSC×1yes赤旗no#ドライバーチーム自信度自信度P4PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren49%P5AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes44%P6RussellGeorge RussellMercedes41%P7VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing38%P8HadjarIsack HadjarRed Bull Racing36%P9BortoletoGabriel BortoletoAudi32%P10HulkenbergNico HulkenbergAudi28%注目ポイント◆Track position is paramount due to extremely limited overtaking opportunities.◆Thermal degradation in 31°C heat will favor Ferrari's balanced setup.◆Reliability in high-temp conditions will be a differentiator for Mercedes and Aston Martin.波乱の可能性Gabriel BortoletoBortoleto executes a perfect one-stop strategy while others struggle with thermal deg, allowing him to jump the Red Bulls and Mercedes for a surprise top-six finish.クイックスタッツ優勝タイム差4.2完走扱い20その他の予想ファステストラップCharles Leclerc優勝コンストラクターFerrariFLコンストラクターFerrariピット戦略最初のピットインLance Stroll最後のピットインLewis Hamilton最速ピットストップMercedesチーム予想チームトップ3トップ6ポイントフィニッシュFerrari✓✓✓✓McLaren–✓✓✓Mercedes–✓✓✓Red Bull Racing––✓✓Audi––✓✓Racing Bulls–––✓Alpine–––✓Haas F1 Team–––✓Williams–––✓Cadillac–––✓Aston Martin–––✓予想項目確率判定Will Lance Stroll record a DNF?62%はいWill Pierre Gasly finish in the points (Top 10)?55%はいWill the pole-sitter win the race?58%はいWill there be more than 1 Safety Car period?24%いいえWill a Safety Car be deployed on Lap 1?18%いいえWill the WDC points gap between P1 and P2 shrink after this race?68%はいWill the race winner set the fastest lap?38%いいえWill a driver outside the top 3 WCC teams finish on the podium?32%いいえWill there be a leader change in the final 10 laps?15%いいえファン予想カテゴリー予想確率決定カオスWill a driver trigger a 'sandstorm' by running wide at the Turn 1/2 complex during the first three laps, blanketing the camera lens in track dust?75%あり ✗放送Will the world feed cut to a spectator in the grandstands wearing an inflatable pool toy or 'bather' outfit to cope with the sweltering trackside heat?45%あり ✗野生動物Will a bird fly low over the track surface during the race, prompting a commentator to make a 'dodging the wildlife' quip?55%あり ✗AIレース分析レース分析
Lando Norris breaks his 2026 duck with a composed drive to victory in Budapest while McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri suffers late heartbreak.The 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix proved to be a weekend of redemption for Lando Norris, who converted his pole position into a decisive victory, albeit not in the way he initially planned. The start saw fireworks as Oscar Piastri expertly navigated the opening sequence, utilizing a cutback at Turn 2 to snatch the lead from his teammate. For the first half of the race, Piastri looked masterful, maintaining a cushion over Norris and the field as they navigated the tight, twisty Hungaroring layout. The tactical tide began to turn as the race reached its middle phase. While the Ferraris of Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc attempted to force the issue with early stops for Hard tires, they were largely contained by Max Verstappen. The race took a dramatic turn when Piastri, who had been managing the lead beautifully, encountered misfortune while lapping Carlos Sainz. The contact proved terminal to his afternoon, not just in terms of track position but through the resulting gearbox failure that forced the Australian to retire. Norris, having kept his composure despite a minor off at Turn 4, seized the lead and managed the remaining laps to secure a well-deserved victory. Behind the leader, Max Verstappen quietly maximized his points haul in a difficult car, capitalizing on the chaos to claim second place. Kimi Antonelli continued his remarkable debut campaign with a gritty drive to the final step of the podium. Meanwhile, Ferrari’s afternoon ended in frustration; while Charles Leclerc crossed the line in fourth, teammate Lewis Hamilton, who initially held the position, was demoted to fifth after being slapped with a five-second penalty for pit lane speeding.戦略The race was a strategic chess match dictated by the high thermal degradation of the Hungaroring. Ferrari attempted an aggressive 'undercut' strategy with Lewis Hamilton stopping on lap 14, but the track's nature made overtaking difficult, negating the advantage. The one-stop strategy, which many teams flirted with, ultimately proved too punishing for the tires, forcing most frontrunners into a two-stop variation. McLaren’s execution was the differentiator; they allowed their drivers to race initially, and when the track position shifted due to the Piastri/Sainz collision, Norris had the fresher tire life and the discipline to pull away from the chasing Verstappen. The decision to prioritize tire conservation over raw pace in the second stint proved critical for Norris’s victory.ハイライト1周目Oscar Piastri makes a brilliant move at Turn 2, jumping polesitter Lando Norris for the lead.Piastri controlled the opening stint, forcing Norris to manage his pace from second for the first half of the race.14周目Lewis Hamilton pits early for Hards, triggering the first wave of pit stops for the frontrunners.Hamilton attempted to undercut the field, but the strategy was neutralized as Verstappen responded and maintained position.29周目Lando Norris runs wide at Turn 4, losing time and momentum in his chase of Piastri.The mistake caused Norris to drop further back, with race control and the pit wall warning the Briton to settle his pace.55周目Oscar Piastri encounters backmarker Carlos Sainz while being lapped, causing contact and significant damage.The incident compromised Piastri's pace, allowed Norris to close the gap, and contributed to the subsequent mechanical failure that ended his race.70周目Lando Norris crosses the line to secure his first victory of the 2026 season.Norris reclaimed his winning form, while a 5-second penalty for Lewis Hamilton for pit lane speeding dropped the Ferrari driver to fifth.ドライバー・オブ・ザ・デイLando NorrisFans selected Norris for his resilience, maintaining pressure on his teammate throughout the opening stint and capitalising perfectly on the opportunity to take his first win of the season when it presented itself.AIの注目ドライバーKimi AntonelliAntonelli once again proved his mettle by keeping his Mercedes stable under pressure, securing a vital podium finish while his championship rivals faltered.AI予想レビューOur prediction performance was poor, with an accuracy score of 0.31, as we failed to anticipate the specific nature of the McLaren intra-team battle.的中: We correctly identified that the Hungaroring would see a Virtual Safety Car period and accurately predicted that Lewis Hamilton would be involved in the pit-stop-related tactical drama.外れ: We wrongly predicted a Ferrari 1-2 with Hamilton as the winner, failing to account for the McLaren pace advantage and the costly pit lane penalty that ultimately hampered Hamilton's result.
フリー走行
- フリー走行1最速: Charles LECLERCAI不正解
- フリー走行2最速: Lewis HAMILTONAI不正解
- フリー走行3最速: Lando NORRISAI不正解
フリー走行1
予想の結論
Kimi Antonelli has demonstrated exceptional one-lap pace in recent practice sessions and continues to benefit from the Mercedes upgrade package, making him the favorite for FP1.
FP1 結果
スコアカード
直接対決
Gasly has consistently outperformed Colapinto in qualifying H2H (7-3) and is currently in a better form cycle, favoring him on the technical, twisty Hungaroring layout.
Alonso remains the clear team leader and significantly more consistent; my historical over-rating of Stroll reinforces the high confidence in Alonso.
Bortoleto is a rising talent who has matched Hulkenberg evenly this season; given my bias toward over-rating Hulkenberg, I lean toward the Brazilian's momentum.
With Colton Herta substituting for Bottas in this session, the experienced Perez should have a significant advantage in car familiarity and pace.
While Hamilton leads the season form, Leclerc holds the H2H qualifying edge and excels on tight, high-downforce circuits like Hungary.
Bearman has dominated Ocon 8-2 in qualifying this season and possesses a clear pace advantage that should translate well to the Hungaroring.
Norris maintains a slight edge in H2H and recent form; his ability to extract one-lap pace is crucial for the narrow Hungaroring track.
Antonelli has shown superior qualifying form (6-4 H2H) and is currently in better championship form than the struggling Russell.
Lawson leads the H2H, but Lindblad is an under-rated performer who often thrives on technical tracks; I am adjusting to correct my under-rating of Lindblad.
Verstappen remains the benchmark for raw speed and cornering precision, which is essential for the tight and twisty Hungaroring.
Sainz has a massive H2H lead (8-1) and Albon is a driver I have historically over-rated, making the pick for the Spaniard very secure.
レース分析
フリー走行2
予想の結論
Leclerc demonstrated strong pace in FP1 and Ferrari's seasonal form on permanent circuits suggests they will optimize setup efficiently for qualifying simulations.
FP2 結果
スコアカード
直接対決
Gasly holds a superior qualifying H2H record this season and brings more experience to a technical circuit like the Hungaroring, despite Colapinto's solid form.
Alonso significantly outperforms Stroll in season form and H2H metrics, maintaining an edge even during practice sessions at traditional circuits.
Bortoleto showed better pace in FP1 and carries stronger momentum; Hulkenberg has been prone to being over-rated in predictions this season.
While both drivers struggle with consistency, Perez has frequently been over-rated in previous predictions, tilting the slight edge toward Bottas in a tight battle.
Leclerc topped FP1 and generally excels on technical tracks like the Hungaroring, giving him the edge for single-lap pace in FP2.
Ocon maintains a higher season form index and is more reliable in translating practice pace into competitive lap times than the rookie Bearman.
Piastri has demonstrated a higher ceiling in recent rounds compared to Norris, who has struggled with his recent form index.
Antonelli's season form has been significantly stronger than Russell's, and he is better positioned to maximize the Mercedes car's potential in Friday sessions.
Lindblad outperformed Lawson in FP1 and tends to be under-rated in predictions, suggesting he has the pace to edge his teammate again.
Despite Hadjar's impressive recent growth, Verstappen remains the class of the field and consistently extracts more raw pace over a single lap.
Albon has been over-rated in recent predictions; Sainz holds the qualifying head-to-head advantage and is likely to find more pace as the session progresses.
レース分析
フリー走行3
予想の結論
Hamilton showed dominant pace in FP2 and, alongside teammate Leclerc, has demonstrated the strongest single-lap and long-run performance in the Ferrari across Friday's sessions.
FP3 結果
スコアカード
直接対決
Gasly holds a superior 7-3 qualifying H2H record and, as I tend to under-rate him, he likely has more pace in reserve for a qualifying simulation than the data suggests.
Alonso dominates the H2H 7-2, and Stroll is consistently prone to being over-rated by my projections, suggesting a significant gap in single-lap performance.
Bortoleto shows stronger recent form and is under-rated in my system, while Hulkenberg has a bias toward being over-rated, making Bortoleto the sharper choice for a fast lap.
While both are often over-rated, Perez leads the H2H 6-4 and has historically shown a slight edge in qualifying-spec runs over Bottas this season.
Hamilton showed dominant pace in FP2 at the Hungaroring and leads the season form index; he currently has the momentum over Leclerc at this circuit.
Bearman has established a commanding 8-2 qualifying H2H lead and consistently maximizes the Haas potential on single-lap runs.
Norris leads the H2H 6-4 and showed superior pace in FP2, indicating he is currently the faster McLaren over a single lap.
Antonelli's form is currently in a declining phase, whereas Russell remains a consistent performer at permanent circuits and outpaced his teammate in FP2.
Lawson leads the H2H and, as an under-rated driver in my system, he is better positioned to outperform Lindblad during the low-fuel qualifying sims of FP3.
Despite Hadjar's strong form, Verstappen's 7-2 H2H record and experience on the Hungaroring make him the safe bet for a pure one-lap pace session.
Sainz holds a dominant 8-1 H2H advantage, while Albon is consistently over-rated by my metrics, signaling a clear performance gap.
レース分析
Hungarian Grand Prix 予想に関するよくある質問
- 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix (Budapest) の優勝予想は?
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix (Budapest) の表彰台予想は?
- P1: Lewis Hamilton。P2: Charles Leclerc。P3: Lando Norris。
- 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix (Budapest) のポールポジション予想は?
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- Hungarian Grand Prix の予想においてAIが考慮する要素は?
- Track position is paramount due to extremely limited overtaking opportunities.. Thermal degradation in 31°C heat will favor Ferrari's balanced setup..