ROUND 18 · OCT 25 · AUSTIN

United StatesGrand PrixAustin

Next: Practice 3SAT 17:30 UTC

The model's calls for every session at Austin: practice is free, qualifying and the race are Pro.

Just in · Practice 2

The AI missed the fastest driver.

ResultAI's call
  1. P1LECLERCCharles LECLERCFerrariVerstappenMax VerstappenMissed
  2. P2ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedesAntonelliKimi AntonelliCalled
  3. P3VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull RacingRussellGeorge RussellMissed
Accuracy score 47%
WeatherAI forecastDry · Air 29°C · Track 49°CActualDry · Air 29.6°C · Track 40.5°C
PREDICTION ACCURACY

The scorecard.

PREDICTION ACCURACY
PRED VS ACTUAL
METRICPREDICTEDACTUALRESULT
MARGIN0.18s0.04s
CONDITIONSdrydry
TEMPERATURE29°30°
CALLS
FASTEST
TOP 580%
CONSTRUCTOR
H2H11/11

The AI's call · Qualifying

AI PREDICTIONS

The call.

PREDICTED POLE
P1Mercedes
63%
P2Ferrari
41%
P3Red Bull Racing
37%

The AI has called it

Who's in the Mercedes on pole?

Everyone else sees this call after the chequered flag, when it can't change a thing. See it before qualifying starts.

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PREDICTED WEATHERDRY
air29°C
track41°C
rain7%
wind12 km/h
Race Incidents
Red Flag
no
#DRIVERTEAMCONFCONFIDENCE
P4
31%
P5
27%
P6
24%
P7
22%
P8
19%
P9
18%
P10
16%
SURPRISE ELIMINATION
Carlos Sainz
Out in Q1
QUICK STATS
POLE MARGIN0.074
More Predictions
Q1 FASTEST0.118s
Q2 FASTEST0.086s
WINNING CONSTRUCTORMercedes

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The weekend

  1. AI PREDICTIONS

    The call.

    PREDICTED FASTEST

    Russell typically dials in baseline mechanical balance quickly in opening practice sessions, and Mercedes' aerodynamic efficiency through COTA's rapid first-sector changes of direction gives him an immediate edge on soft-tire baseline runs.

    PREDICTED WEATHERDRY
    air26°C
    track38°C
    rain12%
    wind14 km/h
    More Predictions
    FASTEST CONSTRUCTORMercedes
    VICTORY MARGIN0.342sec
    PREDICTION ACCURACY

    The scorecard.

    PREDICTION ACCURACY
    PRED VS ACTUAL
    METRICPREDICTEDACTUALRESULT
    MARGIN0.34s0.08s
    CONDITIONSdrydry
    TEMPERATURE26°28°
    CALLS
    FASTEST
    TOP 580%
    CONSTRUCTOR
    H2H7/11
    TEAMMATE BATTLES

    Head-to-head.

    DRIVERRESULT

    Russell topped the timesheets in Singapore FP1 and his extensive COTA experience gives him a clear advantage in initial setup work over Antonelli, who faces a steep learning curve around Austin's blind crests.

    Hamilton is a five-time winner at COTA with unmatched affinity for the circuit's sweeping layout, giving him the edge to hit the ground running faster in Friday morning's practice.

    Coming off a dominant clean sweep in Singapore, Verstappen's confidence and mastery of the high-speed Turn 3–6 sequence will ensure a significant pace cushion over Hadjar.

    Norris holds an 11–6 qualifying head-to-head edge over Piastri and routinely extracts optimal single-lap performance faster when evaluating new aerodynamic components in FP1.

    Lawson carries strong momentum into Austin with a rising form curve, and his prior experience on this technical layout gives him the upper hand over rookie Lindblad.

    Gasly commands a dominant 9–3 qualifying advantage over Colapinto this season and consistently establishes Alpine's baseline pace more effectively in opening sessions.

    Bearman boasts a commanding 12–4 intra-team qualifying record over Ocon and was notably quicker across the preliminary sessions during the previous round in Singapore.

    Hulkenberg's wealth of experience around COTA's tricky heavy braking zones at Turns 1, 11, and 12 allows him to dial in low-fuel pace much quicker than Bortoleto in FP1.

    Sainz has soundly outpaced Albon 13–3 in qualifying trim this year and demonstrates superior consistency through high-downforce, technical sectors.

    Alonso retains a lopsided 13–2 head-to-head advantage over Stroll and is substantially faster at finding the limit on green, evolving track surfaces.

    Perez has enjoyed stronger recent form within Cadillac and typically excels in front of his de facto home crowd at Austin, giving him the slight edge over Bottas in FP1.

    AI FP1 ANALYSIS

    The debrief.

    Charles Leclerc edges Max Verstappen to top FP1 at Austin in upgraded Ferrari
    Charles Leclerc led FP1 with a 1:36.052, validating Ferrari's extensive aero updates over Max Verstappen by 0.084 seconds. Red Bull demonstrated blistering speed through Sector 1 despite Verstappen reporting steering friction. McLaren followed closely with Lando Norris in third, while Mercedes showed strong baseline pace on hard tires before George Russell encountered understeer on softs. Audi gathered correlation data using aero rakes, helping Gabriel Bortoleto take eighth. Nico Hulkenberg suffered early reliability trouble, while Williams struggled for clean laps.
    STRATEGY
    Elevated track temperatures of 41.1°C accelerated thermal degradation on soft tires, pointing toward a two-stop strategy on Sunday. Hard and medium compounds showed solid durability during early baseline runs, with Mercedes and Ferrari managing degradation cleanly. Rapid track evolution rewarded later runs in the hour, but tire management through the high-load sweeps of Sector 1 will dictate race stints. Expect teams to rely heavily on medium-to-hard strategies for the Grand Prix.
    KEY MOMENTS
    RUN1
    Colton Herta and Gabriel Bortoleto begin the session running large aerodynamic rakes to conduct correlation tests
    Audi and Cadillac gathered critical aero baseline data before switching into setup work
    RUN2
    Max Verstappen reports friction in his steering rack while George Russell battles sudden understeer on hard tires
    Highlighted car balance challenges across the bumpy high-speed changes of direction in Sector 1
    RUN3
    Charles Leclerc sets the benchmark time of 1:36.052 on soft tires to take P1
    Provided initial validation for Ferrari's revised aerodynamic floor and bodywork package
    RUN4
    Nico Hulkenberg encounters a technical issue that prematurely curtails his running
    Cost Audi valuable setup mileage while teammates and midfield rivals completed long-run data gathering
    AI'S DRIVER PICK
    Gabriel Bortoleto
    Gabriel Bortoleto excelled by placing eighth for Audi, outpacing experienced midfield rivals after starting the session conducting aero tests.
    AI PREDICTION REVIEW
    Our FP1 model achieved a 47% accuracy score, correctly placing Max Verstappen in second position.
    HIT: We accurately predicted Max Verstappen to finish second with high calibrated confidence.
    MISS: We predicted George Russell to take first place, but he finished fourth as Charles Leclerc led the session.
  2. AI PREDICTIONS

    The call.

    PREDICTED FASTEST

    Verstappen was just 0.084s adrift in FP1 while focusing on baseline balance, and Red Bull's recent momentum makes them primed to lead the qualifying simulations in FP2.

    PREDICTED WEATHERDRY
    air29°C
    track49°C
    rain3%
    wind14 km/h
    More Predictions
    FASTEST CONSTRUCTORRed Bull Racing
    VICTORY MARGIN0.182sec
    TEAMMATE BATTLES

    Head-to-head.

    DRIVERRESULT

    Gasly commands a decisive qualifying head-to-head advantage over Colapinto this season and was over three-tenths quicker during initial setup work in FP1.

    Alonso holds a 13-2 single-lap head-to-head record over Stroll this season and demonstrated cleaner execution through COTA's technical sector one in opening practice.

    Bortoleto showed strong baseline comfort around COTA by placing P8 in FP1, over a second clear of Hulkenberg, and narrowly leads their one-lap head-to-head battle.

    Bottas logged representative track mileage in FP1 while Perez encountered early program disruptions, giving the Finn a critical setup baseline heading into the soft-tire runs.

    Leclerc topped FP1 with impressive sector times and historically excels over a single lap at COTA, giving him the edge as qualifying simulations ramp up in FP2.

    Bearman holds an emphatic 12-4 one-lap qualifying record over Ocon this season and maintained that edge by leading the intra-team battle in the weekend's opening session.

    Norris was nearly half a second clear of Piastri in FP1 and consistently extracts stronger peak grip from the soft compound on COTA's high-energy layout.

    While Russell edged FP1 by a tenth, championship leader Antonelli leads their one-lap qualifying head-to-head 10-7 and typically unleashes maximum engine mode performance during FP2 simulations.

    Despite Lindblad's positive FP1 showing, Lawson possesses greater experience optimizing tire preparation through COTA's demanding final sector and leads their seasonal head-to-head.

    Verstappen was directly in contention for the top spot in FP1 and maintains an overwhelming performance and setup advantage over rookie teammate Hadjar.

    Sainz holds a dominant 13-3 one-lap record over Albon this season and is far better positioned to maximize performance after completing full running in FP1.

    AI FP2 ANALYSIS

    The debrief.

    Charles Leclerc edges Kimi Antonelli to head tight second practice at Circuit of the Americas
    Charles Leclerc led FP2 at the Circuit of the Americas with a 1:35.291, edging Kimi Antonelli by 0.042 seconds and Max Verstappen by 0.189 seconds. The session recorded 0 safety cars, 0 virtual safety cars, and 0 red flags. Ferrari demonstrated sharp one-lap performance on soft tires, though Red Bull Racing and Mercedes showed superior long-run degradation. McLaren endured balance challenges with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri in seventh and eighth, while Liam Lawson secured an impressive sixth.
    STRATEGY
    Ambient temperatures reached 29.6°C with track temperatures averaging 40.5°C, accelerating soft tire degradation across Sector 1. Medium and hard compounds displayed considerably greater consistency during high-fuel race simulations, pointing toward a two-stop strategy on Sunday. Red Bull Racing and Mercedes hold a pacing advantage over Ferrari on heavier fuel loads. Continued track evolution will enhance grip, but navigating track limits through high-speed direction changes remains crucial for qualifying execution.
    KEY MOMENTS
    RUN1
    Max Verstappen set the early benchmark on medium tires with a 1:36.581 as track limits caught out several drivers.
    Confirmed strong baseline pace for Red Bull Racing under warm track conditions.
    RUN2
    Kimi Antonelli pitted to rectify a severely loose cockpit seat before heading back out.
    Delayed Mercedes' program and forced Kimi Antonelli onto an offset qualifying simulation run.
    RUN3
    George Russell received a warning flag after crowding Charles Leclerc off circuit in the Esses.
    Compromised hard-tire assessment runs and highlighted Sector 1 traffic congestion.
    RUN4
    Charles Leclerc posted a 1:35.291 on soft tires to secure the fastest lap ahead of Kimi Antonelli and Max Verstappen.
    Cemented Ferrari's single-lap qualifying threat across Friday practice.
    AI'S DRIVER PICK
    Liam Lawson
    Liam Lawson put his Racing Bulls car into sixth place, outpacing both McLaren entries and finishing within a second of the front-runners.
    AI PREDICTION REVIEW
    Our FP2 prediction achieved a 47% accuracy score, correctly foreseeing front-running battles among the top three teams.
    HIT: Accurately forecasting Kimi Antonelli to finish in second position with calibrated confidence.
    MISS: Predicting Max Verstappen to win the session in first position, whereas Charles Leclerc claimed top spot and relegated Max Verstappen to third.
  3. AI PREDICTIONS

    The call.

    PREDICTED FASTEST

    After closing within 0.042s of Leclerc during FP2 on conservative engine maps, championship leader Antonelli is set to uncork Mercedes' qualifying power unit modes during the FP3 soft-tire runs.

    PREDICTED WEATHERDRY
    air27°C
    track43°C
    rain0%
    wind14 km/h
    More Predictions
    FASTEST CONSTRUCTORMercedes
    VICTORY MARGIN0.114sec
    TEAMMATE BATTLES

    Head-to-head.

    DRIVERRESULT

    Antonelli demonstrated superior single-lap progression in FP2 to finish P2, outpacing Russell by seven tenths while showing better composure through COTA's technical final sector.

    Leclerc topped both FP1 and FP2 with dominant qualifying simulation runs, showcasing dialed-in front-end responsiveness through the Esses that Hamilton has yet to match this weekend.

    Verstappen was Red Bull's clear frontrunner in Friday's qualifying simulations, holding a decisive advantage of nearly a second over Hadjar on soft-tire flying laps.

    Norris has held the edge over Piastri in one-lap trim all season (11-6 head-to-head) and consistently edged his teammate across both Friday practice sessions at Austin.

    Lawson took a massive step forward during Friday evening qualifying simulations to set the sixth fastest time overall, exhibiting much stronger low-fuel pace than Lindblad.

    Bearman continues his strong one-lap form against Ocon (12-4 in qualifying head-to-heads) and finished inside the top ten in FP2 with a comfortable margin over his teammate.

    Gasly has commanded Alpine's single-lap pace all year and maintained an advantage of three to four tenths over Colapinto across both practice sessions at COTA.

    Bortoleto adapted exceptionally well to Austin's sweeping high-speed corners, outpacing Hulkenberg by over half a second in both FP1 and FP2 single-lap runs.

    Alonso possesses an overwhelming 13-2 qualifying head-to-head advantage over Stroll this season and extracted cleaner, more consistent pace on low fuel throughout Friday.

    Sainz has heavily controlled Williams' single-lap intra-team battle (13-3 head-to-head) and logged consistent preparation laps while Albon struggled to register competitive low-fuel times.

    Bottas was the only Cadillac driver to put together representative qualifying simulations in both FP1 and FP2, giving him vital track rhythm and setup balance heading into FP3.

  4. SAT 21:00 UTCQualifyingUpcoming
  5. AI PREDICTIONS

    The call.

    PREDICTED PODIUM
    P1Mercedes
    68%
    P2Red Bull Racing
    53%
    P3Ferrari
    44%

    The AI has called it

    Who's in the Mercedes that wins?

    Everyone else sees this call after the chequered flag, when it can't change a thing. See it before lights out.

    See the call ·

    One-off. No subscription. Pro until 24 hours after the raceor Pro from /month

    PREDICTED WEATHERDRY
    air29°C
    track41°C
    rain8%
    wind11 km/h
    Race Incidents
    Safety Car
    ×0no
    VSC
    ×0no
    Red Flag
    no
    #DRIVERTEAMCONFCONFIDENCE
    P4
    39%
    P5
    37%
    P6
    33%
    P7
    31%
    P8
    29%
    P9
    26%
    P10
    24%
    UPSET POTENTIAL
    QUICK STATS
    WINNER MARGIN3.8
    CLASSIFIED20
    More Predictions
    FASTEST LAP
    WINNING CONSTRUCTORMercedes
    FL CONSTRUCTORMercedes
    MOST LAPS LED
    TOP SPEED343 km/h
    Pit Strategy
    First to Pit
    Last to Pit
    Fastest Pit StopFerrari
    TEAMMATE BATTLES

    Head-to-head.

    DRIVERRESULT
    AntonelliKimi Antonelli
    RussellGeorge Russell
    LeclercCharles Leclerc
    HamiltonLewis Hamilton
    VerstappenMax Verstappen
    HadjarIsack Hadjar
    NorrisLando Norris
    PiastriOscar Piastri
    LawsonLiam Lawson
    LindbladArvid Lindblad
    GaslyPierre Gasly
    ColapintoFranco Colapinto
    BearmanOliver Bearman
    OconEsteban Ocon
    BortoletoGabriel Bortoleto
    HulkenbergNico Hulkenberg
    SainzCarlos Sainz
    AlbonAlexander Albon
    AlonsoFernando Alonso
    StrollLance Stroll
    PerezSergio Perez
    BottasValtteri Bottas
MethodologyHow these predictions are made: data, signals, and a locked public record.Read the methodology
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