DutchグランプリZandvoort
2026 Dutch Grand Prixの結果：Circuit Park Zandvoortでのレース順位、表彰台、予選、ファステストラップ、ピットストップ、セクタータイム、さらにAI予測のスコアを掲載。2026年8月23日。
AIの予測結果
AIは勝者を外しました。
- P1NORRISLando NORRISMcLarenRussellGeorge Russell外れ
- P2ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedesAntonelliKimi Antonelli的中
- P3RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELLMercedesNorrisLando Norris外れ
スコアカード
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次戦: United States GP
予想締切まで
結果とAI予測の比較
キーモーメント
Lando Norris masterclass secures second consecutive victory as Verstappen's home race ends in heartbreak.
- 1周目Max Verstappen crashes into the barriers at the final corner.Triggered an immediate Red Flag to clear debris, halting the race for a significant period.
- 4周目Race restart following the Red Flag.Kimi Antonelli seizes the lead from Lando Norris as the field goes back to green-flag racing.
- 45周目Lando Norris overtakes Kimi Antonelli.Norris reclaimed the race lead after managing his tire life effectively through the mid-stint.
- 68周目Virtual Safety Car (VSC) deployed for Esteban Ocon.Allowed field members to pit for fresh tires, tightening the final gaps, but Norris held his position at the front.
直接対決
Norris starts from pole position and maintains a stronger season form, giving him the advantage in race pace and track position.
Russell qualified ahead of Antonelli and holds a tactical advantage at the start, despite Antonelli's superior season standing.
Hamilton starts ahead of Leclerc and demonstrates more consistent race-day management, justifying his lead in the season form index.
Verstappen carries significant experience and starts higher on the grid than his teammate, making him the clear favorite.
Bortoleto starts significantly further up the grid, and Hulkenberg has a known bias toward being over-rated in race finishing positions.
Lindblad starts ahead and benefits from an 'under-rated' performance bias, suggesting he has the pace to defend his track position.
Gasly has a superior H2H qualifying record and holds a grid advantage, with historical form favoring him over his teammate.
Ocon maintains a substantial starting position advantage over Bearman, which is crucial at a technical circuit like Zandvoort.
Sainz dominates the H2H record against Albon, who tends to be over-rated in finishing predictions, making Sainz the likely better finisher.
Alonso consistently outperforms Stroll, and Stroll's strong 'over-rated' bias suggests he is unlikely to convert his proximity into a win.
Despite both drivers having performance biases, Bottas starts ahead and maintains a slight head-to-head edge.
ウィークエンド
- AIレース予想
予想の結論
SQポールP1NorrisLando NorrisMcLaren67%P2AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes64%P3RussellGeorge RussellMercedes58%Norris demonstrated exceptional single-lap pace and recent form at the Hungarian GP, and with McLaren's strong performance across varied track types this season, he is best positioned to capitalize on the dry, stable conditions expected.
天気予報DRY気温18°C路面温度32°C雨15%風15 km/hレースインシデント赤旗yes#ドライバーチーム自信度自信度P4HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari52%P5LeclercCharles LeclercFerrari49%P6PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren47%P7VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing42%P8HadjarIsack HadjarRed Bull Racing38%P9GaslyPierre GaslyAlpine31%P10LawsonLiam LawsonRacing Bulls28%番狂わせの敗退Alexander AlbonSQ1で敗退: Despite his consistent driving, the Williams car has historically struggled with single-lap pace on tight, high-downforce circuits like Zandvoort, leading to an early exit.クイックスタッツポールタイム差0.080その他の予想SQ1最速Lando Norris (0.120s)SQ2最速Kimi Antonelli (0.050s)優勝コンストラクターMcLarenスプリント予選結果結果
#ドライバーチームQ1Q2Q3P1RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELLMercedes13.2781:13.27812.2351:12.23511.5671:11.567P2NORRISLando NORRISMcLaren13.0711:13.07112.1891:12.18911.6081:11.608P3LECLERCCharles LECLERCFerrari13.0111:13.01112.1901:12.19011.6221:11.622P4PIASTRIOscar PIASTRIMcLaren13.1261:13.12612.0261:12.02611.6661:11.666P5ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedes13.6681:13.66812.5111:12.51111.7941:11.794P6VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull Racing13.5851:13.58512.7711:12.77112.0941:12.094P7HAMILTONLewis HAMILTONFerrari13.1511:13.15112.4451:12.44512.1911:12.191P8GASLYPierre GASLYAlpine13.9771:13.97712.7201:12.72012.5781:12.578P9BORTOLETOGabriel BORTOLETOAudi13.7301:13.73012.7861:12.78612.5831:12.583P10LINDBLADArvid LINDBLADRacing Bulls14.0571:14.05712.7851:12.78512.7371:12.737P11LAWSONLiam LAWSONOUT Q2Red Bull Racing13.4201:13.42013.1361:13.136–P12TSUNODAYuki TSUNODAゲストOUT Q2Racing Bulls14.4901:14.49013.1451:13.145–P13COLAPINTOFranco COLAPINTOOUT Q2Alpine14.6181:14.61813.4391:13.439–P14HULKENBERGNico HULKENBERGOUT Q2Audi14.2841:14.28413.6161:13.616–P15OCONEsteban OCONOUT Q2Haas F1 Team14.5031:14.50313.8931:13.893–P16ALBONAlexander ALBONOUT Q2Williams14.5961:14.59614.2941:14.294–P17BEARMANOliver BEARMANOUT Q1Haas F1 Team14.7281:14.728––P18SAINZCarlos SAINZOUT Q1Williams14.7381:14.738––P19STROLLLance STROLLOUT Q1Aston Martin15.3911:15.391––P20BOTTASValtteri BOTTASOUT Q1Cadillac15.4721:15.472––P21PEREZSergio PEREZOUT Q1Cadillac15.5451:15.545––P22ALONSOFernando ALONSOOUT Q1Aston Martin16.0141:16.014––天候ドライ気温19.4°C路面温度33°C湿度57%風2.4 km/h予想精度スコアカード
予想精度予想 vs 実績項目予想実績結果脱落予想SQ1Q2天候drydry気温18°19°レッドフラッグyesno予想ポールポジションTOP 580%コンストラクターチーム予想10/11 件の的中直接対決4/11チームメイト対決直接対決
ドライバーリザルトGasly has superior season form and demonstrated stronger pace in FP1, giving him the edge to maintain his lead in the teammate qualifying battle.
Alonso consistently outperforms Stroll in qualifying and holds a significant season H2H advantage, which is expected to continue on this technical circuit.
Despite Bortoleto's improvement, Hulkenberg's experience and stronger FP1 performance give him a slight edge in a very tight teammate battle.
Perez leads the seasonal head-to-head and possesses a slight edge in experience, though both drivers struggle with consistency at this circuit.
Hamilton's current form index is the highest on the grid, and his strong FP1 pace signals he has the upper hand in qualifying setup this weekend.
Bearman has dominated the seasonal qualifying H2H and showed slightly better pace in FP1 compared to Ocon.
Norris's FP1 performance and superior seasonal qualifying form make him the clear favorite to outqualify Piastri.
Antonelli has been the stronger qualifier this season and topped FP1, suggesting he has the better one-lap speed in the current car setup.
Lindblad showed better pace in FP1 and is currently trending upwards, giving him the momentum to edge out Lawson in this session.
Verstappen remains the benchmark at Red Bull and consistently delivers higher qualifying peaks than his teammate.
Sainz has a dominant 9-1 season qualifying head-to-head record against Albon and is the clear favorite to lead the Williams pair.
AIスプリント予選分析レース分析
George Russell denies Lando Norris in a breathless, high-stakes Zandvoort sprint qualifying shootout.George Russell snatched a crucial pole position for the Dutch Grand Prix sprint, ending a tense, ultra-competitive session at Zandvoort. The Mercedes driver emerged from a tight three-way fight between Mercedes, McLaren, and Ferrari, laying down a 1:11.567 that proved just enough to hold off championship contender Lando Norris. It was a testament to the fine margins at the top; Norris missed out by a mere 0.041 seconds, with Charles Leclerc—who had dominated the opening segment—only a further 0.014 seconds back. The session was a rollercoaster, particularly for Mercedes' Kimi Antonelli. Despite sustaining significant floor damage after an excursion at the penultimate corner in SQ1, the rookie showed remarkable resilience to fight through to the final shootout, ultimately claiming P5. Meanwhile, McLaren demonstrated formidable one-lap pace, with Oscar Piastri topping SQ2 before settling for the second row. Max Verstappen, roared on by the home crowd, could only manage P6, unable to find the extra tenths needed to challenge the top quartet in what is shaping up to be an intensely close sprint race.戦略The limited track time in Zandvoort emphasized the importance of immediate setup correlation. Teams like McLaren and Mercedes clearly arrived with a strong baseline, allowing them to focus on tyre preparation and rhythm rather than major overnight surgery. The closeness of the field—with the top four separated by less than a tenth—suggests that track evolution was the primary variable; drivers who managed their tyre thermal profiles effectively in the final, cool, high-grip moments of SQ3 were the ones who moved to the front. The midfield remained congested, proving that finding a clear gap in traffic was just as vital as pure car pace. With limited opportunities to fine-tune setup during the single practice session, drivers were forced to compromise, leading to some unexpected gaps further down the order as teams struggled to find the optimal balance for the short, twisty Dutch circuit.ハイライトSQ1Kimi Antonelli suffers floor damageThe championship leader ran wide at the penultimate corner, damaging his Mercedes, yet still managed to push through to SQ3 and secure P5.SQ2Oscar Piastri tops SQ2The McLaren driver set a blistering pace in the second segment, signaling the team's threat before eventually qualifying fourth.SQ3Pole position decided by marginsRussell's 1:11.567 final lap edged out Lando Norris by just 0.041s in a session where the top four were separated by less than a tenth of a second.AIの注目ドライバーKimi AntonelliDespite nursing floor damage from an early-session mistake, Antonelli's ability to remain competitive and land a top-five starting spot was a masterclass in damage limitation.AI予想レビューOur predictions struggled with the high-variance nature of the session, though we correctly identified the competitive landscape of the top teams.的中: We successfully predicted the team performance trends, correctly forecasting 10 out of 11 team outcomes in terms of top-10 presence.外れ: We predicted a red flag that never materialized, and our expectation of a McLaren pole-sitter was denied by Russell's late-session charge. - セッションリプレイリプレイを見るラップごとの順位、ギャップ、フラッグ情報AIレース予想
予想の結論
スプリント表彰台Russell secured pole position and Zandvoort is notoriously difficult to overtake on, meaning a clean start should allow him to control the pace. Mercedes has shown strong one-lap and race pace in the 2026 season, giving him the advantage over the chasing McLaren.
天気予報CLOUDY気温18°C路面温度30°C雨45%風14 km/hレースインシデントセーフティカーnoVSCno赤旗no#ドライバーチーム自信度自信度P4PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren49%P5VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing43%P6AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes41%P7HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari37%P8GaslyPierre GaslyAlpine33%P9BortoletoGabriel BortoletoAudi29%P10LawsonLiam LawsonRed Bull Racing27%注目ポイント◆High difficulty of overtaking at Zandvoort◆Sprint grid positioning from Qualifying◆Cool, unsettled weather increasing risk of minor errorsオーバーテイク注目Max VerstappenStarting P6 at his final home grand prix, Verstappen is likely to apply high aggression on the opening laps to pass Kimi Antonelli for 5th.クイックスタッツ優勝タイム差2.1完走扱い20その他の予想ファステストラップGeorge Russell優勝コンストラクターMercedesFLコンストラクターMercedesスプリント結果結果
#ドライバーチームポイントグリッド+/−タイムFLP1RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELLMercedes8P1–1:14.9361:14.936P2LECLERCCharles LECLERCFerrari7P3+1+1.360s1:15.049P3NORRISLando NORRISMcLaren6P2-1+5.196s1:14.881P4ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedes5P5+1+5.581s1:14.990P5PIASTRIOscar PIASTRIMcLaren4P4-1+10.185s1:15.324P6VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull3P6–+10.529s1:15.443P7HAMILTONLewis HAMILTONFerrari2P7–+12.188s1:15.557P8GASLYPierre GASLYAlpine F1 Team1P8–+42.510s1:16.895P9BORTOLETOGabriel BORTOLETOAudi–P9–+44.437s1:16.922P10LINDBLADArvid LINDBLADRB F1 Team–P10–+44.971s1:16.886P11LAWSONLiam LAWSONRed Bull–P11–+47.471s1:16.909P12COLAPINTOFranco COLAPINTOAlpine F1 Team–P13+1+54.466s1:16.718P13TSUNODAYuki TSUNODAゲストRB F1 Team–P12-1+56.483s1:16.925P14OCONEsteban OCONHaas F1 Team–P15+1+66.098s1:17.138P15BEARMANOliver BEARMANHaas F1 Team–P17+2+66.588s1:17.137P16ALBONAlexander ALBONWilliams–P16–+74.632s1:17.673P17STROLLLance STROLLAston Martin–P18+1+74.650s1:17.713P18ALONSOFernando ALONSOAston Martin–P22+4+75.284s1:17.449P19BOTTASValtteri BOTTASCadillac F1 Team–P19–+1 LAP1:17.710P20SAINZCarlos SAINZWilliams–P21+1+1 LAP1:17.431P21PEREZSergio PEREZCadillac F1 Team–P20-1+3 LAPS1:17.462DNFHULKENBERGNico HULKENBERGLappedAudi–P14–1:17.706天候ドライ気温17.8°C路面温度25.4°C湿度63%風2.7 km/h予想精度スコアカード
予想精度予想 vs 実績項目予想実績結果マージン2.1s1.36s天候cloudydry気温18°18°予想優勝表彰台33%TOP 8100%コンストラクターファステストラップ直接対決8/11チームメイト対決直接対決
ドライバーリザルトGasly showed superior one-lap pace in Sprint Qualifying and has stronger recent form, giving him the edge for the sprint race start and pace.
Stroll has historically been over-rated in predictions, and Alonso retains a significant advantage in race craft and experience to overcome the grid deficit.
Bortoleto displayed better Sprint Qualifying pace, and Hulkenberg has a recurring bias of being over-predicted relative to his actual finishing results.
Despite Bottas's participation, Perez possesses higher race-day upside, and Bottas consistently struggles to convert qualifying positions into better race finishes.
Leclerc outqualified Hamilton in the Sprint session and has shown significant improvement in race form recently.
Ocon secured a higher starting position in Sprint Qualifying and has more consistent race-day management in the Haas.
Norris has demonstrated superior pace throughout the weekend and holds a better season-long form, making him the clear favorite.
Russell took pole for the Sprint, and his ability to defend and manage tires at Zandvoort makes him the likely winner.
Lindblad outperformed Lawson in Sprint Qualifying and is currently under-rated in performance models, indicating potential for a strong sprint.
Verstappen remains the lead driver with significantly more experience and better outright pace in a critical Sprint format.
Albon tends to be over-predicted in finishing position, whereas Sainz has shown better race pace consistency relative to the field.
AIスプリント分析レース分析
George Russell dominates Zandvoort sprint as Charles Leclerc’s soft-tyre gamble pays off.George Russell delivered a masterclass at Zandvoort, converting his pole position into a lights-to-flag victory that saw him largely untroubled at the front of the pack. While the Mercedes driver managed his medium tires to perfection, the real tactical intrigue played out behind him. Charles Leclerc, opting for the soft compound, showcased superior grip in the early stages, patiently biding his time behind Lando Norris before executing a clean move for second on lap 18. The race behind the leaders was characterized by Zandvoort’s notoriously difficult overtaking conditions. Kimi Antonelli impressed by dispatching Oscar Piastri early in the race to claim fourth, ensuring both Mercedes cars remained in the hunt at the sharp end of the field. Meanwhile, Max Verstappen’s home sprint was a muted affair, with the Red Bull driver unable to find a way past Piastri and ultimately settling for a sixth-place finish as the leaders pulled away.戦略The sprint highlighted the classic Zandvoort trade-off between pure pace and track position. The majority of the field opted for mediums, but Charles Leclerc’s soft-tire gamble provided the edge needed to challenge the McLarens. However, once the order stabilized, the difficulty of overtaking on this tight circuit meant that even with a tire advantage, track position remained king for George Russell, who controlled the gap from the front without needing to push to the absolute limit.ハイライト1周目Lights out; George Russell defends his pole position comfortably into Turn 1 while Charles Leclerc, on soft tires, instantly pressurizes the field.Established the order at the front, allowing Russell to manage his pace while Leclerc immediately engaged in a tactical game against Norris.5周目Kimi Antonelli makes a decisive overtake on Oscar Piastri to move into fourth position.Solidified the top order and put pressure on the leading trio, marking a standout moment for the championship leader.18周目Charles Leclerc finally completes his overtake on Lando Norris for second place.Validated the Ferrari soft-tire strategy, though the gap to race leader Russell proved too large to bridge in the closing laps.ドライバー・オブ・ザ・デイCharles LeclercLeclerc's aggressive strategy choice to run the soft tires paid dividends; he managed degradation brilliantly to overcome Norris and secure a well-deserved second place.AIの注目ドライバーKimi AntonelliAntonelli showed maturity beyond his years, executing a precise early-race move on Piastri and maintaining high-level pace to secure a solid fourth.AI予想レビューOur prediction was highly accurate, correctly identifying the winner and the general podium contenders.的中: We correctly predicted George Russell would win and that he would be the strongest driver on the grid, securing 8 points.外れ: We swapped the positions of Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc on the podium, underestimating the effectiveness of the Ferrari's soft-tire strategy. - セッションリプレイリプレイを見るラップごとの順位、ギャップ、フラッグ情報AIレース予想
予想の結論
ポールポジション予想Russell has shown exceptional form at Zandvoort this weekend, topping the Sprint Qualifying and winning the Sprint, demonstrating a superior car balance on the tight, twisty circuit.
天気予報DRY気温22°C路面温度38°C雨35%風15 km/hレースインシデント赤旗yes#ドライバーチーム自信度自信度P4PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren59%P5AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes56%P6VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing52%P7HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari48%P8GaslyPierre GaslyAlpine41%P9BortoletoGabriel BortoletoAudi37%P10LindbladArvid LindbladRacing Bulls34%番狂わせの敗退Fernando AlonsoQ1で敗退: Aston Martin has struggled significantly with single-lap pace at permanent high-downforce circuits this season, often trapping them in the first segment.クイックスタッツポールタイム差0.080その他の予想Q1最速Lando Norris (0.180s)Q2最速George Russell (0.120s)優勝コンストラクターMercedes予選結果結果
#ドライバーチームQ1Q2Q3P1NORRISLando NORRISMcLaren12.6951:12.69511.6281:11.62811.1631:11.163P2RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELLMercedes12.9241:12.92411.9591:11.95911.2651:11.265P3ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedes13.0221:13.02211.9151:11.91511.2961:11.296P4PIASTRIOscar PIASTRIMcLaren12.6101:12.61011.6411:11.64111.3051:11.305P5HAMILTONLewis HAMILTONFerrari12.6731:12.67311.9701:11.97011.4941:11.494P6LECLERCCharles LECLERCFerrari13.0641:13.06411.9101:11.91011.5581:11.558P7VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull13.2901:13.29011.8741:11.87411.6181:11.618P8LAWSONLiam LAWSONRed Bull13.3921:13.39212.3011:12.30111.7331:11.733P9BORTOLETOGabriel BORTOLETOAudi13.1421:13.14212.4331:12.43312.0791:12.079P10LINDBLADArvid LINDBLADRB F1 Team13.0741:13.07412.5251:12.52512.1851:12.185P11GASLYPierre GASLYOUT Q2Alpine F1 Team13.1151:13.11512.6161:12.616–P12TSUNODAYuki TSUNODAゲストOUT Q2RB F1 Team13.0851:13.08512.6271:12.627–P13HULKENBERGNico HULKENBERGOUT Q2Audi13.1881:13.18812.7971:12.797–P14COLAPINTOFranco COLAPINTOOUT Q2Alpine F1 Team13.3221:13.32212.8001:12.800–P15OCONEsteban OCONOUT Q2Haas F1 Team13.5441:13.54413.1371:13.137–P16ALBONAlexander ALBONOUT Q2Williams13.5521:13.55213.1821:13.182–P17SAINZCarlos SAINZOUT Q1Williams13.5741:13.574––P18ALONSOFernando ALONSOOUT Q1Aston Martin13.6501:13.650––P19STROLLLance STROLLOUT Q1Aston Martin13.8181:13.818––P20BEARMANOliver BEARMANOUT Q1Haas F1 Team13.8261:13.826––P21BOTTASValtteri BOTTASOUT Q1Cadillac F1 Team14.3711:14.371––P22PEREZSergio PEREZOUT Q1Cadillac F1 Team14.6001:14.600––天候ドライ気温18.1°C路面温度32.5°C湿度58%風2.5 km/h予想精度スコアカード
予想精度予想 vs 実績項目予想実績結果脱落予想Q1Q1マージン0.08s0.23s天候drydry気温22°18°レッドフラッグyesno予想ポールポジションQ1最速Q2最速TOP 580%コンストラクターチーム予想10/11 件の的中直接対決6/11チームメイト対決直接対決
ドライバーリザルトGasly holds a superior 7-3 head-to-head advantage this season and typically maximizes the Alpine's one-lap potential better than Colapinto.
Alonso dominates the internal head-to-head 8-2, and with Stroll historically over-rated by my metrics, Alonso remains the clear favorite for qualifying pace.
While the season H2H is close, Hulkenberg is frequently over-rated by my models; Bortoleto has shown better recent momentum at Zandvoort.
Perez leads the head-to-head 6-4, and despite both drivers often being over-rated by my metrics, Perez remains the more consistent qualifier.
Leclerc holds a narrow 6-5 head-to-head lead and showed stronger single-lap pace in the Sprint Qualifying session compared to Hamilton.
Bearman has consistently outperformed Ocon in qualifying with an 8-3 record this season, making him the reliable favorite.
Norris leads the H2H 7-4 and has been the more consistent performer over a single lap, maintaining strong form throughout the Dutch GP weekend.
Russell has dominated the track this weekend with a Sprint Qualifying pole and Sprint win, signaling he has found a superior setup compared to Antonelli.
Despite my tendency to slightly under-rate Lawson, his 6-4 H2H advantage in this team pairing makes him the statistically safer pick for qualifying.
Verstappen’s 7-2 qualifying record against Hadjar remains the strongest indicator, and his experience at Zandvoort provides a critical edge.
Sainz has a commanding 9-1 qualifying head-to-head record over Albon, whose qualifying performance is frequently over-rated by my metrics.
AI予選分析レース分析
Lando Norris clinches dramatic Zandvoort pole as rain threatens to disrupt final shootout.Saturday at Zandvoort evolved into a masterclass of tension, defined by a looming threat of rain that kept the entire paddock on edge. While the Sprint had been a more controlled affair for George Russell, the main qualifying session saw McLaren turn the tables. As Q1 and Q2 progressed, the track evolution was rapid, demanding perfect tire preparation in the cooler, windy conditions. The midfield battle proved treacherous; Aston Martin’s struggles continued, with both Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll unable to find the pace required to advance, a recurring theme for the team this season. By the time Q3 arrived, the atmosphere was electric. Mercedes appeared to hold the upper hand initially with George Russell and a flying Kimi Antonelli, who looked determined to assert himself at the front. However, as darker clouds gathered over the dunes, Lando Norris executed a flawless final sector to clock a 1:11.163. Russell fought back valiantly, ultimately missing out by just over a tenth, while Antonelli secured a career-high starting position in third. Max Verstappen, amidst a difficult home weekend, could only manage seventh, struggling to extract the same level of confidence from the Red Bull as he had in previous seasons.戦略The primary strategic variable at Zandvoort today was timing in relation to the weather. Teams were acutely aware of the forecast for rain in Q3, resulting in a 'rush to the front' mentality that saw drivers prioritize track position over perfect tire temperature cycles. Traffic management in the twisty final sector remained a persistent headache, with several drivers forced to abort initial warm-up laps to create space. The track evolution between sessions was significant, rewarding those who saved their best sets of soft tires for the final runs. While Mercedes opted for a setup focused on tire longevity for the race, McLaren’s balance allowed them to be more aggressive with their warm-up, a crucial difference that ultimately secured Norris the top spot.ハイライトQ1Aston Martin and Haas struggle for pace, failing to progressFernando Alonso and Lance Stroll (Aston Martin) and Oliver Bearman (Haas) exited in Q1, highlighting significant balance issues at the high-downforce circuit.Q2Tight midfield congestion complicates track evolutionThe gap between the top 10 and the drop zone was razor-thin, forcing drivers to take extra risks on track evolution that left little margin for error.Q3Rain clouds loom during the final Q3 attemptsWith meteorological forecasts indicating potential rain, drivers rushed their final flying laps, creating a frantic scramble that ultimately saw Norris secure pole as track conditions stabilized just enough.AIの注目ドライバーKimi AntonelliSecuring P3 in such a tightly contested session demonstrates exceptional maturity and speed, outperforming more experienced veterans in challenging conditions.AI予想レビューOur prediction performance was mixed, accurately identifying the strong team order but missing on the specific pole sitter and the red flag outcome.的中: We correctly predicted the relative strength of the teams, successfully anticipating that both Mercedes and McLaren would have both drivers in the top 10.外れ: We wrongly predicted a red flag and identified George Russell as the pole-sitter, whereas Lando Norris ultimately produced the decisive lap in a clean, uninterrupted session. - セッションリプレイリプレイを見るラップごとの順位、ギャップ、フラッグ情報AIレース予想
予想の結論
予選終了後表彰台予想P1RussellGeorge RussellMercedes43%P2AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes39%P3NorrisLando NorrisMcLaren36%George Russell starts P2 and demonstrated winning race pace during his dominant victory in the Sprint race earlier this weekend. Mercedes has shown superior tire management and straight-line efficiency, putting Russell in a prime position to overtake Norris at the start or during the pit stops.
天気予報DRY気温18°C路面温度32°C雨12%風16 km/hレースインシデントセーフティカー×1yesVSC×1yes赤旗no#ドライバーチーム自信度自信度P4LeclercCharles LeclercFerrari31%P5HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari29%P6VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing27%P7PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren24%P8LawsonLiam LawsonRacing Bulls21%P9LindbladArvid LindbladRacing Bulls19%P10GaslyPierre GaslyAlpine17%注目ポイント◆George Russell's strong start and superior race pace on the C3 medium tires as observed in his Sprint win [1.2.1].◆Lando Norris and McLaren struggling with higher tire wear over long runs at the high-energy Zandvoort banked corners.◆Oscar Piastri falling 3 places due to high tire degradation over the 72-lap race distance, a persistent issue for McLaren.◆Oliver Bearman recovering 4 places owing to a very strong race pace and Haas's flexible undercut strategy in the midfield.波乱の可能性Charles LeclercIf Charles Leclerc can execute an aggressive undercut from P6 and the Mercedes drivers get caught in traffic or fight each other, Ferrari's superior tire management could propel Leclerc onto the top step.クイックスタッツ優勝タイム差2.8完走扱い20その他の予想ファステストラップLando Norris優勝コンストラクターMercedesFLコンストラクターMcLarenピット戦略最初のピットインEsteban Ocon最後のピットインCarlos Sainz最速ピットストップRed Bull Racingチーム予想チームトップ3トップ6ポイントフィニッシュMercedes✓✓✓✓Ferrari–✓✓✓McLaren––✓✓Red Bull Racing––✓✓Racing Bulls––✓✓Alpine–––✓Audi–––✓Haas F1 Team–––✓Williams–––✓Aston Martin–––✓Cadillac–––✓予想項目確率判定Will Arvid Lindblad finish in the points (Top 10)?63%はいWill the pole sitter win the race?72%はいWill there be a first-lap incident requiring a yellow flag or investigation?58%はいWill the race winner set the fastest lap?54%はいWill there be more than one safety car deployment?42%いいえWill the WDC points gap between P1 and P2 shrink after this race?46%いいえWill a driver from outside the top 3 WCC teams finish on the podium?22%いいえWill there be a leader change in the final 10 laps?18%いいえファン予想カテゴリー予想確率決定文化Will a driver's onboard camera feed be visibly obscured by orange smoke during the race?92%あり ✓野生動物Will a seagull be shown on the broadcast sitting on the track or the perimeter fencing during the race?60%あり ✗カオスWill the broadcast show a car kicking up a cloud of sand from the dune-side run-off areas?75%あり ✗AIレース分析レース分析
Lando Norris masterclass secures second consecutive victory as Verstappen's home race ends in heartbreak.The 2026 Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort provided a dramatic farewell to one of the calendar’s most atmospheric circuits. The race exploded into action immediately when, on the opening lap, local hero Max Verstappen lost control of his Red Bull on the damp final corner and slammed into the barriers, triggering an immediate Red Flag. The incident silenced the 'Orange Army' and required a lengthy suspension to clear the significant debris scattered across the track. Once the race resumed with a standing restart, Kimi Antonelli—who had been lurking close behind—made a brilliant move to overtake pole-sitter Lando Norris for the lead. The young Mercedes driver held the advantage for the majority of the race, appearing comfortable at the front. However, Norris, in his McLaren, showcased superior tire management and patience. As the race entered its final third, Norris steadily closed the gap, ultimately executing a clinical overtake on lap 45 to reclaim the lead. A late Virtual Safety Car, caused by Esteban Ocon coming to a halt on the track, compressed the field and opened a final pit window. While Mercedes attempted to manage their two-car strategy by inverting positions to put Antonelli in a stronger position, Norris remained untouchable at the front. The McLaren driver crossed the line to take his second consecutive victory, leaving the Mercedes duo of Antonelli and George Russell to complete the podium.戦略The race was defined by the handling of the Red Flag and the later VSC. Teams had to balance the risk of pitting during the mid-race window against the durability of the C3 tires. McLaren’s strategy was focused on the long game; they prioritized tire integrity, which allowed Norris to maintain consistent pace even when he was chasing Antonelli. Mercedes attempted a split strategy, utilizing team orders to support Antonelli’s title charge, but they couldn't overcome the pace deficit to the McLaren in the final stint. The late VSC added a layer of complexity, but Norris had already built a sufficient buffer, and the lack of a full Safety Car meant the field didn't bunch up enough for the chasing pack to mount a genuine challenge on the final laps.ハイライト1周目Max Verstappen crashes into the barriers at the final corner.Triggered an immediate Red Flag to clear debris, halting the race for a significant period.4周目Race restart following the Red Flag.Kimi Antonelli seizes the lead from Lando Norris as the field goes back to green-flag racing.45周目Lando Norris overtakes Kimi Antonelli.Norris reclaimed the race lead after managing his tire life effectively through the mid-stint.68周目Virtual Safety Car (VSC) deployed for Esteban Ocon.Allowed field members to pit for fresh tires, tightening the final gaps, but Norris held his position at the front.ドライバー・オブ・ザ・デイLando NorrisFans voted for Norris for his composed and strategic drive, which saw him lose the lead after the restart but fight back to defeat the Mercedes duo on pace alone.AIの注目ドライバーKimi AntonelliDespite missing out on the win, Antonelli's ability to jump Norris on the restart and lead the majority of the race demonstrates maturity and pace well beyond his years.AI予想レビューOur prediction correctly identified the podium contenders but struggled to account for the specific sequence of interruptions.的中: We correctly predicted the podium composition (Norris, Antonelli, Russell) and the team performance for Mercedes and Ferrari.外れ: We predicted a standard Safety Car deployment, but the race featured a major Red Flag incident and a Virtual Safety Car instead, which significantly altered the race flow.
フリー走行
- フリー走行1最速: Kimi ANTONELLIAI不正解
フリー走行1
予想の結論
Norris has shown exceptional recent form and high-speed consistency, which is crucial for the single practice session available during this sprint weekend.
FP1 結果
スコアカード
直接対決
Gasly consistently holds the edge in qualifying pace and experience, which is critical for a technical circuit like Zandvoort where setup time is limited due to the Sprint format.
Alonso remains the team's primary driver, and while Aston Martin brings a significant update, Alonso's ability to extract pace on a challenging, narrow circuit typically outclasses his teammate.
Hulkenberg is frequently over-rated in predictions, and Bortoleto has shown strong improvement trends; the tight Zandvoort layout often favors the adaptability of the younger driver.
Despite both drivers suffering from prediction biases, Perez generally maintains a performance buffer over Bottas in single-lap scenarios.
Hamilton's current form index and high-speed circuit mastery give him the edge, even against an improving Leclerc, for a critical FP1 session.
Bearman has dominated the internal qualifying head-to-head this season and is better equipped to handle the demands of a high-downforce technical track.
Norris has been the more consistent qualifier throughout the 2026 season and holds a significant advantage in extracting pace from the McLaren package.
Antonelli has outperformed Russell in the H2H standings this season and is currently adapting better to the Mercedes car, making him the favorite for single-lap pace.
Lawson has the experience edge and a strong upward trend in recent races, which will be vital for a clean and fast FP1 in a Sprint weekend format.
As the local hero at a track he knows exceptionally well, Verstappen's confidence and pace advantage over his teammate remain the strongest factors in this matchup.
Sainz has significantly outperformed Albon in qualifying this season, and his technical feedback will be crucial for Williams' performance at this circuit.
レース分析
Dutch Grand Prix 予想に関するよくある質問
- 2026 Dutch Grand Prix (Zandvoort) の優勝予想は？
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- 2026 Dutch Grand Prix (Zandvoort) の表彰台予想は？
- P1: George Russell。P2: Kimi Antonelli。P3: Lando Norris。
- 2026 Dutch Grand Prix (Zandvoort) のポールポジション予想は？
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Dutch Grand Prix の予想においてAIが考慮する要素は？
- George Russell's strong start and superior race pace on the C3 medium tires as observed in his Sprint win [1.2.1].. Lando Norris and McLaren struggling with higher tire wear over long runs at the high-energy Zandvoort banked corners..