ETAPA 13 · 4 DE SET. · MONZA

ItalianGrande Prêmio

PRÓXIMO
00Dias
00Hrs
00Min
00Seg

CORRIDA

domingo, 6 de set. · 13:00 UTC
PREVISÕES IA

O palpite.

PERSPECTIVA
PÓDIO PREVISTO

Kimi Antonelli leads the championship standings and has demonstrated superior consistency and pace throughout the season. Mercedes' strong race performance, combined with Antonelli's current form, makes them the favorite for the victory at the power-sensitive Monza circuit.

PREVISÃO DO TEMPODRY
26°Car41°Cpista15%12 km/h
Safety Car×1yes
VSC×1yes
Red Flagno
O QUE OBSERVAR
High-speed nature of Monza favoring Mercedes and McLaren power units
Tire strategy optimization for one-stop scenarios
High likelihood of safety car intervention in the opening chicane
POTENCIAL DE SURPRESA
Lewis Hamilton
Hamilton utilizes his home-crowd knowledge and Ferrari's strong straight-line speed to challenge for a surprise home victory if a late safety car bunches the field.
ESTATÍSTICAS RÁPIDAS
MARGEM DO VENCEDOR3.8
CLASSIFICADO18
VOLTA MAIS RÁPIDACharles Leclerc
CONSTRUTOR VENCEDORMercedes
CONSTRUTOR VMRFerrari
Primeiro no PitAlexander Albon
Último no PitKimi Antonelli
Pit Stop mais RápidoMcLaren
A PREVISÃO
PROP
PROB
PALPITE
Will the WDC points gap between Kimi Antonelli and Lewis Hamilton shrink by more than 5 points?
74%
SIM
Will Max Verstappen record a DNF?
18%
NÃO
Will more than 3 drivers incur grid penalties for power unit component changes?
82%
SIM
Will there be a lead change in the final 10 laps?
68%
SIM
Will the pole sitter win the race?
46%
NÃO
Will there be more than 1 full Safety Car deployment during the race?
22%
NÃO
Will the race winner set the Fastest Lap?
38%
NÃO
Will a driver from outside the top 3 constructors (Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren) finish on the podium?
34%
NÃO
PREVISÕES DA TEMPORADA
VER TUDO →
WDC Decided Early
92%6
Leclerc Top 3 WDC
88%23
Ferrari Top 3 WCC
98%6
Mercedes WCC
98%
Atualizado após a Etapa 12 · 18 previsões ativas
PALPITES DIVERTIDOS
CAT
APOSTA
PROB
PALPITE
CAOS
Will a driver be forced to take the 'escape road' bollard slalom at the Variante del Rettifilo during the opening lap?
85%
SIM
TRANSMISSÃO
Will the international broadcast feed cut to a fan eating a slice of pizza in the grandstands within the final 10 laps?
35%
SIM
CULTURA
Will the Tifosi storm the pit straight immediately after the chequered flag, forcing an unofficial 'track walk' before the cars have fully returned to parc fermé?
75%
SIM
DUELOS ENTRE COMPANHEIROS

Duelo direto.

Gasly's superior season H2H record and experience on high-speed circuits like Monza give him the edge over the rookie Colapinto.

Alonso consistently outperforms Stroll, and given the systematic bias showing Stroll is significantly over-rated in predictive models, Alonso is the clear favorite.

While Hulkenberg is prone to over-prediction in models, his seasoned experience at Monza is critical for navigating tight chicanes compared to his teammate.

Both drivers are heavily over-rated in season models, but Perez holds a superior H2H qualifying record and generally stronger race-day management.

Hamilton’s consistency in championship standings and current weighted form trend edges out Leclerc in a high-pressure home race for Ferrari.

Bearman has demonstrated significantly better qualifying pace and recent upward momentum compared to Ocon throughout the season.

Norris is currently a championship protagonist with higher weighted points per event, giving him the strategic priority and consistency needed for a win.

Antonelli leads the championship standings and has shown superior form in recent rounds, maintaining a slight edge over his teammate.

Lawson is on an upward form trend and provides more consistent race-pace results compared to Lindblad's flatter performance profile.

Despite a difficult season, Verstappen's pedigree and aggressive driving style remain well-suited for the high-speed requirements of Monza.

Sainz holds a dominant 9-1 qualifying head-to-head advantage and consistently higher race-day performance metrics than Albon.

QUALIFICAÇÃO

sábado, 5 de set. · 14:00 UTC
PREVISÕES IA

O palpite.

POLE PREVISTA

Norris currently leads the Season Form Index and has demonstrated superior single-lap pace in recent high-speed sectors. His McLaren package is well-suited to the low-drag requirements of Monza, allowing him to edge out the Mercedes pair.

PREVISÃO DO TEMPODRY
22°Car38°Cpista15%15 km/h
Red Flagyes
ELIMINAÇÃO SURPRESA
Charles Leclerc
Fora no Q2 — Despite strong Ferrari pace, Leclerc often faces traffic issues at Monza, and a mistimed slipstream run or yellow flag in a tight Q2 session could see him narrowly miss the top 10 cut.
ESTATÍSTICAS RÁPIDAS
MARGEM DA POLE0.082
MAIS RÁPIDO Q1Kimi Antonelli (0.120s)
MAIS RÁPIDO Q2Lando Norris (0.090s)
CONSTRUTOR VENCEDORMcLaren
DUELOS ENTRE COMPANHEIROS

Duelo direto.

Gasly holds a superior 7-3 head-to-head qualifying record this season and demonstrates better consistency in single-lap pace compared to Colapinto.

Alonso's 8-2 qualifying record reflects his superior ability to extract maximum performance from the car over one lap compared to Stroll.

While historically a strong qualifier, Hulkenberg faces a tight battle here; I am correcting for my tendency to over-rate him, but his one-lap experience still gives him a slight edge.

Despite my tendency to over-rate both drivers, Perez maintains a better aggregate head-to-head record and shows more reliability in qualifying sessions.

Monza's high-speed, technical nature historically favors Leclerc's aggressive driving style, and he maintains a razor-thin qualifying edge over Hamilton this season.

Bearman has demonstrated a consistent advantage in qualifying throughout the season, holding a dominant 8-3 record over Ocon.

Norris is in excellent form fighting for the championship and holds a significant 7-4 qualifying advantage over Piastri.

Antonelli leads the championship and has consistently out-qualified Russell, proving his single-lap pace is superior in the current Mercedes package.

Lawson has the experience edge and holds a 6-5 aggregate lead; I am correcting for my tendency to under-rate Lawson, increasing his probability of success.

Verstappen remains the clear benchmark at Red Bull, maintaining a solid 7-2 qualifying record over his teammate.

Sainz has been dominant in this pairing with a 9-1 head-to-head record, showing significantly stronger qualifying pace.

TREINO LIVRE 3

sábado, 5 de set. · 10:30 UTC
PREVISÕES IA

O palpite.

MAIS RÁPIDO PREVISTO

Russell excels in high-speed, low-downforce setups typical of Monza and has demonstrated strong single-lap pace throughout the 2026 season.

PREVISÃO DO TEMPODRY
24°Car39°Cpista12%12 km/h
CONSTRUTOR MAIS RÁPIDOMercedes
MARGEM DE VITÓRIA0.280sec
DUELOS ENTRE COMPANHEIROS

Duelo direto.

Gasly consistently demonstrates higher single-lap pace and stronger adaptation to high-speed circuits compared to Colapinto.

Alonso maintains a significant performance advantage and superior qualifying record over Stroll throughout the 2026 season.

Hulkenberg's vast experience in finding qualifying speed on power-sensitive tracks gives him a slight edge in FP3, despite Bortoleto's competitive season.

Perez holds a stronger head-to-head qualifying record and typically extracts more pace on low-downforce setups.

While Leclerc is exceptionally fast, Hamilton's championship-level experience and precision at power-heavy circuits give him a slight edge in final preparation.

Bearman has consistently outperformed Ocon in qualifying simulations throughout the season, establishing a clear pace advantage.

Norris, the reigning champion, is highly optimized for qualifying sessions and consistently sets the benchmark for the team.

With Antonelli confirmed to be focusing on a race-spec setup due to his upcoming grid penalty, Russell will likely prioritize pure qualifying pace in FP3.

Lawson's superior consistency and experience relative to Lindblad make him the likely candidate to lead the team's FP3 pace.

Verstappen remains the undisputed team leader with a dominant qualifying advantage over his teammate.

Sainz has maintained a clear pace superiority over Albon throughout the season, particularly in optimizing low-drag configurations.

TREINO LIVRE 2

sexta-feira, 4 de set. · 14:00 UTC
PREVISÕES IA

O palpite.

MAIS RÁPIDO PREVISTO

Kimi Antonelli has shown exceptional performance throughout the season, leading the championship, and Mercedes has demonstrated a strong advantage on permanent circuits, making him the favorite for the fastest time in FP2.

PREVISÃO DO TEMPODRY
24°Car39°Cpista12%12 km/h
CONSTRUTOR MAIS RÁPIDOMercedes
MARGEM DE VITÓRIA0.283sec
DUELOS ENTRE COMPANHEIROS

Duelo direto.

Gasly consistently outperforms Colapinto in qualifying-trim sessions and holds a 7-3 head-to-head advantage; he is well-suited to the high-speed demands of Monza.

Alonso's experience and consistent H2H record of 8-2 against Stroll suggest he will extract more performance from the car in a technical session like FP2.

While the H2H is close, historical bias suggests I tend to overrate Hulkenberg's single-lap pace relative to his teammate; Bortoleto's improving trend makes him a value pick here.

Despite my tendency to overrate Perez, he holds a 6-4 head-to-head edge over Bottas and generally shows better pace in mixed-session FP2 programs.

Leclerc has a slight H2H advantage this season and often excels at finding aggressive, high-speed limits at circuits like Monza.

Bearman has demonstrated a significant pace advantage in qualifying trims, holding an 8-3 record against Ocon.

Norris is in superior championship form and historically stronger in balancing the car's setup for both low-fuel sprints and race-pace simulations.

Antonelli leads the championship and has consistently edged out Russell in recent qualifying sessions, suggesting he will top the timesheets in FP2.

Lawson holds a 6-4 H2H advantage and my system tends to underestimate his pace, making him the likely favorite for this session.

Verstappen remains the lead driver for Red Bull with a 7-2 record, and his ability to adapt to low-downforce setups is superior to the rookie Hadjar.

Sainz has dominated the H2H 9-1 and is consistently faster; correcting for my bias against underrating him reinforces this choice.

TREINO LIVRE 1

sexta-feira, 4 de set. · 10:30 UTC
PREVISÕES IA

O palpite.

MAIS RÁPIDO PREVISTO

As the championship leader with dominant Mercedes form, Antonelli is expected to capitalize on his momentum and the team's strong setup efficiency to set the pace in the opening session at Monza.

PREVISÃO DO TEMPODRY
22°Car38°Cpista12%15 km/h
CONSTRUTOR MAIS RÁPIDOMercedes
MARGEM DE VITÓRIA0.380sec
DUELOS ENTRE COMPANHEIROS

Duelo direto.

Gasly holds a dominant 7-3 qualifying head-to-head advantage and consistently demonstrates better one-lap pace, which I have historically under-rated.

Alonso leads the head-to-head 8-2 and possesses the experience to extract maximum speed at a technical, high-speed circuit like Monza.

While the head-to-head is close, I historically over-rate Hulkenberg; shifting focus to the younger Bortoleto for this session's adjustment.

Despite my tendency to over-rate both drivers, Perez maintains a slightly superior 6-4 qualifying record and generally shows better adaptability.

Hamilton's championship positioning and Ferrari's strong performance at permanent circuits give him a slight edge in initial FP1 setup finding.

Bearman has established an 8-3 qualifying superiority over Ocon, showing better raw pace that translates well to FP1 run plans.

Norris leads the teammate battle 7-4 and has been the more consistent performer in single-lap pace throughout the season.

Antonelli has been in phenomenal form, leading the championship and holding a 7-4 head-to-head record over Russell.

I have historically under-rated Lawson, who holds a 6-4 qualifying head-to-head record and brings vital experience to the high-speed Monza layout.

Verstappen’s 7-2 head-to-head record and immense experience provide a significant advantage in rapidly dialing in car setup for FP1.

Sainz has dominated the H2H 9-1; combined with my tendency to over-rate Albon, Sainz is the clear analytical choice.

MetodologiaComo estas previsões são feitas — dados, sinais e um registro público imutável.Ler a metodologia