ROUND 6 · JUN 7 · MONTE CARLO

MonacoGrand Prix

MonacoCOMPLETED

RACE

DONE58% ACCURATE
Sunday, Jun 7 · 01:00 PM UTC
AI PREDICTIONS

The call.

PREDICTED PODIUM

Antonelli has demonstrated superior qualifying pace and is currently on a dominant winning streak, which is crucial at a circuit where track position is paramount. Starting from pole, he is well-positioned to manage the race tempo and defend against the tighter street layout.

PREDICTED WEATHERDRY
23°Cair41°Ctrack12%12 km/h
Safety Car×1yes
VSC×2yes
Red Flagyes
WHAT TO WATCH
Pole position is decisive on the tight street circuit of Monte Carlo
High probability of race neutralization requiring smart safety car pit strategy
Tire management on the soft compound to avoid the one-stop traffic jam
UPSET POTENTIAL
Charles Leclerc
Leclerc could leverage his local knowledge and aggressive starts to jump a front-runner early, forcing a strategic defensive drive to claim a historic home victory.
QUICK STATS
WINNER MARGIN2.4
CLASSIFIED19
FASTEST LAPLewis Hamilton
WINNING CONSTRUCTORMercedes
FL CONSTRUCTORFerrari
First to PitEsteban Ocon
Last to PitKimi Antonelli
Fastest Pit StopRed Bull Racing
THE FORECAST
PROP
PROB
CALL
Will Sergio Perez be classified as a DNF?
41%
no
Will Lance Stroll be classified as a DNF?
36%
no
Will the race winner be the driver who starts on Pole Position?
66%
yes
Will there be a Lap 1 incident resulting in a yellow flag or retirement?
58%
yes
Will there be more than one Safety Car deployment during the race?
43%
no
Will the eventual race winner also set the Fastest Lap of the race?
27%
no
Will there be a change in the race leader during the final 10 laps?
18%
no
Will the WDC points gap between P1 (Kimi Antonelli) and P2 shrink this weekend?
39%
no
Will a driver from a team outside the top 3 constructors (Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull) finish on the podium?
24%
no
Will the pole sitter lead every single lap of the race?
14%
no
SEASON PREDICTIONS
VIEW ALL →
Early WDC Decision98%1
Antonelli WDC98%4
Merc WCC99%
Mercedes WCC98%25
Updated after Round 6 · 23 active predictions
FUN PICKS
CAT
BET
PROB
CALL
WILDLIFE
Will a seagull be caught on the broadcast cameras perching on the track barriers during the race?
65%
yes
BROADCAST
Will the broadcast show Prince Albert II looking visibly stressed during a tight overtake at the Loews Hairpin?
55%
yes
CHAOS
Will at least one driver 'kiss' the barrier at the Swimming Pool chicane without triggering a red flag?
80%
yes
TEAMMATE BATTLES

Head-to-head.

P7+30.369s
+48.964sP14

Gasly qualified significantly higher (P9 vs P14) on a track where overtaking is notoriously difficult.

DNF
+41.899sP10

Alonso possesses superior race craft and consistency at Monaco, which is critical for defending or maintaining track position.

P13+44.102s
+42.748sP11

Hulkenberg's experience and P13 grid start give him a distinct advantage over the rookie Bortoleto on this street circuit.

P15+49.153s
DNF

Perez historically performs well on street circuits and starts ahead of Bottas on the grid.

P2+6.271s
DNF

Hamilton qualified higher (P3 vs P4) and, given the minimal overtaking opportunities, track position is the primary deciding factor.

P9+37.140s
DNF

Ocon has a better grid position (P17) and more experience managing a race in tight, congested conditions.

P4+24.261s
DNF

Piastri narrowly outperformed Norris in qualifying (P7 vs P8) and should maintain this marginal gap on race day.

P1Leader
+43.353sP12

Antonelli is on a dominant form streak, starting from Pole Position while his teammate starts down in P6.

P5+26.553s
+29.010sP6

Lawson qualified in the top 10 (P10) and has the race experience to defend his position against his rookie teammate.

DNF
+23.394sP3

Verstappen starts on the front row (P2) and consistently manages race pace better than his younger teammate.

DNF
+33.413sP8

Albon edged out Sainz in qualifying (P11 vs P12) and is well-positioned to capitalize on his superior starting slot.

PREDICTION ACCURACY

The scorecard.

WINNER
PODIUM33%
TOP 1060%
CONSTRUCTOR
FASTEST LAP
MARGIN2.4s / 6.27s
CONDITIONSdry / dry
TEMPERATURE23° / 24°
SAFETY CARyes (1) / yes (2)
VSCyes / no
RED FLAGyes / yes
FL TEAM
WIN + FL
POLE → WIN
CLASSIFIED19 / 15
1ST PIT
LAST PIT
PIT SPEED
TEAMS29/44
H2H9/11
FORECAST6/10
FUN PICKS0/3
AI POST-RACE ANALYSIS

The debrief.

Kimi Antonelli masters the Principality, storming to a maiden Monaco victory in a race of chaos and red flags.
The 2026 Monaco Grand Prix will be remembered as a masterclass from Kimi Antonelli, who navigated a fractured and high-stakes afternoon to secure his fifth win of the season. The race was defined early by the shock retirement of Max Verstappen, who stalled at the start and never rejoined, leaving the path clear for the Mercedes prodigy. While Antonelli managed the gap with surgical precision, the race behind him descended into tactical warfare. The narrative shifted significantly in the final quarter when the track surface at the final corner began to break up, leading to a race-altering red flag on lap 68. The incident, which ended Charles Leclerc’s hopes of a podium, forced the field into a sprint finish following the restart. While George Russell’s race unraveled through a series of pit lane penalties and navigational errors, Lewis Hamilton kept the pressure on his successor, ultimately securing second place for Ferrari. It was a day where experience fought youth, but it was Antonelli who stood tallest amidst the chaos.
KEY MOMENTS
LAP 1
Max Verstappen stalls on the grid and retires, while Antonelli holds the lead from pole.
The early exit of the championship contender opened the door for Antonelli to dictate the race tempo from the front.
LAP 28
Lewis Hamilton pits for hard tires, initiating the tactical battle between the lead pack.
This undercut attempt forced the field to react, tightening the gap between Hamilton and the chasing pack.
LAP 68
Race red-flagged due to track surface degradation at the final corner and a subsequent crash involving Charles Leclerc.
The stoppage bunched the field, neutralized strategy gaps, and set up a chaotic sprint to the finish.
LAP 78
Kimi Antonelli takes the checkered flag, completing a dominant drive under intense pressure.
The result solidified Antonelli's championship lead and cemented his status as a master of the Monaco circuit.
DRIVER OF THE DAY
Kimi Antonelli
Fans voted for Antonelli for his flawless management of the race from lights-out to checkered flag, keeping cool despite multiple safety car interventions and a late red flag.
AI'S DRIVER PICK
Isack Hadjar
Hadjar drove an exceptionally composed race to secure a podium finish, capitalizing on the chaos around him to prove he belongs in the front-running mix.
STRATEGY
The race was a game of tire conservation and tactical reaction. The primary battleground was the pit lane, with the early switch to hard tires for the frontrunners proving to be the right call to manage degradation. However, the late red flag completely reset the strategic landscape, effectively handing a 'free' tire change to those who had managed their equipment best. The crucial delta was the management of the restart phase. Teams that had preserved a set of soft tires for a potential dash were rewarded, while those—like Russell—who fell foul of pit lane regulations and penalties, saw their strategic flexibility completely evaporate. Antonelli’s team managed the transitions perfectly, ensuring he never left himself vulnerable to an undercut.
AI PREDICTION REVIEW
Our prediction performance was moderate at 0.62, correctly identifying the winner and the safety car, but failing to account for the red-flag incident.
HIT: We correctly identified Kimi Antonelli as the race winner, correctly citing his superior qualifying pace and starting position as the deciding factor.
MISS: We incorrectly predicted a podium finish for Charles Leclerc and predicted a race distance without a red flag; the track surface issues completely upended our expected finishing order.
POST-RACE DATA

The data.

RACE POSITIONS
78 LAPS
BEST SECTOR TIMES
S1 BEST
19.379
Kimi ANTONELLI
S2 BEST
34.566
Kimi ANTONELLI
S3 BEST
19.536
Kimi ANTONELLI
OVERTAKES
132 PASSES
TOTAL
132
TOP OVERTAKER
12
Arvid LINDBLAD
MOST OVERTAKEN
20
Max VERSTAPPEN
TOP OVERTAKERS
1LIN
12
2PER
10
3OCO
10
4ALO
10
5BOR
9
TIRE STRATEGY
MEDIUM
SOFT
HARD
120395978
P1ANTONELLI
M
H
S
S
4×
P2HAMILTON
M
H
S
S
5×
P3HADJAR
M
H
H
S
4×
P4PIASTRI
M
H
S
S
5×
P5LAWSON
M
S
S
S
4×
P6LINDBLAD
M
M
S
4×
P7GASLY
M
H
H
S
4×
P8ALBON
M
S
S
S
5×
P9OCON
M
H
H
S
5×
P10ALONSO
S
S
S
6×
INCIDENTS & PENALTIES
269 EVENTS
DELETED LAPS
30
PENALTIES
17
SC / VSC
2
RED FLAGS
1
L9FIA STEWARDS: DRIVE THROUGH PENALTY FOR CAR 11 (PER) - FALSE START - OUT OF POSITION (15:03:08)
L11FIA STEWARDS: PENALTY SERVED - DRIVE THROUGH PENALTY FOR CAR 11 (PER) - FALSE START - OUT OF POSITION (15:03:08)
L14CAR 55 (SAI) TIME 1:18.858 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 16 LAP 12 15:19:04
L15CAR 23 (ALB) TIME 1:18.836 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 14 15:21:23
L20CAR 43 (COL) TIME 1:18.809 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 15 15:22:49
L20CAR 41 (LIN) TIME 1:19.406 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 17 15:25:29

QUALIFYING

DONE51% ACCURATE
Saturday, Jun 6 · 02:00 PM UTC
AI PREDICTIONS

The call.

PREDICTED POLE

Hamilton demonstrated the strongest single-lap pace during FP2, and Ferrari's chassis setup appears perfectly suited to the Monaco street circuit's high-downforce requirements. His experience in managing the tight, technical sectors gives him the edge in securing the top spot.

PREDICTED WEATHERDRY
20°Cair38°Ctrack20%14 km/h
Red Flagyes
SURPRISE ELIMINATION
Fernando Alonso
Out in Q1 — Aston Martin has struggled significantly with warm-up and single-lap pace throughout the weekend, making an early exit on this street circuit highly probable.
QUICK STATS
POLE MARGIN0.084
Q1 FASTESTCharles Leclerc (0.210s)
Q2 FASTESTMax Verstappen (0.120s)
WINNING CONSTRUCTORFerrari
TEAMMATE BATTLES

Head-to-head.

P9
P14

Gasly has consistently demonstrated superior pace across both practice sessions, handling the tight Monaco sector requirements better than Colapinto.

P22
P21

Stroll has shown marginally better pace in practice; while both are struggling, Stroll seems more comfortable with the current car setup on this specific circuit.

P13
P16

Hulkenberg has consistently outpaced his teammate throughout the weekend and brings the necessary qualifying experience for Monte Carlo.

P18
P20

Perez has maintained presence in the top 20 times, whereas Bottas has struggled significantly with pace and visibility in the practice sessions.

P3
P4

While Hamilton topped FP2, Leclerc's intrinsic ability to find single-lap pace at his home race makes him the narrow favorite for qualifying.

P17
P19

Bearman showed impressive growth in FP2, securing a P10 while Ocon remained mired in the bottom half of the field.

P7
P8

Norris suffered a significant drop-off in FP2 (P19), while Piastri displayed consistent top-10 speed, making him the safer bet for qualifying.

P1Leader
P6

Russell edged out Antonelli in FP2; his veteran experience in high-pressure qualifying sessions gives him a slight edge over the rookie.

P10
P15

Lindblad has shown stronger practice pace, consistently staying ahead of Lawson across both sessions in Monaco.

P2
P5

Verstappen is a dominant force on technical street circuits and significantly outperformed Hadjar in both practice sessions.

P12
P11

Sainz has shown better progression with car setup throughout the weekend, edging ahead of Albon in the FP2 classification.

QUALIFYING RESULTS

The results.

WEATHERDRY
23.7°Cair38.5°Ctrack55%0.9 km/h
INCIDENTS & PENALTIES
73 EVENTS
DELETED LAPS
26
PENALTIES
2
RED FLAGS
1
CAR 63 (RUS) TIME 1:35.179 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 2 16:02:59
CAR 63 (RUS) TIME 1:33.532 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 3 16:04:26
CAR 11 (PER) TIME 1:30.897 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 5 16:05:06
CAR 63 (RUS) TIME 1:39.599 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 5 16:07:16
CAR 11 (PER) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 7 16:07:51 (PIT)
CAR 63 (RUS) TIME 1:33.562 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 6 16:08:50
PREDICTION ACCURACY

The scorecard.

POLE
Q1 FASTEST
Q2 FASTEST
TOP 580%
ELIM CALLQ1 / Q1
CONSTRUCTOR
CONDITIONSdry / dry
TEMPERATURE20° / 24°
RED FLAGyes / yes
TEAMS11/11
H2H5/11
AI QUALIFYING ANALYSIS

The debrief.

Kimi Antonelli cements his meteoric rise with a sensational pole position at the Monaco Grand Prix.
Saturday in the Principality was a masterclass in high-stakes drama, culminating in a qualifying session that will be remembered for Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s stunning breakthrough. While Ferrari had looked ominous throughout the weekend, the narrative shifted during a frenetic Q1 session interrupted by a red flag caused by Gabriel Bortoleto’s impact with the barriers. The incident left the field scrambling, with Carlos Sainz performing a miracle to claw his way out of the danger zone, while the Haas duo failed to progress. As the session bled into Q3, the tension reached a fever pitch. Charles Leclerc initially looked poised to deliver for the home crowd, snatching provisional pole, but the Monegasque’s efforts were ultimately undone by a late-session error at Tabac. With Ferrari’s challenge faltering, the battle became a straight duel between the championship leader and the reigning champion. Max Verstappen laid down a formidable benchmark, momentarily looking set to deny the Mercedes driver, but Antonelli delivered a peerless final sector to steal the top spot by a razor-thin 0.043s margin.
KEY MOMENTS
Q1
Gabriel Bortoleto crashes in Q1
A late-session red flag created a chaotic two-minute scramble to reach Q2, leaving little room for error and forcing title contenders to rush their final preparations.
Q3
Charles Leclerc hits the wall at Tabac
After momentarily snatching provisional pole, the Monegasque driver clipped the barrier on his final flyer, ending his pole charge and dropping him to P4.
Q3
Antonelli's final flying lap
In a display of nerves of steel, the Mercedes driver pipped Max Verstappen by just 0.043s to claim his maiden Monaco pole position.
AI'S DRIVER PICK
Isack Hadjar
Securing a top-five start in the Red Bull is a phenomenal result for the youngster, showcasing elite adaptability on a track that rarely forgives inexperience.
STRATEGY
Qualifying at Monaco is always a game of tire warm-up and gap management. The track evolution was significant, with the rubbering-in of the circuit demanding drivers delay their final push laps until the absolute final seconds of each segment. The red flag in Q1 forced a tactical shift for teams, who had to abandon multi-lap building strategies in favor of 'do-or-die' outlaps. In Q3, the ability to generate heat in the tires without destroying them over the first two sectors proved the deciding factor in the 0.043s gap between the front row.
AI PREDICTION REVIEW
Our prediction correctly anticipated the high probability of a red flag and the dry, stable conditions, but struggled to accurately forecast the competitive order at the front.
HIT: We correctly predicted the high-risk nature of the session, accurately anticipating the red flag that disrupted Q1.
MISS: We significantly underestimated Kimi Antonelli's single-lap pace, pinning our pole hopes on Lewis Hamilton, and predicted a much lower finishing position for the eventual pole-sitter.

FREE PRACTICE 3

DONE80% ACCURATE
Saturday, Jun 6 · 10:30 AM UTC
AI PREDICTIONS

The call.

PREDICTED FASTEST

Antonelli arrives in Monaco with unmatched momentum after three consecutive wins, demonstrating superior car control and confidence on this high-precision street circuit.

PREDICTED WEATHERDRY
24°Cair38°Ctrack1%13 km/h
FASTEST CONSTRUCTORMercedes
VICTORY MARGIN0.190sec
TEAMMATE BATTLES

Head-to-head.

P13+1.760s
+2.459sP19

While Colapinto is showing strong race pace, Gasly’s experience on the narrow streets of Monaco gives him the edge in establishing a rhythm during the critical FP3 setup session.

P22+3.201s
+2.847sP21

Alonso is a master of street circuits and extracting maximum pace from the car in one-lap qualifying simulations, far outpacing Stroll's consistency.

P10+1.330s
+1.100sP7

Hulkenberg’s qualifying prowess is well-documented, and he is better equipped to handle the high-risk, high-reward nature of Monaco's qualifying simulations in FP3.

P18+2.225s
+2.731sP20

Perez is historically one of the strongest drivers on street circuits and will be pushing hard to recover confidence after a difficult outing in Canada.

P3+0.331s
+0.327sP2

Leclerc is incredibly fast at his home Grand Prix; his ability to find the limit on these specific streets usually results in him dominating practice sessions.

P11+1.558s
+1.767sP14

Ocon’s experience in the midfield helps him navigate the tight, twisty Monaco sectors more effectively than the rookie Bearman during final practice.

P6+0.978s
+1.286sP9

Norris needs a strong weekend to regain momentum after his DNF in Canada and will likely prioritize a cleaner, faster FP3 to set the tone for qualifying.

P1Leader
+0.763sP4

Antonelli is in the form of his life, winning three consecutive races; his current confidence level makes him the favorite to edge out Russell even in practice.

P15+1.867s
+2.198sP17

Lawson possesses significantly more F1 machinery experience, which is vital for building confidence and speed safely on the tight Monaco layout.

P5+0.942s
+1.157sP8

Verstappen’s setup ability and raw pace are vastly superior to the rookie Hadjar, especially at a technical circuit like Monaco where car placement is everything.

P12+1.616s
+2.081sP16

Sainz is exceptionally technical and excels at street circuits; he typically manages the tire warm-up and gap-finding in FP3 better than Albon.

PREDICTION ACCURACY

The scorecard.

FASTEST
TOP 560%
CONSTRUCTOR
MARGIN0.19s / 0.33s
CONDITIONSdry / dry
TEMPERATURE24° / 23°
H2H9/11
AI FP3 ANALYSIS

The debrief.

Kimi Antonelli stuns with Mercedes resurgence as Ferrari battles brake woes in final Monaco practice.
Mercedes has officially disrupted the Ferrari narrative at the Monaco Grand Prix. After a dominant Friday for the Scuderia, Kimi Antonelli roared to the top of the timesheets in FP3, dipping under the 73-second barrier with a 1:12.720. This lap suggests that Mercedes has found the critical setup window that eluded them yesterday, turning the qualifying battle into a three-way fight between Antonelli and the Ferrari duo. While Ferrari maintains strong single-lap potential, both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton were audibly frustrated with brake performance throughout the hour. This is a troubling development for the Prancing Horse; if the team cannot resolve these temperature and modulation issues, it could compromise not only their qualifying precision but also their ability to defend against the charging Mercedes on race day. Elsewhere, McLaren struggled to find their footing, with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris unable to challenge the top five, while Oliver Bearman's crash at Massenet added a chaotic, red-flagged dimension to the final preparations.
KEY MOMENTS
RUN1
Early traffic and track evolution.
Drivers struggled to find clear air throughout the session, which will be a critical factor in the upcoming qualifying shootout.
RUN2
Ferrari reports ongoing brake concerns.
Both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton voiced frustrations regarding braking performance, potentially jeopardizing their long-run stability for the race.
RUN3
Oliver Bearman hits the barriers at Massenet.
The incident triggered a red flag, halting progress and disrupting the final qualifying simulations for the rest of the field.
RUN4
Kimi Antonelli sets the fastest lap (1:12.720).
Mercedes unlocked significant pace overnight, signaling a serious threat to Ferrari's dominance on the streets of Monte Carlo.
AI'S DRIVER PICK
Kimi Antonelli
His ability to outperform established leaders like Leclerc and Hamilton on the tightest track of the year demonstrates remarkable maturity and car control.
STRATEGY
The data from FP3 underscores that track position will be the primary currency this weekend. The traffic issues witnessed in this session suggest that qualifying will be a chaotic affair, with drivers struggling to generate tire temperature while dodging slower cars. Ferrari’s brake issues must be the priority; if they cannot mitigate the heat soak, they risk an inconsistent race pace that could see them vulnerable to the Mercedes duo. Tire degradation appeared manageable for most, but the soft compound's window is extremely narrow. We expect a strategic focus on clean air and undercut potential, as the tight confines of Monaco make overtaking a rarity, placing a massive premium on the grid spots secured this afternoon.
AI PREDICTION REVIEW
Our podium candidates—Hamilton, Antonelli, and Leclerc—are clearly the fastest drivers, but the order is far more volatile than anticipated.
HIT: We correctly identified that the podium fight would be locked between Ferrari and Mercedes, with all three of our predicted top drivers currently sitting in the top 3.
MISS: We underestimated Kimi Antonelli's raw pace, placing him P2 in our predictions while he is currently outperforming our P1 pick, Lewis Hamilton.
INCIDENTS & PENALTIES
73 EVENTS
DELETED LAPS
47
RED FLAGS
1
CAR 44 (HAM) TIME 1:51.026 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 5 12:35:54
CAR 77 (BOT) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 5 12:35:55 (PIT)
CAR 77 (BOT) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 16 LAP 5 12:36:15 (PIT)
CAR 16 (LEC) TIME 1:16.505 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 6 12:37:00
CAR 43 (COL) TIME 1:29.111 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 3 12:37:28
CAR 11 (PER) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 4 12:37:48 (PIT)

FREE PRACTICE 2

DONE42% ACCURATE
Friday, Jun 5 · 03:00 PM UTC
AI PREDICTIONS

The call.

PREDICTED FASTEST

Coming off three consecutive victories, the championship leader carries unmatched momentum into the technical streets of Monaco, where his precision is currently setting the benchmark.

PREDICTED WEATHERDRY
23°Cair39°Ctrack8%12 km/h
FASTEST CONSTRUCTORMercedes
VICTORY MARGIN0.280sec
TEAMMATE BATTLES

Head-to-head.

P11+1.471s
+1.732sP15

Gasly's superior experience on technical street circuits like Monaco will help him find a rhythm earlier in the practice session than his teammate.

P22+3.148s
+2.268sP20

Alonso is a master of extracting lap time on tight, unforgiving circuits, and his precision is vital during FP2 setup runs.

P8+1.068s
+1.333sP9

Hulkenberg possesses the raw one-lap pace necessary for Monaco and typically outperforms rookies in the early stages of a race weekend.

P18+2.090s
+2.733sP21

Despite his struggles recently, Perez is historically a strong street-circuit performer and needs to build confidence in FP2 to secure his seat.

P1Leader
+0.111sP2

Leclerc will be pushing hard on his home circuit, and his unique ability to attack the curbs at Monaco gives him the edge in practice simulations.

P17+1.819s
+1.430sP10

Ocon’s experience in managing complex street track telemetry will prove more reliable than Bearman's, who will be focused on learning the limits.

P7+1.062s
+2.248sP19

Piastri's smooth and methodical driving style often translates well to Monaco, while Norris will be looking to regain momentum after a difficult Canadian GP.

P5+0.503s
+0.379sP4

Antonelli is riding an incredible wave of form and confidence, which is the most critical factor when building pace around the walls of Monte Carlo.

P16+1.759s
+1.722sP14

Lawson has more F1 track time under his belt, which is crucial for maximizing the limited windows available in FP2.

P3+0.168s
+1.061sP6

Verstappen’s aggression and car control are perfectly suited to Monaco, and he will look to assert dominance immediately in practice.

P12+1.486s
+1.574sP13

Sainz is a highly technical driver who excels at circuit management and rhythm, giving him an advantage over Albon on this tight track.

PREDICTION ACCURACY

The scorecard.

FASTEST
TOP 580%
CONSTRUCTOR
MARGIN0.28s / 0.11s
CONDITIONSdry / dry
TEMPERATURE23° / 23°
H2H7/11
AI FP2 ANALYSIS

The debrief.

Hamilton surges to the top in Monte Carlo as Ferrari dominance leaves rivals scrambling
Friday in the Principality was a statement of intent from Ferrari, with Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc monopolizing the top two spots in FP2. Hamilton’s 1:13.026 benchmark highlighted the SF-26's prowess in low-speed traction—a vital commodity for the tight confines of Monaco. While the team looks dominant, the gap to Max Verstappen in third remains razor-thin, keeping Red Bull firmly in the hunt for Saturday's pole position battle. Mercedes showed steady progression with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli finishing fourth and fifth, though both noted the car remains a handful over the bumps. Down the order, the narrative was defined by frustration rather than pace. Lando Norris, a pre-weekend favorite, saw his session severely curtailed by a mechanical issue, leaving McLaren with a massive data deficit heading into final practice. Similarly, Sergio Perez’s smoky exit served as a stark reminder of Monaco’s unforgiving nature, with fire damage putting the Cadillac garage on high alert. With track evolution accelerating rapidly, the field is tightening up, but Ferrari currently holds the ace in this high-stakes game of street-circuit chess.
KEY MOMENTS
RUN1
Lewis Hamilton sets the pace
Ferrari's upgrade package proves effective on street circuits, with Hamilton finding the confidence to push into the 1:13s early.
RUN2
Lando Norris stops on track
A significant reliability issue for McLaren at the Nouvelle Chicane cost the reigning champion critical track time, leaving him P19 and on the back foot.
RUN3
Sergio Perez technical failure
A smoking Cadillac forced a Virtual Safety Car (VSC) and eventual early end to the session, disrupting long-run simulations for the entire field.
RUN4
Isack Hadjar returns
After his FP1 crash, the Red Bull junior successfully rejoined the session, proving the team's mechanics can recover quickly from heavy impacts.
AI'S DRIVER PICK
Charles Leclerc
Despite being eclipsed by his teammate, Leclerc's consistency across both sessions suggests he is the most comfortable driver on the grid, perfectly poised for a home-soil qualifying masterclass.
STRATEGY
FP2 data confirms that tire degradation is remarkably low, which will push teams toward a aggressive one-stop strategy. The track evolution between sessions was significant, meaning the grip levels will continue to spike through FP3 and Qualifying. Teams are heavily prioritizing the Soft compound for qualifying simulations, but with the high probability of a safety car intervention, long-run fuel loads were compromised today. Those who can balance single-lap pace with a car that doesn't 'bottom out' through the tunnel will hold the advantage on Sunday.
AI PREDICTION REVIEW
We correctly identified Mercedes' pace and Ferrari's strength, but underestimated Lewis Hamilton's personal performance while over-relying on Kimi Antonelli's recent momentum.
HIT: We correctly predicted that Mercedes would maintain a top-5 presence for both cars, accurately gauging their technical suitability for this circuit.
MISS: We failed to predict the reliability issues plaguing Lando Norris and Sergio Perez, which completely derailed the mid-field order compared to our finishing-order projection.
INCIDENTS & PENALTIES
110 EVENTS
DELETED LAPS
72
SC / VSC
1
RED FLAGS
1
CAR 41 (LIN) TIME 1:29.778 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 3 17:02:54
CAR 81 (PIA) TIME 1:41.635 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 2 17:02:56
CAR 5 (BOR) TIME 1:17.865 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 4 17:04:14
CAR 23 (ALB) TIME 1:25.104 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 4 17:05:25
CAR 77 (BOT) TIME 1:17.674 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 4 17:05:21
CAR 5 (BOR) TIME 1:36.758 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 16 LAP 5 17:05:57

FREE PRACTICE 1

DONE50% ACCURATE
Friday, Jun 5 · 11:30 AM UTC
AI PREDICTIONS

The call.

PREDICTED FASTEST

Coming off three consecutive race wins, Antonelli is exhibiting supreme confidence and pace, and his ability to quickly adapt to the technical demands of the Monaco circuit makes him the clear favorite to top the first practice session.

PREDICTED WEATHERDRY
24°Cair38°Ctrack3%13 km/h
FASTEST CONSTRUCTORMercedes
VICTORY MARGIN0.352sec
TEAMMATE BATTLES

Head-to-head.

P10+1.850s
+2.211sP15

Gasly's superior experience on technical street circuits allows him to build rhythm faster in the opening session than the rookie Colapinto.

P22+3.578s
+2.700sP20

Alonso is a master of the Monaco circuit and will be significantly quicker to find the limits of the track than Stroll in FP1.

P7+1.365s
+1.772sP9

Hulkenberg's veteran experience is invaluable at Monaco for navigating tight sections early in the weekend compared to the rookie Bortoleto.

P14+2.192s
+3.482sP21

Perez is currently struggling with form and confidence, giving Bottas the edge to execute a cleaner, faster FP1 session.

P2+0.226s
LeaderP1

Leclerc is historically exceptional in Monaco and will likely dial in his setup quicker than Hamilton for this specific home-race venue.

P17+2.355s
+2.314sP16

Ocon's experience in managing race weekends gives him a slight advantage in FP1 pace over Bearman.

P8+1.587s
+1.313sP6

Norris typically demonstrates superior raw one-lap pace, which is the primary objective during the initial phases of FP1.

P4+0.559s
+1.005sP5

Antonelli is currently in peak form with three consecutive race wins and topped FP1 in Canada, showing he is the driver to beat.

P19+2.453s
+2.411sP18

Lawson has a better grasp of race weekends and track positioning, which is crucial for building speed at Monaco compared to the rookie Lindblad.

P3+0.513s
+2.170sP13

Verstappen is the benchmark for high-downforce, technical street circuits and will almost certainly be faster than his less-experienced teammate.

P12+2.063s
+2.011sP11

Sainz's precise driving style is well-suited to the demands of Monaco, allowing him to push earlier than Albon.

PREDICTION ACCURACY

The scorecard.

FASTEST
TOP 580%
CONSTRUCTOR
MARGIN0.35s / 0.23s
CONDITIONSdry / dry
TEMPERATURE24° / 24°
H2H7/11
AI FP1 ANALYSIS

The debrief.

Charles Leclerc lays down a statement of intent on home soil as Ferrari tops a congested FP1 in Monte Carlo.
The 2026 Monaco Grand Prix weekend got off to a flying start as Charles Leclerc reminded the field exactly why he is a force to be reckoned with at home, topping the timesheets with a blistering 1:13.978. While the early phase of the session was dedicated to data gathering—with plenty of aero rakes spotted across the pit lane—the focus quickly shifted to qualifying simulations as teams hunted for track position. The Ferrari driver looked incredibly planted, finding rhythm through the technical sectors that the rest of the field struggled to match consistently. Mercedes appears to be the primary threat to Ferrari this weekend, with Lewis Hamilton slotting into P2, though the real surprise was the confidence shown by Kimi Antonelli. Finishing P4 in his first-ever Monaco practice session is a significant achievement, outpacing his more experienced teammate George Russell. Meanwhile, Max Verstappen took P3 for Red Bull Racing; while he isn't quite at the top, the team is clearly prioritizing balance over raw lap time, with the RB23 looking stable despite the inherent struggles of navigating the Principality's tight confines.
KEY MOMENTS
RUN1
Initial setup verification and aerodynamic rake testing
Teams focused on verifying correlation between the wind tunnel and the unique, high-downforce demands of the street circuit.
RUN2
Charles Leclerc sets the 1:13.978 benchmark
The Monegasque driver signals his intent early, showing immediate comfort and pace on home turf.
RUN3
Rookie Kimi Antonelli slots into P4
A standout performance for the young Mercedes driver, demonstrating the maturity required for the narrow streets on his first outing.
RUN4
Accelerated track evolution and near-misses
As the surface rubbered in, traffic management became the primary challenge, with several drivers flirting with the barriers at the Swimming Pool.
AI'S DRIVER PICK
Kimi Antonelli
To be P4 on his first-ever Monaco outing, while keeping the car off the walls, is a testament to his exceptional talent and maturity.
STRATEGY
The data from FP1 suggests a high-degradation scenario on the soft compounds, meaning qualifying will be the paramount focus for the entire grid. While we saw plenty of long-run attempts, the 'Monaco Train' effect is already evident; track position will be absolute gold, and teams are already shifting their setup focus to prioritize low-speed traction and corner exit over outright top speed. Track evolution was significant, with lap times dropping rapidly. Teams that prioritized finding a stable platform that allows the driver to attack the curbs—like Ferrari and Mercedes—will hold the advantage. Expect a heavy emphasis on tire preservation during Saturday's final practice, as finding the 'sweet spot' for the tire warmup in qualifying will likely decide the front row.
AI PREDICTION REVIEW
We were slightly optimistic regarding a Mercedes 1-2 sweep in FP1, as Ferrari has arrived with a more aggressive pace than anticipated.
HIT: We correctly identified Kimi Antonelli as a major contender, and his P4 result proves he is a genuine threat this weekend.
MISS: We underestimated the pure one-lap pace of Charles Leclerc and Ferrari, who have clearly prioritized an aggressive setup for the opening practice.
INCIDENTS & PENALTIES
130 EVENTS
DELETED LAPS
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PENALTIES
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SC / VSC
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RED FLAGS
2
CAR 16 (LEC) TIME 2:14.473 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 5 LAP 2 13:31:16
CAR 43 (COL) TIME 1:26.305 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 3 13:32:58
CAR 16 (LEC) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 5 13:36:30 (PIT)
CAR 14 (ALO) LAP DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 5 13:37:10 (PIT)
CAR 55 (SAI) TIME 1:20.942 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 5 13:37:26
CAR 10 (GAS) TIME 1:18.683 DELETED - TRACK LIMITS AT TURN 10 LAP 6 13:38:28
CIRCUIT · CIRCUIT DE MONACO

The track.

S1
S2
S3
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LAP RECORD
LAPS / RACE
TRACK LENGTH
CORNERS
CIRCUIT TYPE
FIRST GRAND PRIX
CAPACITY
WEEKEND SCHEDULE
FP1
FRI 11:30
DONE
FP2
FRI 15:00
DONE
FP3
SAT 10:30
DONE
QUAL
SAT 14:00
DONE
RACE
SUN 13:00
DONE