United StatesGrand PrixAustin

Russell consistently hits the ground running in opening practice sessions, having topped FP1 at the previous round with aggressive initial baseline runs. While Antonelli leads the championship, Russell's immediate one-lap comfort on green track surfaces gives him the edge in FP1.

Leclerc holds the official race lap record at COTA and regularly extracts peak single-lap grip from the soft tire compound earlier in practice weekends than Hamilton. Accounting for Leclerc's superior one-lap baseline in recent sessions, he is favored to edge Hamilton over a single flying lap.

Norris holds a decisive 11–6 head-to-head advantage over Piastri in pure single-lap trim and comfortably outpaced him during the opening practice run in Singapore. His aggressive driving style suits COTA's high-speed Sector 1 sweeps, allowing him to set the intra-team benchmark early.

Verstappen comes into Austin riding the momentum of a dominant Singapore victory and possesses vastly superior experience optimizing Red Bull's aero platform around COTA's technical layout. Hadjar will spend most of FP1 acclimating to the track's heavy bump sequences and baseline setup.

Gasly commands a dominant 9–3 qualifying and single-lap head-to-head record over Colapinto this season, including beating him by nearly a full second in Singapore FP1. Gasly's experience across COTA's challenging 20-turn layout will allow him to establish a much quicker early pace.

Lawson has been in stellar form, ranking second on the season form index and leading Lindblad in both qualifying head-to-head and Singapore FP1 times. His familiarity with COTA will give him an immediate advantage over rookie Lindblad during initial setup exploration.

Bearman has dominated the intra-team qualifying battle against Ocon with a 12–4 record and routinely produces faster low-fuel exploratory laps on Fridays. Ocon typically concentrates on race-trim setup validation early in the weekend, handing Bearman the FP1 lap-time advantage.

Hulkenberg's deep historical experience at COTA allows him to quickly dial in baseline braking points through Austin's tricky off-camber complexes. That circuit knowledge will give him a modest edge over Bortoleto on early low-fuel runs as Audi dials in mechanical balance.

Sainz has held an overwhelming 13–3 single-lap advantage over Albon throughout the 2026 season and consistently extracts lap time earlier in race weekends. With Albon frequently battling car balance on green circuits, Sainz should comfortably lead Williams' timing sheets in FP1.

Alonso maintains a commanding 13–2 head-to-head record against Stroll this year and outpaced him by more than seven tenths in the last FP1 session. Alonso's unmatched adaptability across low-grip Friday conditions makes him the overwhelming favorite in this matchup.

Gasly commands a dominant 9–3 qualifying head-to-head record over Colapinto this season and consistently hooks up cleaner low-fuel soft-tire simulation runs.

Alonso leads their qualifying head-to-head 13–2 and routinely extracts far more one-lap performance through COTA's technical, high-commitment middle and final sectors.

Hulkenberg has carried superior qualifying momentum from recent rounds and is renowned for maximizing Friday qualifying simulation laps compared to his rookie teammate.

Perez displayed sharper baseline pace across low-fuel sessions in Singapore and historically finds comfortable setup balance around COTA's traction zones.

Leclerc holds the edge in their head-to-head one-lap battle and typically attacks fresh-rubber practice simulation laps with sharper aggression through the fast Sector 1 esses.

Bearman holds an emphatic 12–4 qualifying head-to-head over Ocon and routinely sets the team benchmark during FP2 qualifying simulations.

Norris leads the single-lap intra-team battle 11–6 and typically possesses an edge in high-speed direction changes that feature heavily across COTA's opening sector.

Antonelli leads Russell 10–7 in qualifying trims and has demonstrated superior single-lap execution while leading the championship standings.

Lawson has demonstrated top-tier form in recent events and maintains an established qualifying advantage over Lindblad in low-fuel Friday preparations.

Verstappen remains the class of Red Bull on outright pace and will comfortably outperform Hadjar on soft-tire qualifying simulations at a circuit where he has excelled historically.

Gasly holds a dominant 9–3 qualifying head-to-head advantage over Colapinto this season and consistently delivers cleaner soft-tire qualifying simulations. His technical experience around COTA's intricate layout gives him a distinct edge in FP3 preparation.

Alonso leads Stroll 13–2 in Saturday single-lap head-to-heads this season and extracts far more performance out of the AMR package on low fuel. Stroll's persistent qualifying struggles make an FP3 upset highly improbable.

While the intra-team battle is close, Hulkenberg comes off an impressive Singapore weekend and typically excels at refining car balance for final qualifying simulations. His veteran prowess through COTA's high-speed Esses should edge out the rookie in FP3.

With the Cadillac teammates tied 6–6 in one-lap pace this season, Bottas's historical affinity for COTA's rhythmic corners gives him a slight upper hand over single-lap trim. Perez often focuses on race-setup compromises, leaving Bottas favored on outright FP3 flying laps.

Leclerc is exceptionally potent over a single lap around Austin, holding the race lap record and historically dominating Sector 1 change of direction. With Ferrari's strong form on permanent circuits and Leclerc edging the intra-team qualifying battle, he is poised to lead Hamilton in FP3.

Bearman commands a lopsided 12–4 head-to-head advantage over Ocon in qualifying trim this season, demonstrating superior peak grip extraction on fresh softs. Expect Bearman to replicate that one-lap margin during the late FP3 performance runs.

Norris leads the internal qualifying battle 11–6 and favors high-downforce, flowing sectors like COTA's opening complex. Piastri has made strides, but Norris typically nails the optimal front-end balance earlier in Saturday morning sessions.

Championship leader Antonelli holds a 10–7 single-lap advantage over Russell this year and has demonstrated superior consistency when bolting on new soft tires at the end of practice. While Russell is quick, Antonelli's stellar current form should see him top the timing sheets between the two.

Lawson sits second on the season form index following consecutive strong weekends and leads the intra-team qualifying battle. Lindblad continues to learn COTA's technical nuances, giving Lawson the clear advantage for FP3 qualifying simulations.

Verstappen is in peak form after sweeping pole and the win in Singapore and remains unmatched within Red Bull in low-fuel qualifying simulations. Hadjar has shown flashes of raw speed but lacks the precision through COTA's demanding middle sector to threaten Verstappen on a flying lap.