第 6 站 · 6月7日 · MONTE CARLO

Monaco大奖赛Monte Carlo

Kimi ANTONELLI 杆位夺冠

2026 Monaco Grand Prix 比赛结果:Circuit de Monaco 站正赛全记录、领奖台、排位赛、最快单圈、进站与分段用时,以及我们的 AI 预测得分情况。日期:2026年6月7日。

预测结论

AI 预测命中。

结果AI 预测
  1. P1ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedesAntonelliKimi Antonelli已命中
  2. P2HAMILTONLewis HAMILTONFerrariVerstappenMax Verstappen未命中
  3. P3GASLYPierre GASLYAlpineLeclercCharles Leclerc未命中
准确率得分 58%
天气AI 预报干燥 · 气温 23°C · 赛道温度 41°C实际情况干燥 · 气温 23.7°C · 赛道温度 38°C
预测准确率

得分板。

预测准确率
预测 vs 实际
指标预测值实际值结果
差距2.4s6.27s
赛道状况drydry
温度23°24°
安全车yes (1)yes (2)
VSCyesno
红旗yesyes
完赛1915
预测判断
冠军
领奖台33%
前 1060%
车队
最快圈速
最快圈车队
冠军 + 最快圈
杆位夺冠
首次进站
末次进站
进站速度
车队预测30/44 次预测
对决9/11
趋势预测5/10
趣味预测0/3

轮到你了

下一站: United States GP

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关键时刻

Kimi Antonelli masters the Principality, storming to a maiden Monaco victory in a race of chaos and red flags.

  1. 第 1 圈Max Verstappen stalls on the grid and retires, while Antonelli holds the lead from pole.The early exit of the championship contender opened the door for Antonelli to dictate the race tempo from the front.
  2. 第 28 圈Lewis Hamilton pits for hard tires, initiating the tactical battle between the lead pack.This undercut attempt forced the field to react, tightening the gap between Hamilton and the chasing pack.
  3. 第 68 圈Race red-flagged due to track surface degradation at the final corner and a subsequent crash involving Charles Leclerc.The stoppage bunched the field, neutralized strategy gaps, and set up a chaotic sprint to the finish.
  4. 第 78 圈Kimi Antonelli takes the checkered flag, completing a dominant drive under intense pressure.The result solidified Antonelli's championship lead and cemented his status as a master of the Monaco circuit.
队友对决

车手对决。

车手比赛结果

Gasly qualified significantly higher (P9 vs P14) on a track where overtaking is notoriously difficult.

Alonso possesses superior race craft and consistency at Monaco, which is critical for defending or maintaining track position.

Hulkenberg's experience and P13 grid start give him a distinct advantage over the rookie Bortoleto on this street circuit.

Perez historically performs well on street circuits and starts ahead of Bottas on the grid.

Hamilton qualified higher (P3 vs P4) and, given the minimal overtaking opportunities, track position is the primary deciding factor.

Ocon has a better grid position (P17) and more experience managing a race in tight, congested conditions.

Piastri narrowly outperformed Norris in qualifying (P7 vs P8) and should maintain this marginal gap on race day.

Antonelli is on a dominant form streak, starting from Pole Position while his teammate starts down in P6.

Lawson qualified in the top 10 (P10) and has the race experience to defend his position against his rookie teammate.

Verstappen starts on the front row (P2) and consistently manages race pace better than his younger teammate.

Albon edged out Sainz in qualifying (P11 vs P12) and is well-positioned to capitalize on his superior starting slot.

比赛周末

  1. 赛事回放观看回放单圈排名、时间差与旗语
    AI预测

    最终预测。

    杆位预测

    Hamilton demonstrated the strongest single-lap pace during FP2, and Ferrari's chassis setup appears perfectly suited to the Monaco street circuit's high-downforce requirements. His experience in managing the tight, technical sectors gives him the edge in securing the top spot.

    天气预测DRY
    气温20°C
    赛道温度38°C
    降雨20%
    风速14 km/h
    赛道事件
    红旗
    yes
    冷门出局
    Fernando Alonso
    Q1 阶段出局: Aston Martin has struggled significantly with warm-up and single-lap pace throughout the weekend, making an early exit on this street circuit highly probable.
    快速数据
    杆位差距0.084
    更多预测
    Q1最快Charles Leclerc (0.210s)
    Q2最快Max Verstappen (0.120s)
    冠军车队Ferrari
    排位赛结果

    赛果回顾。

    #车手车队Q1Q2Q3
    P1
    ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLI
    Mercedes
    13.5991:13.599
    12.7041:12.704
    12.0511:12.051
    P2
    VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPEN
    Red Bull
    13.4901:13.490
    12.4991:12.499
    12.0941:12.094
    P3
    HAMILTONLewis HAMILTON
    Ferrari
    13.7771:13.777
    12.9341:12.934
    12.2791:12.279
    P4
    LECLERCCharles LECLERC
    Ferrari
    13.2931:13.293
    12.7741:12.774
    12.3511:12.351
    P5
    HADJARIsack HADJAR
    Red Bull
    14.4081:14.408
    12.7221:12.722
    12.4341:12.434
    P6
    RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELL
    Mercedes
    14.2141:14.214
    13.2381:13.238
    12.4451:12.445
    P7
    PIASTRIOscar PIASTRI
    McLaren
    14.1591:14.159
    12.9831:12.983
    12.6241:12.624
    P8
    NORRISLando NORRIS
    McLaren
    13.6301:13.630
    12.9191:12.919
    12.7651:12.765
    P9
    GASLYPierre GASLY
    Alpine F1 Team
    14.4691:14.469
    13.7621:13.762
    13.2261:13.226
    P10
    LAWSONLiam LAWSON
    RB F1 Team
    14.4981:14.498
    13.4711:13.471
    13.4121:13.412
    P11
    ALBONAlexander ALBON退赛 Q2
    Williams
    14.3211:14.321
    13.7871:13.787
    –
    P12
    SAINZCarlos SAINZ退赛 Q2
    Williams
    14.3481:14.348
    13.8151:13.815
    –
    P13
    HULKENBERGNico HULKENBERG退赛 Q2
    Audi
    13.9231:13.923
    13.9021:13.902
    –
    P14
    COLAPINTOFranco COLAPINTO退赛 Q2
    Alpine F1 Team
    14.5731:14.573
    13.9951:13.995
    –
    P15
    LINDBLADArvid LINDBLAD退赛 Q2
    RB F1 Team
    14.6851:14.685
    14.2481:14.248
    –
    P16
    BORTOLETOGabriel BORTOLETO退赛 Q1
    Audi
    14.6831:14.683
    –
    –
    P17
    OCONEsteban OCON退赛 Q1
    Haas F1 Team
    14.7221:14.722
    –
    –
    P18
    PEREZSergio PEREZ退赛 Q1
    Cadillac F1 Team
    14.7471:14.747
    –
    –
    P19
    BEARMANOliver BEARMAN退赛 Q1
    Haas F1 Team
    14.8141:14.814
    –
    –
    P20
    BOTTASValtteri BOTTAS退赛 Q1
    Cadillac F1 Team
    15.2831:15.283
    –
    –
    P21
    ALONSOFernando ALONSO退赛 Q1
    Aston Martin
    15.3491:15.349
    –
    –
    P22
    STROLLLance STROLL退赛 Q1
    Aston Martin
    16.0611:16.061
    –
    –
    天气干地
    气温23.7°C
    赛道温度38.5°C
    湿度55%
    风速0.9 km/h
    预测准确率

    得分板。

    预测准确率
    预测 vs 实际
    指标预测值实际值结果
    淘汰预测Q1Q1
    赛道状况drydry
    温度20°24°
    红旗yesyes
    预测判断
    杆位
    Q1 最快
    Q2 最快
    前 580%
    车队
    车队预测11/11 次预测
    对决5/11
    队友对决

    车手对决。

    车手比赛结果

    Gasly has consistently demonstrated superior pace across both practice sessions, handling the tight Monaco sector requirements better than Colapinto.

    Stroll has shown marginally better pace in practice; while both are struggling, Stroll seems more comfortable with the current car setup on this specific circuit.

    Hulkenberg has consistently outpaced his teammate throughout the weekend and brings the necessary qualifying experience for Monte Carlo.

    Perez has maintained presence in the top 20 times, whereas Bottas has struggled significantly with pace and visibility in the practice sessions.

    While Hamilton topped FP2, Leclerc's intrinsic ability to find single-lap pace at his home race makes him the narrow favorite for qualifying.

    Bearman showed impressive growth in FP2, securing a P10 while Ocon remained mired in the bottom half of the field.

    Norris suffered a significant drop-off in FP2 (P19), while Piastri displayed consistent top-10 speed, making him the safer bet for qualifying.

    Russell edged out Antonelli in FP2; his veteran experience in high-pressure qualifying sessions gives him a slight edge over the rookie.

    Lindblad has shown stronger practice pace, consistently staying ahead of Lawson across both sessions in Monaco.

    Verstappen is a dominant force on technical street circuits and significantly outperformed Hadjar in both practice sessions.

    Sainz has shown better progression with car setup throughout the weekend, edging ahead of Albon in the FP2 classification.

    AI排位赛分析

    赛后复盘。

    Kimi Antonelli cements his meteoric rise with a sensational pole position at the Monaco Grand Prix.
    Saturday in the Principality was a masterclass in high-stakes drama, culminating in a qualifying session that will be remembered for Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s stunning breakthrough. While Ferrari had looked ominous throughout the weekend, the narrative shifted during a frenetic Q1 session interrupted by a red flag caused by Gabriel Bortoleto’s impact with the barriers. The incident left the field scrambling, with Carlos Sainz performing a miracle to claw his way out of the danger zone, while the Haas duo failed to progress. As the session bled into Q3, the tension reached a fever pitch. Charles Leclerc initially looked poised to deliver for the home crowd, snatching provisional pole, but the Monegasque’s efforts were ultimately undone by a late-session error at Tabac. With Ferrari’s challenge faltering, the battle became a straight duel between the championship leader and the reigning champion. Max Verstappen laid down a formidable benchmark, momentarily looking set to deny the Mercedes driver, but Antonelli delivered a peerless final sector to steal the top spot by a razor-thin 0.043s margin.
    策略
    Qualifying at Monaco is always a game of tire warm-up and gap management. The track evolution was significant, with the rubbering-in of the circuit demanding drivers delay their final push laps until the absolute final seconds of each segment. The red flag in Q1 forced a tactical shift for teams, who had to abandon multi-lap building strategies in favor of 'do-or-die' outlaps. In Q3, the ability to generate heat in the tires without destroying them over the first two sectors proved the deciding factor in the 0.043s gap between the front row.
    关键时刻
    Q1
    Gabriel Bortoleto crashes in Q1
    A late-session red flag created a chaotic two-minute scramble to reach Q2, leaving little room for error and forcing title contenders to rush their final preparations.
    Q3
    Charles Leclerc hits the wall at Tabac
    After momentarily snatching provisional pole, the Monegasque driver clipped the barrier on his final flyer, ending his pole charge and dropping him to P4.
    Q3
    Antonelli's final flying lap
    In a display of nerves of steel, the Mercedes driver pipped Max Verstappen by just 0.043s to claim his maiden Monaco pole position.
    AI 车手之选
    Isack Hadjar
    Securing a top-five start in the Red Bull is a phenomenal result for the youngster, showcasing elite adaptability on a track that rarely forgives inexperience.
    AI 预测回顾
    Our prediction correctly anticipated the high probability of a red flag and the dry, stable conditions, but struggled to accurately forecast the competitive order at the front.
    命中: We correctly predicted the high-risk nature of the session, accurately anticipating the red flag that disrupted Q1.
    失误: We significantly underestimated Kimi Antonelli's single-lap pace, pinning our pole hopes on Lewis Hamilton, and predicted a much lower finishing position for the eventual pole-sitter.
  2. 赛事回放观看回放单圈排名、时间差与旗语
    AI预测

    最终预测。

    正赛后
    领奖台预测

    Antonelli has demonstrated superior qualifying pace and is currently on a dominant winning streak, which is crucial at a circuit where track position is paramount. Starting from pole, he is well-positioned to manage the race tempo and defend against the tighter street layout.

    天气预测DRY
    气温23°C
    赛道温度41°C
    降雨12%
    风速12 km/h
    赛道事件
    安全车
    ×1yes
    VSC
    ×2yes
    红旗
    yes
    观赛看点
    ◆
    Pole position is decisive on the tight street circuit of Monte Carlo
    ◆
    High probability of race neutralization requiring smart safety car pit strategy
    ◆
    Tire management on the soft compound to avoid the one-stop traffic jam
    爆冷潜力
    Charles Leclerc
    Leclerc could leverage his local knowledge and aggressive starts to jump a front-runner early, forcing a strategic defensive drive to claim a historic home victory.
    快速数据
    获胜优势2.4
    完赛排名19
    更多预测
    最快圈速Lewis Hamilton
    冠军车队Mercedes
    最快圈车队Ferrari
    进站策略
    最先进站Esteban Ocon
    最后进站Kimi Antonelli
    最快进站Red Bull Racing
    预测分析
    盘口
    概率
    预测
    Will Sergio Perez be classified as a DNF?
    41%
    否
    Will Lance Stroll be classified as a DNF?
    36%
    否
    Will the race winner be the driver who starts on Pole Position?
    66%
    是
    Will there be a Lap 1 incident resulting in a yellow flag or retirement?
    58%
    是
    Will there be more than one Safety Car deployment during the race?
    43%
    否
    Will the eventual race winner also set the Fastest Lap of the race?
    27%
    否
    Will there be a change in the race leader during the final 10 laps?
    18%
    否
    Will the WDC points gap between P1 (Kimi Antonelli) and P2 shrink this weekend?
    39%
    否
    Will a driver from a team outside the top 3 constructors (Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull) finish on the podium?
    24%
    否
    Will the pole sitter lead every single lap of the race?
    14%
    否
    趣味预测
    类别
    投注
    概率
    选择
    赛道动物
    Will a seagull be caught on the broadcast cameras perching on the track barriers during the race?
    65%
    是 ✗
    转播
    Will the broadcast show Prince Albert II looking visibly stressed during a tight overtake at the Loews Hairpin?
    55%
    是 ✗
    混乱事件
    Will at least one driver 'kiss' the barrier at the Swimming Pool chicane without triggering a red flag?
    80%
    是 ✗
    AI正赛分析

    赛后复盘。

    Kimi Antonelli masters the Principality, storming to a maiden Monaco victory in a race of chaos and red flags.
    The 2026 Monaco Grand Prix will be remembered as a masterclass from Kimi Antonelli, who navigated a fractured and high-stakes afternoon to secure his fifth win of the season. The race was defined early by the shock retirement of Max Verstappen, who stalled at the start and never rejoined, leaving the path clear for the Mercedes prodigy. While Antonelli managed the gap with surgical precision, the race behind him descended into tactical warfare. The narrative shifted significantly in the final quarter when the track surface at the final corner began to break up, leading to a race-altering red flag on lap 68. The incident, which ended Charles Leclerc’s hopes of a podium, forced the field into a sprint finish following the restart. While George Russell’s race unraveled through a series of pit lane penalties and navigational errors, Lewis Hamilton kept the pressure on his successor, ultimately securing second place for Ferrari. It was a day where experience fought youth, but it was Antonelli who stood tallest amidst the chaos.
    策略
    The race was a game of tire conservation and tactical reaction. The primary battleground was the pit lane, with the early switch to hard tires for the frontrunners proving to be the right call to manage degradation. However, the late red flag completely reset the strategic landscape, effectively handing a 'free' tire change to those who had managed their equipment best. The crucial delta was the management of the restart phase. Teams that had preserved a set of soft tires for a potential dash were rewarded, while those—like Russell—who fell foul of pit lane regulations and penalties, saw their strategic flexibility completely evaporate. Antonelli’s team managed the transitions perfectly, ensuring he never left himself vulnerable to an undercut.
    关键时刻
    第 1 圈
    Max Verstappen stalls on the grid and retires, while Antonelli holds the lead from pole.
    The early exit of the championship contender opened the door for Antonelli to dictate the race tempo from the front.
    第 28 圈
    Lewis Hamilton pits for hard tires, initiating the tactical battle between the lead pack.
    This undercut attempt forced the field to react, tightening the gap between Hamilton and the chasing pack.
    第 68 圈
    Race red-flagged due to track surface degradation at the final corner and a subsequent crash involving Charles Leclerc.
    The stoppage bunched the field, neutralized strategy gaps, and set up a chaotic sprint to the finish.
    第 78 圈
    Kimi Antonelli takes the checkered flag, completing a dominant drive under intense pressure.
    The result solidified Antonelli's championship lead and cemented his status as a master of the Monaco circuit.
    当日最佳车手
    Kimi Antonelli
    Fans voted for Antonelli for his flawless management of the race from lights-out to checkered flag, keeping cool despite multiple safety car interventions and a late red flag.
    AI 车手之选
    Isack Hadjar
    Hadjar drove an exceptionally composed race to secure a podium finish, capitalizing on the chaos around him to prove he belongs in the front-running mix.
    AI 预测回顾
    Our prediction performance was moderate at 0.62, correctly identifying the winner and the safety car, but failing to account for the red-flag incident.
    命中: We correctly identified Kimi Antonelli as the race winner, correctly citing his superior qualifying pace and starting position as the deciding factor.
    失误: We incorrectly predicted a podium finish for Charles Leclerc and predicted a race distance without a red flag; the track surface issues completely upended our expected finishing order.

练习赛

  • 第一次练习赛最快圈速: Charles LECLERCAI 预测失误
  • 第二次练习赛最快圈速: Lewis HAMILTONAI 预测失误
  • 第三次练习赛最快圈速: Kimi ANTONELLIAI 预测正确

自由练习赛 1

AI预测

最终预测。

最快圈预测

Coming off three consecutive race wins, Antonelli is exhibiting supreme confidence and pace, and his ability to quickly adapt to the technical demands of the Monaco circuit makes him the clear favorite to top the first practice session.

天气预测DRY
气温24°C
赛道温度38°C
降雨3%
风速13 km/h
更多预测
最快车队Mercedes
胜差0.352sec
预测准确率

得分板。

预测准确率
预测 vs 实际
指标预测值实际值结果
差距0.35s0.23s
赛道状况drydry
温度24°24°
预测判断
最快
前 580%
车队
对决7/11
队友对决

车手对决。

车手比赛结果

Gasly's superior experience on technical street circuits allows him to build rhythm faster in the opening session than the rookie Colapinto.

Alonso is a master of the Monaco circuit and will be significantly quicker to find the limits of the track than Stroll in FP1.

Hulkenberg's veteran experience is invaluable at Monaco for navigating tight sections early in the weekend compared to the rookie Bortoleto.

Perez is currently struggling with form and confidence, giving Bottas the edge to execute a cleaner, faster FP1 session.

Leclerc is historically exceptional in Monaco and will likely dial in his setup quicker than Hamilton for this specific home-race venue.

Ocon's experience in managing race weekends gives him a slight advantage in FP1 pace over Bearman.

Norris typically demonstrates superior raw one-lap pace, which is the primary objective during the initial phases of FP1.

Antonelli is currently in peak form with three consecutive race wins and topped FP1 in Canada, showing he is the driver to beat.

Lawson has a better grasp of race weekends and track positioning, which is crucial for building speed at Monaco compared to the rookie Lindblad.

Verstappen is the benchmark for high-downforce, technical street circuits and will almost certainly be faster than his less-experienced teammate.

Sainz's precise driving style is well-suited to the demands of Monaco, allowing him to push earlier than Albon.

AI FP1分析

赛后复盘。

Charles Leclerc lays down a statement of intent on home soil as Ferrari tops a congested FP1 in Monte Carlo.
The 2026 Monaco Grand Prix weekend got off to a flying start as Charles Leclerc reminded the field exactly why he is a force to be reckoned with at home, topping the timesheets with a blistering 1:13.978. While the early phase of the session was dedicated to data gathering—with plenty of aero rakes spotted across the pit lane—the focus quickly shifted to qualifying simulations as teams hunted for track position. The Ferrari driver looked incredibly planted, finding rhythm through the technical sectors that the rest of the field struggled to match consistently. Mercedes appears to be the primary threat to Ferrari this weekend, with Lewis Hamilton slotting into P2, though the real surprise was the confidence shown by Kimi Antonelli. Finishing P4 in his first-ever Monaco practice session is a significant achievement, outpacing his more experienced teammate George Russell. Meanwhile, Max Verstappen took P3 for Red Bull Racing; while he isn't quite at the top, the team is clearly prioritizing balance over raw lap time, with the RB23 looking stable despite the inherent struggles of navigating the Principality's tight confines.
策略
The data from FP1 suggests a high-degradation scenario on the soft compounds, meaning qualifying will be the paramount focus for the entire grid. While we saw plenty of long-run attempts, the 'Monaco Train' effect is already evident; track position will be absolute gold, and teams are already shifting their setup focus to prioritize low-speed traction and corner exit over outright top speed. Track evolution was significant, with lap times dropping rapidly. Teams that prioritized finding a stable platform that allows the driver to attack the curbs—like Ferrari and Mercedes—will hold the advantage. Expect a heavy emphasis on tire preservation during Saturday's final practice, as finding the 'sweet spot' for the tire warmup in qualifying will likely decide the front row.
关键时刻
RUN1
Initial setup verification and aerodynamic rake testing
Teams focused on verifying correlation between the wind tunnel and the unique, high-downforce demands of the street circuit.
RUN2
Charles Leclerc sets the 1:13.978 benchmark
The Monegasque driver signals his intent early, showing immediate comfort and pace on home turf.
RUN3
Rookie Kimi Antonelli slots into P4
A standout performance for the young Mercedes driver, demonstrating the maturity required for the narrow streets on his first outing.
RUN4
Accelerated track evolution and near-misses
As the surface rubbered in, traffic management became the primary challenge, with several drivers flirting with the barriers at the Swimming Pool.
AI 车手之选
Kimi Antonelli
To be P4 on his first-ever Monaco outing, while keeping the car off the walls, is a testament to his exceptional talent and maturity.
AI 预测回顾
We were slightly optimistic regarding a Mercedes 1-2 sweep in FP1, as Ferrari has arrived with a more aggressive pace than anticipated.
命中: We correctly identified Kimi Antonelli as a major contender, and his P4 result proves he is a genuine threat this weekend.
失误: We underestimated the pure one-lap pace of Charles Leclerc and Ferrari, who have clearly prioritized an aggressive setup for the opening practice.

自由练习赛 2

AI预测

最终预测。

最快圈预测

Coming off three consecutive victories, the championship leader carries unmatched momentum into the technical streets of Monaco, where his precision is currently setting the benchmark.

天气预测DRY
气温23°C
赛道温度39°C
降雨8%
风速12 km/h
更多预测
最快车队Mercedes
胜差0.280sec
预测准确率

得分板。

预测准确率
预测 vs 实际
指标预测值实际值结果
差距0.28s0.11s
赛道状况drydry
温度23°23°
预测判断
最快
前 580%
车队
对决7/11
队友对决

车手对决。

车手比赛结果

Gasly's superior experience on technical street circuits like Monaco will help him find a rhythm earlier in the practice session than his teammate.

Alonso is a master of extracting lap time on tight, unforgiving circuits, and his precision is vital during FP2 setup runs.

Hulkenberg possesses the raw one-lap pace necessary for Monaco and typically outperforms rookies in the early stages of a race weekend.

Despite his struggles recently, Perez is historically a strong street-circuit performer and needs to build confidence in FP2 to secure his seat.

Leclerc will be pushing hard on his home circuit, and his unique ability to attack the curbs at Monaco gives him the edge in practice simulations.

Ocon’s experience in managing complex street track telemetry will prove more reliable than Bearman's, who will be focused on learning the limits.

Piastri's smooth and methodical driving style often translates well to Monaco, while Norris will be looking to regain momentum after a difficult Canadian GP.

Antonelli is riding an incredible wave of form and confidence, which is the most critical factor when building pace around the walls of Monte Carlo.

Lawson has more F1 track time under his belt, which is crucial for maximizing the limited windows available in FP2.

Verstappen’s aggression and car control are perfectly suited to Monaco, and he will look to assert dominance immediately in practice.

Sainz is a highly technical driver who excels at circuit management and rhythm, giving him an advantage over Albon on this tight track.

AI FP2分析

赛后复盘。

Hamilton surges to the top in Monte Carlo as Ferrari dominance leaves rivals scrambling
Friday in the Principality was a statement of intent from Ferrari, with Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc monopolizing the top two spots in FP2. Hamilton’s 1:13.026 benchmark highlighted the SF-26's prowess in low-speed traction—a vital commodity for the tight confines of Monaco. While the team looks dominant, the gap to Max Verstappen in third remains razor-thin, keeping Red Bull firmly in the hunt for Saturday's pole position battle. Mercedes showed steady progression with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli finishing fourth and fifth, though both noted the car remains a handful over the bumps. Down the order, the narrative was defined by frustration rather than pace. Lando Norris, a pre-weekend favorite, saw his session severely curtailed by a mechanical issue, leaving McLaren with a massive data deficit heading into final practice. Similarly, Sergio Perez’s smoky exit served as a stark reminder of Monaco’s unforgiving nature, with fire damage putting the Cadillac garage on high alert. With track evolution accelerating rapidly, the field is tightening up, but Ferrari currently holds the ace in this high-stakes game of street-circuit chess.
策略
FP2 data confirms that tire degradation is remarkably low, which will push teams toward a aggressive one-stop strategy. The track evolution between sessions was significant, meaning the grip levels will continue to spike through FP3 and Qualifying. Teams are heavily prioritizing the Soft compound for qualifying simulations, but with the high probability of a safety car intervention, long-run fuel loads were compromised today. Those who can balance single-lap pace with a car that doesn't 'bottom out' through the tunnel will hold the advantage on Sunday.
关键时刻
RUN1
Lewis Hamilton sets the pace
Ferrari's upgrade package proves effective on street circuits, with Hamilton finding the confidence to push into the 1:13s early.
RUN2
Lando Norris stops on track
A significant reliability issue for McLaren at the Nouvelle Chicane cost the reigning champion critical track time, leaving him P19 and on the back foot.
RUN3
Sergio Perez technical failure
A smoking Cadillac forced a Virtual Safety Car (VSC) and eventual early end to the session, disrupting long-run simulations for the entire field.
RUN4
Isack Hadjar returns
After his FP1 crash, the Red Bull junior successfully rejoined the session, proving the team's mechanics can recover quickly from heavy impacts.
AI 车手之选
Charles Leclerc
Despite being eclipsed by his teammate, Leclerc's consistency across both sessions suggests he is the most comfortable driver on the grid, perfectly poised for a home-soil qualifying masterclass.
AI 预测回顾
We correctly identified Mercedes' pace and Ferrari's strength, but underestimated Lewis Hamilton's personal performance while over-relying on Kimi Antonelli's recent momentum.
命中: We correctly predicted that Mercedes would maintain a top-5 presence for both cars, accurately gauging their technical suitability for this circuit.
失误: We failed to predict the reliability issues plaguing Lando Norris and Sergio Perez, which completely derailed the mid-field order compared to our finishing-order projection.

自由练习赛 3

AI预测

最终预测。

最快圈预测

Antonelli arrives in Monaco with unmatched momentum after three consecutive wins, demonstrating superior car control and confidence on this high-precision street circuit.

天气预测DRY
气温24°C
赛道温度38°C
降雨1%
风速13 km/h
更多预测
最快车队Mercedes
胜差0.190sec
预测准确率

得分板。

预测准确率
预测 vs 实际
指标预测值实际值结果
差距0.19s0.33s
赛道状况drydry
温度24°23°
预测判断
最快
前 560%
车队
对决9/11
队友对决

车手对决。

车手比赛结果

While Colapinto is showing strong race pace, Gasly’s experience on the narrow streets of Monaco gives him the edge in establishing a rhythm during the critical FP3 setup session.

Alonso is a master of street circuits and extracting maximum pace from the car in one-lap qualifying simulations, far outpacing Stroll's consistency.

Hulkenberg’s qualifying prowess is well-documented, and he is better equipped to handle the high-risk, high-reward nature of Monaco's qualifying simulations in FP3.

Perez is historically one of the strongest drivers on street circuits and will be pushing hard to recover confidence after a difficult outing in Canada.

Leclerc is incredibly fast at his home Grand Prix; his ability to find the limit on these specific streets usually results in him dominating practice sessions.

Ocon’s experience in the midfield helps him navigate the tight, twisty Monaco sectors more effectively than the rookie Bearman during final practice.

Norris needs a strong weekend to regain momentum after his DNF in Canada and will likely prioritize a cleaner, faster FP3 to set the tone for qualifying.

Antonelli is in the form of his life, winning three consecutive races; his current confidence level makes him the favorite to edge out Russell even in practice.

Lawson possesses significantly more F1 machinery experience, which is vital for building confidence and speed safely on the tight Monaco layout.

Verstappen’s setup ability and raw pace are vastly superior to the rookie Hadjar, especially at a technical circuit like Monaco where car placement is everything.

Sainz is exceptionally technical and excels at street circuits; he typically manages the tire warm-up and gap-finding in FP3 better than Albon.

AI FP3分析

赛后复盘。

Kimi Antonelli stuns with Mercedes resurgence as Ferrari battles brake woes in final Monaco practice.
Mercedes has officially disrupted the Ferrari narrative at the Monaco Grand Prix. After a dominant Friday for the Scuderia, Kimi Antonelli roared to the top of the timesheets in FP3, dipping under the 73-second barrier with a 1:12.720. This lap suggests that Mercedes has found the critical setup window that eluded them yesterday, turning the qualifying battle into a three-way fight between Antonelli and the Ferrari duo. While Ferrari maintains strong single-lap potential, both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton were audibly frustrated with brake performance throughout the hour. This is a troubling development for the Prancing Horse; if the team cannot resolve these temperature and modulation issues, it could compromise not only their qualifying precision but also their ability to defend against the charging Mercedes on race day. Elsewhere, McLaren struggled to find their footing, with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris unable to challenge the top five, while Oliver Bearman's crash at Massenet added a chaotic, red-flagged dimension to the final preparations.
策略
The data from FP3 underscores that track position will be the primary currency this weekend. The traffic issues witnessed in this session suggest that qualifying will be a chaotic affair, with drivers struggling to generate tire temperature while dodging slower cars. Ferrari’s brake issues must be the priority; if they cannot mitigate the heat soak, they risk an inconsistent race pace that could see them vulnerable to the Mercedes duo. Tire degradation appeared manageable for most, but the soft compound's window is extremely narrow. We expect a strategic focus on clean air and undercut potential, as the tight confines of Monaco make overtaking a rarity, placing a massive premium on the grid spots secured this afternoon.
关键时刻
RUN1
Early traffic and track evolution.
Drivers struggled to find clear air throughout the session, which will be a critical factor in the upcoming qualifying shootout.
RUN2
Ferrari reports ongoing brake concerns.
Both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton voiced frustrations regarding braking performance, potentially jeopardizing their long-run stability for the race.
RUN3
Oliver Bearman hits the barriers at Massenet.
The incident triggered a red flag, halting progress and disrupting the final qualifying simulations for the rest of the field.
RUN4
Kimi Antonelli sets the fastest lap (1:12.720).
Mercedes unlocked significant pace overnight, signaling a serious threat to Ferrari's dominance on the streets of Monte Carlo.
AI 车手之选
Kimi Antonelli
His ability to outperform established leaders like Leclerc and Hamilton on the tightest track of the year demonstrates remarkable maturity and car control.
AI 预测回顾
Our podium candidates—Hamilton, Antonelli, and Leclerc—are clearly the fastest drivers, but the order is far more volatile than anticipated.
命中: We correctly identified that the podium fight would be locked between Ferrari and Mercedes, with all three of our predicted top drivers currently sitting in the top 3.
失误: We underestimated Kimi Antonelli's raw pace, placing him P2 in our predictions while he is currently outperforming our P1 pick, Lewis Hamilton.
常见问题

Monaco Grand Prix 预测常见问题

谁被预测将赢得 2026 Monaco Grand Prix (Monte Carlo)?
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
2026 Monaco Grand Prix (Monte Carlo) 的领奖台预测是什么?
P1: Kimi Antonelli。P2: Max Verstappen。P3: Charles Leclerc。
谁被预测将夺得 2026 Monaco Grand Prix (Monte Carlo) 的杆位?
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
AI 在进行 Monaco Grand Prix 预测时权衡哪些因素?
Pole position is decisive on the tight street circuit of Monte Carlo. High probability of race neutralization requiring smart safety car pit strategy.
方法论这些预测是如何做出的:数据、信号以及锁定的公开记录。阅读方法论
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