BelgianGrand PrixSpa
Belgian Grand Prix 2026 results: full race classification, podium, qualifying, fastest laps, pit stops and sector times at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, plus how our AI predictions scored. July 19, 2026.
The verdict
The AI missed the winner.
- P1ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedesHamiltonLewis HamiltonMissed
- P2LECLERCCharles LECLERCFerrariVerstappenMax VerstappenMissed
- P3VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull RacingRussellGeorge RussellMissed
The scorecard.
Your move
Next up: United States GP
Picks lock in
Result vs the AI's call
Key moments
Kimi Antonelli conquers Spa with dominant display as title rival George Russell suffers early heartbreak.
- Lap 1George Russell retires in the gravel following a collision with teammate Lewis Hamilton at Les Combes.The championship leader's DNF blew the title race wide open, while Hamilton received a five-second penalty for causing the collision.
- Lap 17Max Verstappen makes the first stop among the frontrunners.Triggered the undercut phase for the leaders, with Mercedes reacting by pitting Kimi Antonelli a lap later.
- Lap 20Virtual Safety Car deployed to clear debris at Blanchimont.Ferrari perfectly timed a double-stack pit stop, allowing Charles Leclerc to leapfrog Antonelli and assume the net lead.
- Lap 32Kimi Antonelli reclaims the lead from Charles Leclerc at Turn 5.After stalking the Ferrari, Antonelli made the decisive pass and utilized superior pace to break the DRS window.
Head-to-head.
Gasly consistently holds the edge in the head-to-head battle, and his experienced race-management style at Spa typically outweighs Colapinto's raw pace.
Alonso maintains a dominant 6-2 head-to-head record and possesses superior race craft to navigate through traffic from the back of the grid.
Bortoleto has shown better recent race form and possesses a stronger trajectory, while Hulkenberg has frequently underperformed relative to the team's potential.
Perez holds a strong qualifying head-to-head advantage and consistently demonstrates better race-pace management compared to Bottas.
Hamilton's current form is statistically the strongest on the grid; he is better positioned to maximize race results while Leclerc often suffers from race-day position losses.
Ocon exhibits a strong average position gain from grid to finish (+2.4), whereas Bearman struggles significantly with race-day position retention.
Norris starts from a much more favorable grid position (P3 vs P7) and possesses the speed to maintain the gap throughout the race.
Antonelli secured pole position and has demonstrated elite single-lap pace, which should allow him to control the race from the front.
Lawson consistently outperforms his teammate in race conditions and maintains a better seasonal average finish despite Lindblad's occasional flashes of speed.
Verstappen remains the superior racer with a significant grid advantage (P2 vs P10) and is highly unlikely to be beaten by his rookie teammate.
Sainz dominates the head-to-head battle 7-1 and has shown far greater consistency in race results compared to Albon this season.
The weekend
- Session replayWatch replayLap-by-lap positions, gaps and flagsAI PREDICTIONS
The call.
PREDICTED POLEP1AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes72%P2VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing68%P3NorrisLando NorrisMcLaren64%Antonelli has demonstrated superior single-lap pace throughout the weekend, topping both FP2 and FP3, and is currently riding a wave of high-performance confidence on this technical circuit.
PREDICTED WEATHERDRYair20°Ctrack32°Crain20%wind12 km/hRace IncidentsRed Flagyes#DRIVERTEAMCONFCONFIDENCEP4HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari61%P5RussellGeorge RussellMercedes58%P6LeclercCharles LeclercFerrari55%P7PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren52%P8HadjarIsack HadjarRed Bull Racing48%P9HulkenbergNico HulkenbergAudi42%P10LindbladArvid LindbladRacing Bulls38%SURPRISE ELIMINATIONCharles LeclercOut in Q2: Despite his strong season form, Leclerc has struggled to find the ultimate qualifying grip relative to the Mercedes and McLaren cars at Spa this weekend, potentially causing a Q2 exit under high pressure.QUICK STATSPOLE MARGIN0.120More PredictionsQ1 FASTESTMax Verstappen (0.250s)Q2 FASTESTKimi Antonelli (0.180s)WINNING CONSTRUCTORMercedesQUALIFYING RESULTSThe results.
#DRIVERTEAMQ1Q2Q3P1ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedes46.3041:46.30445.1421:45.14244.3611:44.361P2VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull45.9301:45.93045.5891:45.58944.6781:44.678P3NORRISLando NORRISMcLaren45.8651:45.86545.4541:45.45444.8011:44.801P4RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELLMercedes46.1851:46.18545.6891:45.68944.8691:44.869P5LECLERCCharles LECLERCFerrari46.2781:46.27845.3971:45.39744.8931:44.893P6HAMILTONLewis HAMILTONFerrari46.1241:46.12445.5431:45.54344.8951:44.895P7PIASTRIOscar PIASTRIMcLaren46.4331:46.43345.6711:45.67145.0161:45.016P8LINDBLADArvid LINDBLADRB F1 Team46.1911:46.19145.6291:45.62945.1431:45.143P9BORTOLETOGabriel BORTOLETOAudi46.6091:46.60946.0821:46.08245.6281:45.628DNFHADJARIsack HADJAROUT Q2Red Bull46.0621:46.06245.8231:45.823–P11LAWSONLiam LAWSONOUT Q2RB F1 Team46.5011:46.50146.1201:46.120–P12GASLYPierre GASLYOUT Q2Alpine F1 Team46.6791:46.67946.3311:46.331–P13COLAPINTOFranco COLAPINTOOUT Q2Alpine F1 Team46.7951:46.79546.3921:46.392–P14HULKENBERGNico HULKENBERGOUT Q2Audi46.8931:46.89346.6711:46.671–P15SAINZCarlos SAINZOUT Q2Williams47.0801:47.08046.7771:46.777–P16BEARMANOliver BEARMANOUT Q2Haas F1 Team47.1131:47.11346.7791:46.779–P17ALBONAlexander ALBONOUT Q1Williams47.1201:47.120––P18OCONEsteban OCONOUT Q1Haas F1 Team47.8011:47.801––P19BOTTASValtteri BOTTASOUT Q1Cadillac F1 Team47.8231:47.823––P20PEREZSergio PEREZOUT Q1Cadillac F1 Team47.9711:47.971––P21ALONSOFernando ALONSOOUT Q1Aston Martin50.0021:50.002––P22STROLLLance STROLLOUT Q1Aston Martin50.1771:50.177––WEATHERDRYair21.1°Ctrack36.1°Chumidity56%wind2.8 km/hPREDICTION ACCURACYThe scorecard.
PREDICTION ACCURACYPRED VS ACTUALMETRICPREDICTEDACTUALRESULTELIM CALLQ2not eliminatedCONDITIONSdrydryTEMPERATURE20°21°RED FLAGyesyesCALLSPOLEQ1 FASTESTQ2 FASTESTTOP 580%CONSTRUCTORTEAM PREDICTIONS11/11 callsH2H7/11TEAMMATE BATTLESHead-to-head.
DRIVERRESULTColapinto has shown superior single-lap pace throughout the practice sessions at Spa, consistently outpacing Gasly.
Alonso maintains a stronger qualifying record this season and typically extracts more performance from the car when it matters in Q3.
Hulkenberg showed better raw pace in FP3, and despite recent struggles, he holds the edge in experience for a clean qualifying lap.
Bottas has consistently outpaced Perez in practice sessions this weekend, despite the team's struggles.
Hamilton has been the faster Ferrari driver in both FP2 and FP3, showing greater consistency and speed at this circuit.
Bearman has significantly outperformed Ocon across the entire weekend in both practice pace and single-lap runs.
Norris has been extremely quick at Spa this weekend, consistently finding more time than Piastri in all practice sessions.
Antonelli has been dominant throughout the weekend, topping practice sessions and showing superior speed to Russell.
Lindblad has maintained a slight edge over Lawson throughout the practice sessions at this event.
Verstappen consistently shows superior single-lap pace and is the clear favorite to lead his teammate in qualifying.
Albon has looked more comfortable and faster in practice than Sainz, who has struggled with pace all weekend.
AI QUALIFYING ANALYSISThe debrief.
Kimi Antonelli clinches stellar Belgian Grand Prix pole position, holding off a charging Max Verstappen at Spa-Francorchamps.The qualifying hour at the legendary Spa-Francorchamps circuit was a high-stakes tactical battle, defined by rapid track evolution and the ever-present threat of the Ardennes weather. As expected, the session was marked by a red flag, which disrupted the flow early on and forced teams to balance tire temperature management with the need for clear air. Mercedes displayed superior confidence throughout, with Kimi Antonelli demonstrating exquisite car control to consistently extract pace from the W17 across all three sectors. While Max Verstappen pushed the Red Bull to its absolute limits, finding a rhythm that kept him within touching distance of the pole, he could not overcome the final deficit to Antonelli. The Q3 shootout saw Lando Norris secure an impressive third, although his race weekend will be complicated by a grid penalty. Further down the order, the competition was fierce; Isack Hadjar secured a notable P10 finish for Red Bull, though he faces a significant drop due to penalties, while the likes of Liam Lawson and the Alpine drivers narrowly missed the cut in a tightly contested Q2.STRATEGYStrategy revolved heavily around timing the final flying laps to coincide with the peak track evolution. Teams were forced to manage tire preparation carefully, given the length of the lap and the cooling effect of the straights on the rubber. Tow usage was a hot topic, with drivers seeking to capitalize on the slipstream along the Kemmel Straight, though traffic management in the final sector often made this a high-risk gamble. Ultimately, the Mercedes setup proved most effective at balancing the low-downforce requirements for the straights with the necessary grip for the middle sector's technical twists. Those who prioritized clean track space over hunting for a tow generally found more consistent lap times, avoiding the late-session traffic jams that plagued several midfield runners.KEY MOMENTSQ1Red flag interruption early in the sessionDisrupted rhythm for the field, forcing teams to recalibrate their tire warm-up strategies on the long Spa circuit.Q2Rapid track evolution and traffic managementThe track saw significant improvements in grip, leading to a frantic dash in the closing moments of Q2 to secure Q3 spots.Q3Antonelli's definitive final Q3 runWith the track at its peak, Kimi Antonelli delivered a masterclass 1:46.304 to lock out the front row alongside Max Verstappen.AI'S DRIVER PICKIsack HadjarDespite the grid penalty looming, securing a top-10 appearance in the competitive RB F1 machinery highlights his raw pace and adaptability.AI PREDICTION REVIEWOur prediction performed exceptionally well, correctly identifying the pole-sitter, the red flag occurrence, and the majority of the top 10 order.HIT: We correctly predicted the Red Flag and Kimi Antonelli as the pole-sitter, showcasing a strong understanding of the weekend's narrative and team performance trajectory.MISS: We incorrectly predicted Charles Leclerc to be eliminated in Q2; he demonstrated strong form throughout the session to comfortably secure a Q3 spot and ultimately finish P5. - Session replayWatch replayLap-by-lap positions, gaps and flagsAI PREDICTIONS
The call.
After qualiPREDICTED PODIUMP1HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari68%P2VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing54%P3RussellGeorge RussellMercedes42%Hamilton currently demonstrates the best weighted form (P3.4 average) and excels in managing Spa's variable conditions. With a Ferrari package that has shown reliable race-pace and his championship-leading experience, he is best positioned to capitalize on front-runner battles and late-race pace.
PREDICTED WEATHERDRYair19°Ctrack32°Crain15%wind14 km/hRace IncidentsSafety Car×1yesVSC×2yesRed Flagno#DRIVERTEAMCONFCONFIDENCEP4NorrisLando NorrisMcLaren37%P5AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes33%P6PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren28%P7LeclercCharles LeclercFerrari26%P8HadjarIsack HadjarRed Bull Racing22%P9LawsonLiam LawsonRacing Bulls19%P10LindbladArvid LindbladRacing Bulls18%WHAT TO WATCH◆Grid penalties for Norris, Hadjar, Stroll, and Alonso creating significant midfield recovery drives◆Cool, variable weather conditions increasing the importance of tire temperature management◆High historical probability of safety cars at Spa necessitating flexible pit stop strategiesUPSET POTENTIALLando NorrisDespite starting P13 due to a grid penalty, his blistering raw pace and the McLaren's efficiency at Spa could see him carve through the field to challenge for the podium.QUICK STATSWINNER MARGIN2.8CLASSIFIED19More PredictionsFASTEST LAPLando NorrisWINNING CONSTRUCTORFerrariFL CONSTRUCTORMcLarenPit StrategyFirst to PitSergio PerezLast to PitMax VerstappenFastest Pit StopMcLarenTEAM PREDICTIONSTEAMTOP 3TOP 6POINTSFINISHMercedes–✓✓✓McLaren–✓✓✓Ferrari––✓✓Red Bull Racing––✓✓Racing Bulls––✓✓THE FORECASTPROPPROBCALLWill any driver retire due to a mechanical failure (DNF)?85%YESWill the race winner also set the fastest lap of the race?42%NOWill a driver from outside the top 3 teams in the current Constructors' Standings finish on the podium?38%NOWill a yellow flag be triggered in Sector 1 on the first lap?72%YESWill there be more than one safety car deployment during the race?68%YESWill there be a change in the race lead during the final 10 laps?58%YESWill the pole sitter win the race?45%NOWill the points gap between P1 and P2 in the World Drivers' Championship shrink after this race?62%YESFUN PICKSCATBETPROBCALLWEATHERWill the commentary team explicitly highlight the 'Spa microclimate' phenomenon where it is visibly raining at one sector of the track while remaining dry at another during the race broadcast?85%YES ✗BROADCASTWill the race broadcast director cut to an aerial shot of the legendary, mud-soaked campsites surrounding the forest perimeter during the race?90%YES ✗WILDLIFEWill a yellow flag be deployed specifically due to a member of the local Ardennes wildlife (deer, bird, or otherwise) wandering onto the circuit surface?80%NO ✓AI POST-RACE ANALYSISThe debrief.
Kimi Antonelli conquers Spa with dominant display as title rival George Russell suffers early heartbreak.Kimi Antonelli delivered a masterclass at Spa-Francorchamps, securing his sixth win of the 2026 season and extending his championship lead. The race began with high drama as the Mercedes pair of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton collided at Les Combes on the opening lap. While Hamilton continued after a five-second penalty, Russell’s race ended in the gravel, marking a significant blow to his title campaign. Max Verstappen briefly challenged for the lead on the opening lap but could not sustain the pace of the top two as the race settled into a tactical battle of tire management. The race dynamic shifted dramatically on lap 20 when a Virtual Safety Car period allowed Ferrari to bring both Charles Leclerc and Hamilton in for fresh rubber. This tactical masterstroke handed the net lead to Leclerc, who found himself ahead of Antonelli. However, the Mercedes driver was undeterred; he methodically closed the gap to the Ferrari. After struggling briefly in traffic behind Lando Norris, Antonelli showed clinical race craft, stalking Leclerc before making a decisive overtake at Turn 5. Once back in front, Antonelli managed his tires and the gap to the flag, crossing the line 1.9 seconds ahead of the Monegasque driver. Further down the field, the narrative was dominated by Isack Hadjar’s incredible charge. Starting from P21 following a power unit penalty, the Red Bull driver produced one of the drives of the season, slicing through the midfield to secure a remarkable P6 finish. While Ferrari and Mercedes fought for the win, Hadjar’s aggressive overtaking display ensured he was the standout performer in the lower points positions.STRATEGYThe race was defined by the VSC window on lap 20, which essentially handed a 'cheap' stop to Ferrari. While Mercedes initially held track position, the inability to react as quickly as Ferrari—partially due to Antonelli being slightly out of sync with the VSC timing—allowed Leclerc to jump the leader. However, the strategy battle ultimately rewarded the car with superior raw pace. Antonelli’s ability to re-pass the Ferrari on track demonstrated that the Mercedes possessed a slight edge in tire longevity and aero efficiency. Red Bull’s choice to start Hadjar from the back, essentially 'writing off' his qualifying, proved inspired as the strategy to take new components at Spa allowed for his massive points haul.KEY MOMENTSLAP 1George Russell retires in the gravel following a collision with teammate Lewis Hamilton at Les Combes.The championship leader's DNF blew the title race wide open, while Hamilton received a five-second penalty for causing the collision.LAP 17Max Verstappen makes the first stop among the frontrunners.Triggered the undercut phase for the leaders, with Mercedes reacting by pitting Kimi Antonelli a lap later.LAP 20Virtual Safety Car deployed to clear debris at Blanchimont.Ferrari perfectly timed a double-stack pit stop, allowing Charles Leclerc to leapfrog Antonelli and assume the net lead.LAP 32Kimi Antonelli reclaims the lead from Charles Leclerc at Turn 5.After stalking the Ferrari, Antonelli made the decisive pass and utilized superior pace to break the DRS window.DRIVER OF THE DAYCharles LeclercFans voted for Leclerc following a resilient performance where he successfully navigated the tactical challenges of the VSC and held onto P2 despite intense pressure from the faster Mercedes.AI'S DRIVER PICKIsack HadjarHadjar's recovery from the back of the grid (P21) to finish P6 was the standout drive of the afternoon, showcasing both his race craft and the RB22's ability to maximize Spa's long straights for overtaking.AI PREDICTION REVIEWOur predictions were largely off-target regarding the race winner and podium composition, primarily because we underestimated Antonelli's pace and the volatility of a Spa start.HIT: We correctly predicted Lando Norris would utilize the McLaren’s pace to secure the fastest lap and anticipated the impact of a Safety Car/VSC period.MISS: We confidently predicted a Lewis Hamilton win, failing to account for the lap-one collision that severely compromised his race, and missed the significance of the Mercedes/Ferrari tactical shuffle.
Practice
- Practice 1Fastest: Max VERSTAPPENAI missed
- Practice 2Fastest: Kimi ANTONELLIAI missed
- Practice 3Fastest: Kimi ANTONELLIAI missed
FREE PRACTICE 1
The call.
With Ferrari showing strong upgrade momentum and Hamilton's consistent form, he is well-placed to set the pace in a damp but drying FP1 session at Spa.
FP1 Results.
The scorecard.
Head-to-head.
Gasly maintains a slight edge in experience and head-to-head qualifying pace (4-3), which is crucial for finding immediate rhythm in FP1 at the power-demanding Spa circuit.
Alonso consistently outperforms his teammate (6-2 H2H) and possesses the technical capability to extract more from a car on a high-speed circuit like Spa.
Hulkenberg has shown a trend of being over-rated in predictive models, whereas Bortoleto is on an upward trajectory in the season index and has been more competitive recently.
Perez holds a commanding 5-2 H2H record over Bottas; his experience with setup-heavy tracks often results in better initial pace in practice sessions.
Hamilton currently leads the Season Form Index (P1) and consistently delivers faster one-lap pace, while Leclerc's performance has been prone to over-estimation in predictive metrics.
Ocon is consistently under-rated in projections and possesses the necessary racecraft to adapt quickly to Spa, whereas Bearman has shown higher variability.
Piastri (ranked P5 in Season Form) has outperformed Norris (ranked P14) throughout the mid-season, making him the more reliable bet for one-lap pace in FP1.
Antonelli has maintained a stronger Season Form Index position (P2 vs P3) and has consistently shown impressive one-lap speed relative to Russell.
Lawson holds a solid H2H advantage (5-2) and has demonstrated better consistency, which is vital for balancing fuel loads and setup in the opening session.
While Verstappen has the pedigree, Hadjar is currently ranked higher in Season Form (P10 vs P12) and is consistently under-rated by projection biases, making him a strong pick for an FP1 upset.
Sainz holds a dominant 7-1 qualifying head-to-head advantage and is significantly more reliable at extracting pace from the car on technical circuits.
The debrief.
FREE PRACTICE 2
The call.
Hamilton has shown consistent top-tier form this season and thrives in technical, high-speed sectors like Spa, despite the variable weather conditions.
FP2 Results.
The scorecard.
Head-to-head.
Gasly's season head-to-head advantage and ability to optimize one-lap pace during FP2 simulation runs give him the edge over the rookie.
Alonso remains the definitive lead driver for Aston Martin, consistently outperforming Stroll in both qualifying simulations and long-run consistency.
Bortoleto showed superior pace in FP1 and is trending upward; Hulkenberg is historically over-rated in raw qualifying pace this season.
Despite his struggles, Perez maintains a stronger head-to-head record against Bottas, who is frequently over-rated in performance expectations.
Hamilton's current form index and FP1 pace suggest he is currently sharper; Leclerc is often over-rated in my models due to his qualifying bias.
Bearman holds a strong qualifying advantage over Ocon this season, which translates well to FP2 qualifying simulation runs.
Piastri showed better pace in FP1 and is currently demonstrating higher confidence, allowing him to edge out Norris in this specific session.
Antonelli has been a force in single-lap pace this season and his FP1 performance reinforces his momentum over Russell.
Lawson provides more consistent setup feedback and baseline pace, giving him the advantage over the rookie Lindblad in a mixed-program FP2.
Verstappen dominates the circuit characteristics at Spa and led FP1; Hadjar is strong, but the veteran is the clear favorite.
Sainz has a 7-1 qualifying advantage over Albon, whose pace is currently being over-rated by performance trends.
The debrief.
FREE PRACTICE 3
The call.
Verstappen displayed strong single-lap pace in FP1 and remains the benchmark at Spa, likely topping the session as Red Bull fine-tunes their setup.
FP3 Results.
The scorecard.
Head-to-head.
Colapinto has shown superior pace throughout the opening sessions at Spa, particularly in FP2, adapting well to the circuit characteristics.
Alonso maintains a strong 6-2 head-to-head qualifying advantage this season and possesses the experience to extract more from a difficult car at a technical track like Spa.
Bortoleto has consistently outpaced Hulkenberg in both FP1 and FP2 this weekend, suggesting a better setup balance for the current conditions.
While Bottas has shown flashes in practice, Perez holds the 6-3 season qualifying advantage and is historically more reliable in delivering a single-lap peak when needed.
Hamilton has demonstrated more consistent pace across both practice sessions at Spa, whereas Leclerc struggled to match those times in FP2.
Bearman holds a dominant 7-2 qualifying record this season and has remained consistently ahead of Ocon in the session data provided this weekend.
Norris showed impressive pace in FP2, and his trend of peaking in qualifying sessions suggests he will edge out his teammate in the final practice run.
Antonelli topped the FP2 timesheets and has been the stronger driver this weekend, comfortably outpacing Russell throughout Friday's running.
Lindblad has maintained an edge over Lawson in both practice sessions at Spa, demonstrating better confidence through the high-speed sectors.
Verstappen remains the class of the field with a 6-2 season H2H lead, and his superior pace in FP1 reinforces his status as the favorite.
Despite some struggles in practice, Sainz holds a significant 7-1 qualifying advantage this season and is more likely to recover single-lap pace before qualifying.
The debrief.
Belgian Grand Prix predictions FAQ
- Who is predicted to win the Belgian Grand Prix (Spa) 2026?
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- What is the predicted podium for the Belgian Grand Prix (Spa) 2026?
- P1: Lewis Hamilton. P2: Max Verstappen. P3: George Russell.
- Who is predicted to take pole for the Belgian Grand Prix (Spa) 2026?
- Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
- What factors does the AI weigh for Belgian Grand Prix predictions?
- Grid penalties for Norris, Hadjar, Stroll, and Alonso creating significant midfield recovery drives. Cool, variable weather conditions increasing the importance of tire temperature management.