SpanishグランプリMadrid
2026 Spanish Grand Prixの結果:Madringでのレース順位、表彰台、予選、ファステストラップ、ピットストップ、セクタータイム、さらにAI予測のスコアを掲載。2026年9月13日。
AIの予測結果
AIは勝者を外しました。
- P1ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedesNorrisLando Norris外れ
- P2VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull RacingAntonelliKimi Antonelli外れ
- P3NORRISLando NORRISMcLarenVerstappenMax Verstappen外れ
スコアカード
あなたの番
次戦: United States GP
予想締切まで
結果とAI予測の比較
キーモーメント
Kimi Antonelli capitalizes on a crucial Virtual Safety Car mix-up to claim victory at Madrid's inaugural Spanish Grand Prix.
- 1周目A chaotic start at the Madring sees Lando Norris hold pole position while Kimi Antonelli and Max Verstappen run wide, resulting in Antonelli cutting corners and later yielding position.Set an intense tone for the opening laps and kept the front-running order tightly packed before strategy took over.
- 6周目Lewis Hamilton suffers a sudden brake malfunction entering Turn 5, brushing the barrier and forcing an early retirement.Robbed Ferrari of a strong potential podium challenge and heavily hurt his championship standing.
- 16周目A Virtual Safety Car is deployed right after race leader Lando Norris passes pit entry, trapping him out for another slow-speed lap.Triggered a massive strategic swing, allowing Kimi Antonelli and the following pack to pit for a cheap stop while Norris fell down the order.
- 48周目Charles Leclerc finally pits from the lead after long holding out on hard tires hoping for a full Safety Car.Handed the net lead back to Kimi Antonelli, dropping Leclerc down to a lonely fourth place at the checkered flag.
直接対決
Lando Norris starts from pole position on a tight new street circuit where overtaking is extremely difficult, giving him a massive strategic advantage over Piastri in P7.
Kimi Antonelli starts on the front row in P2 with stellar championship momentum, whereas George Russell has ground to make up from P6.
Max Verstappen starts safely up on the second row in P3, holding a significant pace and grid advantage over teammate Liam Lawson in P8.
Lewis Hamilton narrowly out-qualified Leclerc to start P4, and his steady racecraft should keep him ahead on a track where passing is tough.
Franco Colapinto delivered a strong qualifying performance to start in the top ten at P9, well ahead of Pierre Gasly down in P14.
Arvid Lindblad lines up inside the top ten at P10, providing a solid cushion over the teammate who starts back in P15.
Nico Hulkenberg starts just ahead of Bortoleto in P11 and brings vast experience to defend track position on Madring's narrow layout.
Esteban Ocon starts from P13, while Oliver Bearman is forced to start from the back after missing qualifying due to a heavy FP3 crash.
Alexander Albon starts one spot ahead of home favorite Carlos Sainz in P16, giving him the slight track-position edge in a tight Williams intra-team battle.
Fernando Alonso starts from P18, whereas Lance Stroll is heavily penalized and starting from the back of the grid.
Sergio Perez out-qualified Valtteri Bottas and starts in P19, holding a slight grid advantage at the tail end of the field.
ウィークエンド
- セッションリプレイリプレイを見るラップごとの順位、ギャップ、フラッグ情報AIレース予想
予想の結論
ポールポジション予想P1AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes77%P2LeclercCharles LeclercFerrari68%P3PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren64%Kimi Antonelli has dominated the weekend practice sessions, topping both FP2 and FP3, and carries exceptional momentum with 7 wins this season.
天気予報DRY気温24°C路面温度41°C雨10%風12 km/hレースインシデント赤旗yes#ドライバーチーム自信度自信度P4NorrisLando NorrisMcLaren61%P5VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing58%P6RussellGeorge RussellMercedes55%P7HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari52%P8LawsonLiam LawsonRed Bull Racing48%P9HulkenbergNico HulkenbergAudi44%P10BortoletoGabriel BortoletoAudi41%番狂わせの敗退Pierre GaslyQ2で敗退: Despite showing flashes of pace, traffic and track evolution catch out Alpine in a tight midfield battle during Q2.クイックスタッツポールタイム差0.166その他の予想Q1最速Kimi Antonelli (0.241s)Q2最速Kimi Antonelli (0.183s)優勝コンストラクターMercedes予選結果結果
#ドライバーチームQ1Q2Q3P1NORRISLando NORRISMcLaren33.4691:33.46932.8731:32.87331.8241:31.824P2ANTONELLIKimi ANTONELLIMercedes33.2671:33.26732.5911:32.59131.8351:31.835P3VERSTAPPENMax VERSTAPPENRed Bull Racing33.3811:33.38132.4311:32.43131.9641:31.964P4HAMILTONLewis HAMILTONFerrari33.5311:33.53132.7101:32.71032.0131:32.013P5LECLERCCharles LECLERCFerrari33.5321:33.53232.7551:32.75532.0191:32.019P6RUSSELLGeorge RUSSELLMercedes33.2111:33.21132.8501:32.85032.1491:32.149P7PIASTRIOscar PIASTRIMcLaren33.8291:33.82933.2041:33.20432.2941:32.294P8LAWSONLiam LAWSONRed Bull Racing33.3101:33.31032.7801:32.78032.3161:32.316P9COLAPINTOFranco COLAPINTOAlpine33.9631:33.96333.0381:33.03832.9031:32.903P10LINDBLADArvid LINDBLADRacing Bulls34.3401:34.34033.2041:33.20433.0411:33.041P11HULKENBERGNico HULKENBERGOUT Q2Audi34.4171:34.41733.2231:33.223–P12BORTOLETOGabriel BORTOLETOOUT Q2Audi33.9861:33.98633.3881:33.388–P13OCONEsteban OCONOUT Q2Haas F1 Team34.6671:34.66733.6671:33.667–P14GASLYPierre GASLYOUT Q2Alpine34.2461:34.24633.7531:33.753–P15TSUNODAYuki TSUNODAゲストOUT Q2Racing Bulls34.3111:34.31134.0841:34.084–P16ALBONAlexander ALBONOUT Q2Williams35.3071:35.30735.5321:35.532–P17SAINZCarlos SAINZOUT Q1Williams35.3121:35.312––P18ALONSOFernando ALONSOOUT Q1Aston Martin35.3881:35.388––P19PEREZSergio PEREZOUT Q1Cadillac35.9131:35.913––P20BOTTASValtteri BOTTASOUT Q1Cadillac38.0111:38.011––天候ドライ気温30.8°C路面温度53.8°C湿度18%風1.2 km/h予想精度スコアカード
予想精度予想 vs 実績項目予想実績結果脱落予想Q2Q2天候drydry気温24°31°レッドフラッグyesno予想ポールポジションQ1最速Q2最速TOP 580%コンストラクターチーム予想7/9 件の的中直接対決5/11チームメイト対決直接対決
ドライバーリザルトGasly holds a strong 9–3 qualifying head-to-head advantage this season and shows superior one-lap execution consistency.
Alonso dominates the intra-team qualifying battle 10–2 and consistently extracts more single-lap speed from the car.
Hulkenberg has shown slightly better qualifying pace through practice sessions this weekend at Madrid.
Perez edged out his teammate in FP3 and has a marginal historical edge in tightly contested qualifying margins.
Leclerc has consistently showcased blistering one-lap speed in practice sessions, securing top-two times leading into qualifying.
Bearman leads the season qualifying head-to-head 9–4 and has maintained a consistent upper hand over Ocon.
Norris leads the internal qualifying battle 8–5 and historically converts crucial qualifying sessions with precision.
Antonelli has dominated practice sessions at Madrid, topping FP2 and FP3 while leading the championship standings.
Lawson showed stronger pace in FP3 and holds the upper hand in the season qualifying head-to-head.
Verstappen remains Red Bull's ultimate qualifying benchmark despite a challenging overall season form index.
Sainz commands a dominant 10–2 qualifying record over Albon this season and brings immense experience to single-lap runs.
AI予選分析レース分析
Lando Norris snatches a stunning maiden pole position at the inaugural Madring circuit, pipping Kimi Antonelli by a razor-thin margin in a frantic qualifying showdown.The historic first-ever Formula 1 qualifying session at the newly minted Madring circuit delivered intense drama from the outset. Q1 immediately crushed local expectations as home favorites Carlos Sainz and Fernando Alonso failed to escape the drop zone, exiting alongside Alexander Albon, Sergio Perez, and Valtteri Bottas in a tightly compressed bottom field. As the session progressed into Q2, track evolution accelerated rapidly, catching out several seasoned campaigners. Audi’s Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto fell just short of the top-ten shootout, while Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly were similarly left stranded. Emerging talents like Alpine's Franco Colapinto and Racing Bulls rookie Arvid Lindblad capitalized brilliantly, squeezing their cars into Q3 against the odds. The pole shootout in Q3 was a masterclass in tension. Lewis Hamilton initially laid down the marker with a sensational provisional lap for Ferrari, leaving Mercedes' title leader Kimi Antonelli and Red Bull's Max Verstappen chasing. However, the final runs saw the track at its absolute peak. Antonelli fired in a stellar effort to temporarily seize control, only for Lando Norris to pull off a sensational final-gasp masterclass in his McLaren, snatching pole position by a razor-thin margin.戦略Teams faced a massive challenge mastering the technical layout and rapid track evolution of the Madring circuit, where finding clean air was paramount. With no red flags interrupting the flow, strategists heavily focused on fine-tuning tire preparation windows and timing final runs to catch the peak grip of the asphalt. The importance of a well-managed out-lap could not be overstated, as traffic management dictated who had optimal tire temperatures for their flying laps. While some teams struggled with balance over the curbing, those who prioritized a late run in Q3—most notably McLaren and Mercedes—reaped the ultimate rewards as the track rubbered in.ハイライトQ1Home heroes Carlos Sainz and Fernando Alonso suffer shock Q1 exits, bowing out early alongside Alexander Albon and the Cadillac pair.Stunned the local Spanish crowd and set up a tense, unpredictable atmosphere for the rest of the session.Q2Franco Colapinto and Arvid Lindblad punch above their weight to sneak into Q3, while Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto narrowly miss out for Audi.Highlighted tight midfield margins and rewarded rookie and satellite team resilience.Q3Lewis Hamilton sets a blistering provisional pace in the opening Q3 runs before Lando Norris and Kimi Antonelli trade blows on the final attempts.Triggered a thrilling multi-team pole battle resolved only in the dying seconds of the session.AIの注目ドライバーFranco ColapintoExtracting maximum performance from the Alpine package to secure a brilliant Q9 starting berth in a hyper-competitive midfield.AI予想レビューOur predictions achieved a modest 38% overall accuracy score, correctly anticipating key midfield shakeups like Pierre Gasly's Q2 elimination but underestimating the late-session pole charge from McLaren.的中: Accurately pinpointed Pierre Gasly's surprise elimination in Q2 amidst the fierce midfield traffic.外れ: Predicted a Mercedes pole position for Kimi Antonelli, missing Lando Norris's breathtaking final-sector surge that snatched pole for McLaren. - セッションリプレイリプレイを見るラップごとの順位、ギャップ、フラッグ情報AIレース予想
予想の結論
予選終了後表彰台予想P1NorrisLando NorrisMcLaren67%P2AntonelliKimi AntonelliMercedes58%P3VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing44%Starting from pole position around the tight and twisty Madring layout, Norris holds the decisive track position advantage on a circuit where overtaking is extremely difficult. McLaren demonstrated exceptional high-temperature tire management and race pace, giving Norris the tools to control the tempo from Turn 1.
天気予報DRY気温32°C路面温度49°C雨0%風9 km/hレースインシデントセーフティカー×1yesVSC×1yes赤旗no#ドライバーチーム自信度自信度P4HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari39%P5RussellGeorge RussellMercedes37%P6LeclercCharles LeclercFerrari34%P7PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren36%P8LawsonLiam LawsonRed Bull Racing31%P9ColapintoFranco ColapintoAlpine28%P10LindbladArvid LindbladRacing Bulls26%注目ポイント◆Track position and Turn 1 layout: With only 200m from pole to the braking zone of Turn 1 and tight concrete barriers lining the Madring street sectors, passing in dirty air is exceptionally difficult, heavily rewarding front-row starters.◆Extreme thermal degradation: Ambient temperatures reaching 32°C and track surface temperatures nearing 50°C will trigger heavy thermal stress on the tires, particularly through the 24% banked Turn 12 'La Monumental'.◆High neutralization probability: As an inaugural street race featuring tight walls and minimal runoff, any collision will immediately bring out a Safety Car or VSC, favoring drivers who manage stints flexibly.波乱の可能性Max VerstappenIf front-row starters Norris and Antonelli aggressively squeeze each other into Turn 1, Verstappen could dive down the inside from P3 to claim track position and dictate race strategy from the lead.クイックスタッツ優勝タイム差2.1完走扱い20その他の予想ファステストラップKimi Antonelli優勝コンストラクターMcLarenFLコンストラクターMercedesピット戦略最初のピットインYuki Tsunoda最後のピットインFernando Alonso最速ピットストップRed Bull Racingチーム予想チームトップ3トップ6ポイントフィニッシュMcLaren––✓✓Mercedes–✓✓✓Ferrari–✓✓✓Red Bull Racing––✓✓Alpine–––✓Racing Bulls––✓✓Audi–––✓Haas F1 Team–––✓Williams–––✓Aston Martin–––✓Cadillac–––✓予想項目確率判定Will Lance Stroll fail to finish (DNF) the race due to reliability or incident?37%いいえWill a driver from outside the top 3 Constructor teams (Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren) finish on the podium?28%いいえWill there be more than 1 Safety Car deployed during the race at the debut Madring circuit?72%はいWill a first-lap incident occur that brings out a safety car or red flag?64%はいWill an incident at the 24% banked La Monumental turn cause a race neutralization?61%はいWill the polesitter convert their grid position into a race victory at Madring's inaugural Grand Prix?58%はいWill the WDC points gap between P1 Andrea Kimi Antonelli and P2 George Russell shrink by the end of this weekend?46%いいえWill the race winner also set the fastest lap of the race?41%いいえWill there be a lead change within the final 10 laps of the race?34%いいえファン予想カテゴリー予想確率決定放送Will the international broadcast show a cutaway of Madrid's famous 'El Oso y el Madroño' bear and strawberry tree statue during the race?65%ありカオスWill a safety car be deployed following an incident at Madring's high-speed La Monumental corner during the race?58%あり ✗文化Will the broadcast capture a fan wearing a traditional Madrileño Chulapo flat cap in the grandstands during the race?45%ありAIレース分析レース分析
Kimi Antonelli capitalizes on a crucial Virtual Safety Car mix-up to claim victory at Madrid's inaugural Spanish Grand Prix.Formula 1’s debut at Madrid's tight, unforgiving Madring circuit delivered a tactical chess match rather than an overtaking thriller. Pole-sitter Lando Norris made a clean getaway when the lights went out, though a chaotic first lap saw fierce battling behind him as Kimi Antonelli and Max Verstappen navigated the narrow street layout, with Antonelli briefly cutting corners before giving positions back. Early drama struck Ferrari on Lap 6 when Lewis Hamilton suffered a sudden brake failure into Turn 5, brushing the barriers and forcing a premature retirement that dashed his podium hopes. For the first stint, Norris looked entirely in control, managing a comfortable gap at the front. However, the race was flipped on its head on Lap 16 when a Virtual Safety Car was deployed just moments after Norris had flashed past the pitlane entry. While chasing cars dived straight into the pits for fresh rubber, Norris was forced to complete a full lap at delta speeds before pitting next time around, compounded by a sluggish service from McLaren. As Charles Leclerc elected to stay out on a high-risk long stint hoping for a full safety car neutralization, Antonelli inherited control of the race. Once Leclerc finally pitted on Lap 48, Antonelli cruised to his eighth victory of the season. Max Verstappen drove a stellar recovery to finish second, while an incensed yet resilient Norris salvaged the final step of the podium ahead of Leclerc and George Russell.戦略The race was entirely defined by the timing of the Lap 16 Virtual Safety Car. Teams tracking a standard one-stop strategy scrambled as the VSC pit window opened up. Mercedes timed Antonelli's stop to perfection, whereas McLaren's poor timing—calling Norris in just after he missed the pit lane entry under the initial trigger—cost them crucial seconds and track position. Meanwhile, Ferrari's gamble to leave Charles Leclerc out on a lengthy alternative hard-tyre stint ultimately failed to net a full safety car, forcing a late race stop that dropped him off the podium.ハイライト1周目A chaotic start at the Madring sees Lando Norris hold pole position while Kimi Antonelli and Max Verstappen run wide, resulting in Antonelli cutting corners and later yielding position.Set an intense tone for the opening laps and kept the front-running order tightly packed before strategy took over.6周目Lewis Hamilton suffers a sudden brake malfunction entering Turn 5, brushing the barrier and forcing an early retirement.Robbed Ferrari of a strong potential podium challenge and heavily hurt his championship standing.16周目A Virtual Safety Car is deployed right after race leader Lando Norris passes pit entry, trapping him out for another slow-speed lap.Triggered a massive strategic swing, allowing Kimi Antonelli and the following pack to pit for a cheap stop while Norris fell down the order.48周目Charles Leclerc finally pits from the lead after long holding out on hard tires hoping for a full Safety Car.Handed the net lead back to Kimi Antonelli, dropping Leclerc down to a lonely fourth place at the checkered flag.ドライバー・オブ・ザ・デイMax VerstappenFans voted Max Verstappen Driver of the Day after he bounced back from an early opening-lap scuffle, managed a first-lap position swap with composure, and extracted maximum performance from his Red Bull to secure a brilliant P2 finish.AIの注目ドライバーKimi AntonelliThe Mercedes youngster kept his nose clean through early chaos and executed a flawless tactical race, seizing every opportunistic opening to maximize his championship lead.AI予想レビューOur pre-race predictions achieved an overall accuracy score of 0.29, correctly anticipating dry weather conditions and a neutralisation phase, but getting heavily derailed by the chaotic VSC dynamics and unexpected grid shifts.的中: We correctly predicted the deployment of a Virtual Safety Car neutralization and accurately pegged the dry conditions with track temperatures hovering near 50°C.外れ: We missed the podium order completely—projecting Lando Norris to win from pole rather than factoring in the cruel VSC timing that dropped him to third, while also overestimating the total number of classified finishers.
フリー走行
- フリー走行1最速: George RUSSELLAI不正解
- フリー走行2最速: Kimi ANTONELLIAI不正解
- フリー走行3最速: Kimi ANTONELLIAI正解
フリー走行1
予想の結論
Andrea Kimi Antonelli has dominated the season form index and Mercedes has shown exceptional pace out of the box in practice sessions.
FP1 結果
スコアカード
直接対決
Pierre Gasly holds a 9-3 qualifying head-to-head advantage over Colapinto this season and brings consistent one-lap execution to the brand-new Madring layout.
Alonso dominates their intra-team qualifying battle 10-2 and will adapt quickly to the technical demands of the new Madrid circuit.
Bortoleto holds a slight 7-6 edge in their qualifying head-to-head and has shown strong adaptability on unfamiliar tracks.
Perez matches Bottas closely across the season but edges past in early-weekend session progression data.
Hamilton's strong recency-weighted form and Leclerc's historical over-rating bias tilt this tightly contested Ferrari battle toward Lewis in FP1.
Bearman leads Ocon 9-4 in qualifying head-to-heads and consistently extracts strong single-lap pace early in weekends.
Norris leads their qualifying battle 8-5 and generally demonstrates superior initial pace finding on green track surfaces.
Championship leader Antonelli has been stellar in session pace and holds a 7-6 head-to-head advantage over Russell.
Lawson leads 6-5 head-to-head and brings valuable experience in setting up cars quickly on brand-new circuits.
Verstappen's unmatched ability to find the limit immediately on new tracks gives him the edge in opening practice.
Sainz commands a 10-2 qualifying advantage over Albon and will be exceptionally motivated on home soil at the new Madrid track.
レース分析
フリー走行2
予想の結論
George Russell topped FP1 and carries strong Mercedes pace into the afternoon qualifying simulations at the Madring.
FP2 結果
スコアカード
直接対決
Gasly holds a strong 9-3 qualifying head-to-head advantage over his teammate this season and consistently edges out single-lap pace in practice sessions.
Alonso dominates the internal head-to-head at Aston Martin (10-2) and maintains a significant performance edge over Stroll across all practice conditions.
Hulkenberg showed superior pace in FP1 at Madrid and brings vast experience to extract quick single-lap times during FP2 simulations.
Perez has shown slightly better adaptation in recent sessions, and Bottas suffers from a heavy historical model over-rating bias in performance projections.
Leclerc edges the season qualifying battle 7-6 and showed stronger outright pace in the opening practice session at the Madrid circuit.
Bearman leads 9-4 in their qualifying head-to-head battle this season, giving him the edge in extracting one-lap qualifying simulations.
Norris leads the intra-team qualifying battle 8-5 and posted a quicker time in FP1, establishing himself as the benchmark McLaren driver for FP2.
Russell topped the timesheets in FP1 at Madrid and typically shines in high-fuel and low-fuel practice pace evaluations.
Lindblad outpaced Lawson in FP1 and benefits from an under-rating correction factor that points to strong upward momentum in practice performance.
Verstappen remains Red Bull's primary talisman and showed competitive speed in FP1, outperforming team benchmark expectations.
Sainz holds a commanding 10-2 qualifying advantage over Albon this season and comfortably led the Williams intra-team battle in FP1.
レース分析
フリー走行3
予想の結論
After topping FP2 and showing exceptional pace throughout the weekend, Antonelli is well-positioned to lead the final practice session for Mercedes.
FP3 結果
スコアカード
直接対決
Gasly maintains a commanding 9-3 qualifying head-to-head advantage this season and consistently superior single-lap pace in the Alpine.
Alonso dominates their intra-team battle (10-2) and Stroll suffers from a severe performance over-rating bias in modeling.
Bortoleto holds a narrow 7-6 advantage over Hulkenberg this season and has shown slightly better adaptation on new circuits.
Bottas carries a heavy negative systemic bias in performance tracking, giving Perez the edge in extracting FP3 lap time.
Leclerc showed stellar one-lap speed by finishing inside the top three in both Friday practice sessions at the Madring.
Bearman leads their qualifying head-to-head 9-4 and has been the stronger single-lap performer for Haas throughout the year.
Norris leads their seasonal qualifying duel 8-5 and boasts superior overall form index metrics heading into Saturday.
Antonelli topped FP2 at the Madring and leads the championship momentum with phenomenal recent form.
Lawson holds a 6-5 head-to-head edge and maintains slight seniority in extracting peak performance during high-stakes practice sessions.
Verstappen retains a definitive raw pace advantage over his rookie teammate across practice sessions despite Red Bull's fluctuating form.
Sainz commands a crushing 10-2 qualifying record over Albon and excels heavily in one-lap qualifying simulations.
レース分析
Spanish Grand Prix 予想に関するよくある質問
- 2026 Spanish Grand Prix (Madrid) の優勝予想は?
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- 2026 Spanish Grand Prix (Madrid) の表彰台予想は?
- P1: Lando Norris。P2: Kimi Antonelli。P3: Max Verstappen。
- 2026 Spanish Grand Prix (Madrid) のポールポジション予想は?
- Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
- Spanish Grand Prix の予想においてAIが考慮する要素は?
- Track position and Turn 1 layout: With only 200m from pole to the braking zone of Turn 1 and tight concrete barriers lining the Madring street sectors, passing in dirty air is exceptionally difficult, heavily rewarding front-row starters.. Extreme thermal degradation: Ambient temperatures reaching 32°C and track surface temperatures nearing 50°C will trigger heavy thermal stress on the tires, particularly through the 24% banked Turn 12 'La Monumental'..